Differential flood insurance participation and housing market trajectories under future coastal flooding in the United States
Abstract Communities respond to flooding events based upon risk perceptions and available adaptive behaviors (e.g., emigrating, purchasing insurance, constructing levees). Across the United States, sea level rise, intensifying storm-surges, and extreme rainfall may alter human-flood dynamics. Here,...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2024-11-01
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| Series: | Communications Earth & Environment |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01848-z |
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| author | Sandeep Poudel Rebecca Elliott Richard Anyah Zbigniew Grabowski James Knighton |
| author_facet | Sandeep Poudel Rebecca Elliott Richard Anyah Zbigniew Grabowski James Knighton |
| author_sort | Sandeep Poudel |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Communities respond to flooding events based upon risk perceptions and available adaptive behaviors (e.g., emigrating, purchasing insurance, constructing levees). Across the United States, sea level rise, intensifying storm-surges, and extreme rainfall may alter human-flood dynamics. Here, we use calibrated Socio-Environmental models of contiguous US coastal census tracts and two shared socio-economic pathways (SSP245 and SSP585). We project that by 2100, total flood insurance claims will increase by +25% to +130% under low (SSP245) and high (SSP585) emissions scenarios, respectively. The increase in flood insurance claims will impact mainly socially vulnerable communities. Further, we project that active NFIP policies will increase from +30% under low emission scenario to +60% under high emission scenario. Our finding also suggests the growing debt of the National Flood Insurance Program under higher emissions. Raising the water elevation threshold for coastal flooding by +1 meter via levees may reduce future surge-related losses by 95% and 40% under low and high emission scenarios and stabilize housing markets. Our future projections of flood insurance claims, policy coverage, and the impact of water elevation serve as credible hypotheses for the evolution of human flood dynamics under climate change. They can inform national flood policy and future research. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-9c4f9fd8122d451c8befc3fe0d683959 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2662-4435 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-11-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Communications Earth & Environment |
| spelling | doaj-art-9c4f9fd8122d451c8befc3fe0d6839592024-11-10T12:44:00ZengNature PortfolioCommunications Earth & Environment2662-44352024-11-01511910.1038/s43247-024-01848-zDifferential flood insurance participation and housing market trajectories under future coastal flooding in the United StatesSandeep Poudel0Rebecca Elliott1Richard Anyah2Zbigniew Grabowski3James Knighton4Department of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of ConnecticutDepartment of Sociology, London School of Economics and Political ScienceDepartment of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of ConnecticutDepartment of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of ConnecticutDepartment of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of ConnecticutAbstract Communities respond to flooding events based upon risk perceptions and available adaptive behaviors (e.g., emigrating, purchasing insurance, constructing levees). Across the United States, sea level rise, intensifying storm-surges, and extreme rainfall may alter human-flood dynamics. Here, we use calibrated Socio-Environmental models of contiguous US coastal census tracts and two shared socio-economic pathways (SSP245 and SSP585). We project that by 2100, total flood insurance claims will increase by +25% to +130% under low (SSP245) and high (SSP585) emissions scenarios, respectively. The increase in flood insurance claims will impact mainly socially vulnerable communities. Further, we project that active NFIP policies will increase from +30% under low emission scenario to +60% under high emission scenario. Our finding also suggests the growing debt of the National Flood Insurance Program under higher emissions. Raising the water elevation threshold for coastal flooding by +1 meter via levees may reduce future surge-related losses by 95% and 40% under low and high emission scenarios and stabilize housing markets. Our future projections of flood insurance claims, policy coverage, and the impact of water elevation serve as credible hypotheses for the evolution of human flood dynamics under climate change. They can inform national flood policy and future research.https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01848-z |
| spellingShingle | Sandeep Poudel Rebecca Elliott Richard Anyah Zbigniew Grabowski James Knighton Differential flood insurance participation and housing market trajectories under future coastal flooding in the United States Communications Earth & Environment |
| title | Differential flood insurance participation and housing market trajectories under future coastal flooding in the United States |
| title_full | Differential flood insurance participation and housing market trajectories under future coastal flooding in the United States |
| title_fullStr | Differential flood insurance participation and housing market trajectories under future coastal flooding in the United States |
| title_full_unstemmed | Differential flood insurance participation and housing market trajectories under future coastal flooding in the United States |
| title_short | Differential flood insurance participation and housing market trajectories under future coastal flooding in the United States |
| title_sort | differential flood insurance participation and housing market trajectories under future coastal flooding in the united states |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01848-z |
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