PCA-FSA-MLR Model and Its Application in Runoff Forecast

PCA-FSA-MLR Model and Its Application in Runoff Forecast

To improve the accuracy of runoff forecast,and establish a runoff forecast model combining principal component analysis (PCA),future search algorithm (FSA),and multiple linear regression (MLR),this paper reduces the dimensionality of the sample data by PCA,selects 8 standard test functions and simul...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: GUO Cunwen, CUI Dongwen
Format: Article
Language:zho
Published: Editorial Office of Pearl River 2021-01-01
Series:Renmin Zhujiang
Subjects:
runoff forecast
principal component analysis (PCA)
future search algorithm (FSA)
multiple linear regression (MLR)
data dimensionality reduction
simulation and verification
parameter optimization
Online Access:http://www.renminzhujiang.cn/thesisDetails#10.3969/j.issn.1001-9235.2021.06.014
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Summary:To improve the accuracy of runoff forecast,and establish a runoff forecast model combining principal component analysis (PCA),future search algorithm (FSA),and multiple linear regression (MLR),this paper reduces the dimensionality of the sample data by PCA,selects 8 standard test functions and simulates and verifies FSA under different dimensional conditions,optimizes MLR constant terms and partial regression coefficients by FSA,proposes a PCA-FSA-MLR runoff forecast model,constructs PCA-LS-MLR,PCA-FSA-SVM,and PCA-SVM models with dimensionality reduction processing by PCA and FSA-MLR,LS-MLR,FSA-SVM,and SVM without dimensionality reduction processing as a comparison model,and verifies each model through forecasting the annual runoff and monthly runoff in December of Longtan station in Yunnan Province.The results show that:①FSA has better optimization accuracy and global extremum search ability under different dimensional conditions;②The average absolute relative error of the annual runoff and monthly runoff in December of Longtan station through PCA-FSA-MLR model are 1.63% and 3.91% respectively,and its forecast accuracy is better than the other 7 models,with higher forecast accuracy and stronger generalization ability;③For the same model,the forecast accuracy after dimensionality reduction processing by PCA is better than that without dimensionality reduction processing,so the data dimensionality reduction by PCA is helpful to improve the forecast accuracy of models.
ISSN:1001-9235

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