Confidence Regions for Steady-State Probabilities and Additive Functionals Based on a Single Sample Path of an Ergodic Markov Chain

Discrete, finite-state Markov chains are applied in many different fields. When a system is modeled as a discrete, finite-state Markov chain, the asymptotic properties of the system, such as the steady-state distribution, are often estimated based on a single, empirically observable sample path of t...

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Main Authors: Yann Vestring, Javad Tavakoli
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2024-11-01
Series:Mathematics
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Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/12/23/3641
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author Yann Vestring
Javad Tavakoli
author_facet Yann Vestring
Javad Tavakoli
author_sort Yann Vestring
collection DOAJ
description Discrete, finite-state Markov chains are applied in many different fields. When a system is modeled as a discrete, finite-state Markov chain, the asymptotic properties of the system, such as the steady-state distribution, are often estimated based on a single, empirically observable sample path of the system, whereas the actual steady-state distribution is unknown. A question that arises is: how close is the empirically estimated steady-state distribution to the actual steady-state distribution? In this paper, we propose a method to numerically determine asymptotically exact confidence regions for the steady-state probabilities and confidence intervals for additive functionals of an ergodic Markov chain based on a single sample path.
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spelling doaj-art-9ae9d3b35513451da825ec4a12499da82024-12-13T16:27:16ZengMDPI AGMathematics2227-73902024-11-011223364110.3390/math12233641Confidence Regions for Steady-State Probabilities and Additive Functionals Based on a Single Sample Path of an Ergodic Markov ChainYann Vestring0Javad Tavakoli1Department of Mathematics, University of British Columbia Okanagan, 3187 University Way, Kelowna, BC V1V 1V7, CanadaDepartment of Mathematics, University of British Columbia Okanagan, 3187 University Way, Kelowna, BC V1V 1V7, CanadaDiscrete, finite-state Markov chains are applied in many different fields. When a system is modeled as a discrete, finite-state Markov chain, the asymptotic properties of the system, such as the steady-state distribution, are often estimated based on a single, empirically observable sample path of the system, whereas the actual steady-state distribution is unknown. A question that arises is: how close is the empirically estimated steady-state distribution to the actual steady-state distribution? In this paper, we propose a method to numerically determine asymptotically exact confidence regions for the steady-state probabilities and confidence intervals for additive functionals of an ergodic Markov chain based on a single sample path.https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/12/23/3641Markov chainestimationsteady-state distributionconfidence intervalconfidence region
spellingShingle Yann Vestring
Javad Tavakoli
Confidence Regions for Steady-State Probabilities and Additive Functionals Based on a Single Sample Path of an Ergodic Markov Chain
Mathematics
Markov chain
estimation
steady-state distribution
confidence interval
confidence region
title Confidence Regions for Steady-State Probabilities and Additive Functionals Based on a Single Sample Path of an Ergodic Markov Chain
title_full Confidence Regions for Steady-State Probabilities and Additive Functionals Based on a Single Sample Path of an Ergodic Markov Chain
title_fullStr Confidence Regions for Steady-State Probabilities and Additive Functionals Based on a Single Sample Path of an Ergodic Markov Chain
title_full_unstemmed Confidence Regions for Steady-State Probabilities and Additive Functionals Based on a Single Sample Path of an Ergodic Markov Chain
title_short Confidence Regions for Steady-State Probabilities and Additive Functionals Based on a Single Sample Path of an Ergodic Markov Chain
title_sort confidence regions for steady state probabilities and additive functionals based on a single sample path of an ergodic markov chain
topic Markov chain
estimation
steady-state distribution
confidence interval
confidence region
url https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/12/23/3641
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AT javadtavakoli confidenceregionsforsteadystateprobabilitiesandadditivefunctionalsbasedonasinglesamplepathofanergodicmarkovchain