Irreversibility of ENSO impacts on the wintertime anomalous Western North Pacific anticyclone to CO2 forcing
Abstract During the boreal winter, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences the East Asia-western North Pacific (WNP) climate by triggering an anomalous WNP anticyclone (WNPAC). Analysis of a suite of coupled model projections under symmetric CO2 ramp-up (RU) and ramp-down (RD) scenarios,...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2024-12-01
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| Series: | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00854-4 |
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| author | Wen Zhang Weichen Tao Gang Huang Kaiming Hu Xia Qu Hainan Gong Kai Yang Ya Wang |
| author_facet | Wen Zhang Weichen Tao Gang Huang Kaiming Hu Xia Qu Hainan Gong Kai Yang Ya Wang |
| author_sort | Wen Zhang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract During the boreal winter, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences the East Asia-western North Pacific (WNP) climate by triggering an anomalous WNP anticyclone (WNPAC). Analysis of a suite of coupled model projections under symmetric CO2 ramp-up (RU) and ramp-down (RD) scenarios, the results reveal that WNPAC strengthens with increasing CO2 concentrations, peaks early in the CO2 RD phase, and then gradually weakens without fully returning to its initial state when CO2 concentrations restore. The irreversible recovery of WNPAC is related to enhanced negative precipitation anomalies in the tropical WNP and positive precipitation anomalies in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific. These changed precipitation anomalies are primarily driven by the climatological equatorial Pacific El Niño-like warming pattern due to various external and internal feedback processes. Our findings indicate that the irreversible change of WNPAC to CO2 forcing may hinder the winter monsoon and exacerbate climate risks in the East Asia-WNP region. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-9a4720f575d645f7a0b062e84d0cebae |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2397-3722 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-12-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| spelling | doaj-art-9a4720f575d645f7a0b062e84d0cebae2024-12-08T12:23:27ZengNature Portfolionpj Climate and Atmospheric Science2397-37222024-12-017111310.1038/s41612-024-00854-4Irreversibility of ENSO impacts on the wintertime anomalous Western North Pacific anticyclone to CO2 forcingWen Zhang0Weichen Tao1Gang Huang2Kaiming Hu3Xia Qu4Hainan Gong5Kai Yang6Ya Wang7State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of SciencesState Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of SciencesState Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of SciencesState Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of SciencesState Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of SciencesCenter for Monsoon System Research, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of SciencesCSIRO EnvironmentKey Laboratory of Earth System Numerical Modeling and Application, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of SciencesAbstract During the boreal winter, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences the East Asia-western North Pacific (WNP) climate by triggering an anomalous WNP anticyclone (WNPAC). Analysis of a suite of coupled model projections under symmetric CO2 ramp-up (RU) and ramp-down (RD) scenarios, the results reveal that WNPAC strengthens with increasing CO2 concentrations, peaks early in the CO2 RD phase, and then gradually weakens without fully returning to its initial state when CO2 concentrations restore. The irreversible recovery of WNPAC is related to enhanced negative precipitation anomalies in the tropical WNP and positive precipitation anomalies in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific. These changed precipitation anomalies are primarily driven by the climatological equatorial Pacific El Niño-like warming pattern due to various external and internal feedback processes. Our findings indicate that the irreversible change of WNPAC to CO2 forcing may hinder the winter monsoon and exacerbate climate risks in the East Asia-WNP region.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00854-4 |
| spellingShingle | Wen Zhang Weichen Tao Gang Huang Kaiming Hu Xia Qu Hainan Gong Kai Yang Ya Wang Irreversibility of ENSO impacts on the wintertime anomalous Western North Pacific anticyclone to CO2 forcing npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| title | Irreversibility of ENSO impacts on the wintertime anomalous Western North Pacific anticyclone to CO2 forcing |
| title_full | Irreversibility of ENSO impacts on the wintertime anomalous Western North Pacific anticyclone to CO2 forcing |
| title_fullStr | Irreversibility of ENSO impacts on the wintertime anomalous Western North Pacific anticyclone to CO2 forcing |
| title_full_unstemmed | Irreversibility of ENSO impacts on the wintertime anomalous Western North Pacific anticyclone to CO2 forcing |
| title_short | Irreversibility of ENSO impacts on the wintertime anomalous Western North Pacific anticyclone to CO2 forcing |
| title_sort | irreversibility of enso impacts on the wintertime anomalous western north pacific anticyclone to co2 forcing |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00854-4 |
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