Gap dynamics in the U.S. between urban areas in the current trend and in sustainable scenario
The gap between the projected urban areas in the current trend (UAC) and those in the sustainable scenario (UAS) is a critical factor in understanding whether cities can fulfill the requirements of sustainable development. However, there is a paucity of knowledge on this cutting-edge topic. Given th...
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Elsevier
2025-02-01
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| Series: | Geography and Sustainability |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666683924000701 |
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| author | Haoyu Wang Xiuyuan Zhang Shihong Du Yuyu Zhou Donghai Wu Qian Wang Lubin Bai Bo Liu Shuping Xiong |
| author_facet | Haoyu Wang Xiuyuan Zhang Shihong Du Yuyu Zhou Donghai Wu Qian Wang Lubin Bai Bo Liu Shuping Xiong |
| author_sort | Haoyu Wang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The gap between the projected urban areas in the current trend (UAC) and those in the sustainable scenario (UAS) is a critical factor in understanding whether cities can fulfill the requirements of sustainable development. However, there is a paucity of knowledge on this cutting-edge topic. Given the extensive and rapid urbanization in the United States (U.S.) over the past two centuries, accurately measuring this gap between UAS and UAC is of critical importance for advancing future sustainable urban development, as well as having significant global implications. This study finds that although the 740 U.S. cities have a large UAC in 2100, these cities will encompass a significant gap from UAC to UAS (approximately 165,000 km²), accounting for 30 % UAC at that time. The study also reveals the spatio-temporal heterogeneity of the gap. The gap initially increases before reaching a inflection point in 2090, and it disparates greatly from −100 % to 240 % at city level. While cities in the Northwestern U.S. maintain UAC that exceeds UAS from 2020 to 2100, cities in other regions shift from UAC that exceeds UAS to UAC that falls short of UAS. Filling the gap without additional urban growth planning could lead to a reduction of crop production ranging from 0.3 % to 3 % and a 0.68 % loss of biomass. Hence, dynamic and forward-looking urban planning is essential for addressing the challenges of sustainable development posed by urbanization, both within the U.S. and globally. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-966a22f050194d789b250072f3ca20e0 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2666-6839 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-02-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geography and Sustainability |
| spelling | doaj-art-966a22f050194d789b250072f3ca20e02025-01-12T05:26:08ZengElsevierGeography and Sustainability2666-68392025-02-0161100217Gap dynamics in the U.S. between urban areas in the current trend and in sustainable scenarioHaoyu Wang0Xiuyuan Zhang1Shihong Du2Yuyu Zhou3Donghai Wu4Qian Wang5Lubin Bai6Bo Liu7Shuping Xiong8College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China; Institute of Remote Sensing and GIS, Peking University, Beijing 100871, ChinaCollege of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China; Institute of Remote Sensing and GIS, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China; Corresponding author.College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871, ChinaDepartment of Geography, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR 999077, ChinaKey Laboratory of Vegetation Restoration and Management of Degraded Ecosystems, South China Botanical Garden, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510650, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, ChinaInstitute of Remote Sensing and GIS, Peking University, Beijing 100871, ChinaAerospace Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China; Key Laboratory of Network Information System Technology (NIST), Institute of Electronics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, ChinaInstitute of Remote Sensing and GIS, Peking University, Beijing 100871, ChinaThe gap between the projected urban areas in the current trend (UAC) and those in the sustainable scenario (UAS) is a critical factor in understanding whether cities can fulfill the requirements of sustainable development. However, there is a paucity of knowledge on this cutting-edge topic. Given the extensive and rapid urbanization in the United States (U.S.) over the past two centuries, accurately measuring this gap between UAS and UAC is of critical importance for advancing future sustainable urban development, as well as having significant global implications. This study finds that although the 740 U.S. cities have a large UAC in 2100, these cities will encompass a significant gap from UAC to UAS (approximately 165,000 km²), accounting for 30 % UAC at that time. The study also reveals the spatio-temporal heterogeneity of the gap. The gap initially increases before reaching a inflection point in 2090, and it disparates greatly from −100 % to 240 % at city level. While cities in the Northwestern U.S. maintain UAC that exceeds UAS from 2020 to 2100, cities in other regions shift from UAC that exceeds UAS to UAC that falls short of UAS. Filling the gap without additional urban growth planning could lead to a reduction of crop production ranging from 0.3 % to 3 % and a 0.68 % loss of biomass. Hence, dynamic and forward-looking urban planning is essential for addressing the challenges of sustainable development posed by urbanization, both within the U.S. and globally.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666683924000701Urban areas in the current trendUrban areas in the sustainable scenarioUrban gap dynamicsUrban sustainability |
| spellingShingle | Haoyu Wang Xiuyuan Zhang Shihong Du Yuyu Zhou Donghai Wu Qian Wang Lubin Bai Bo Liu Shuping Xiong Gap dynamics in the U.S. between urban areas in the current trend and in sustainable scenario Geography and Sustainability Urban areas in the current trend Urban areas in the sustainable scenario Urban gap dynamics Urban sustainability |
| title | Gap dynamics in the U.S. between urban areas in the current trend and in sustainable scenario |
| title_full | Gap dynamics in the U.S. between urban areas in the current trend and in sustainable scenario |
| title_fullStr | Gap dynamics in the U.S. between urban areas in the current trend and in sustainable scenario |
| title_full_unstemmed | Gap dynamics in the U.S. between urban areas in the current trend and in sustainable scenario |
| title_short | Gap dynamics in the U.S. between urban areas in the current trend and in sustainable scenario |
| title_sort | gap dynamics in the u s between urban areas in the current trend and in sustainable scenario |
| topic | Urban areas in the current trend Urban areas in the sustainable scenario Urban gap dynamics Urban sustainability |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666683924000701 |
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