Refining lake volume estimation and critical depth identification for enhanced glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) event anticipation
<p>Climate change leads to changes in glacier mass balance, including steady advancements and surges that reposition the glacier snouts. Glacier advancement can dam proglacial meltwater lakes. Within the Karakoram and surrounding regions, the positive feedback of climate change has resulted in...
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Copernicus Publications
2024-12-01
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| Series: | The Cryosphere |
| Online Access: | https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/18/5921/2024/tc-18-5921-2024.pdf |
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| author | N. A. Bazai N. A. Bazai P. A. Carling P. Cui P. Cui W. Hao W. Hao Z. Guotao L. Dingzhu L. Dingzhu L. Dingzhu J. Hassan |
| author_facet | N. A. Bazai N. A. Bazai P. A. Carling P. Cui P. Cui W. Hao W. Hao Z. Guotao L. Dingzhu L. Dingzhu L. Dingzhu J. Hassan |
| author_sort | N. A. Bazai |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>Climate change leads to changes in glacier mass balance, including steady advancements and surges that reposition the glacier snouts. Glacier advancement can dam proglacial meltwater lakes. Within the Karakoram and surrounding regions, the positive feedback of climate change has resulted in more frequent ice-dammed glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), often facilitated by englacial conduits. However, the complex and multi-factor processes of conduit development are difficult to measure. Determining the lake depths that might trigger GLOFs and the numerical model specifications for breaching is challenging. Empirical estimates of lake volumes, along with field-based monitoring of lake levels and depths and the assessment of GLOF hazards, enable warnings and damage mitigation. Using historical data, remote sensing techniques, high-resolution imagery, cross-correlation feature tracking, and field-based data, we identified the processes of lake formation, drainage timing, and triggering depth. We developed empirical approaches to determine lake volume and trigger water pressure leading to a GLOF. A correlation, albeit a weak one, between glacier surge velocity and lake volume reveals that glacier surge may play a crucial role in lake formation and thus controls the size and volume of the lake. Lake volume estimation involves geometric considerations of the lake basin shape. A GLOF becomes likely when the lake's normalized depth (<span class="inline-formula"><i>n</i><sup>′</sup></span>) exceeds 0.60, equivalent to a typical water pressure on the dam face of 510 kPa. These field and remotely sensed findings not only offer valuable insights for early warning procedures in the Karakoram but also suggest that similar approaches might be effectively applied to other mountain environments worldwide where GLOFs pose a hazard.</p> |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-95e11f7db39341479577d62b17cbe9fb |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1994-0416 1994-0424 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-12-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | The Cryosphere |
| spelling | doaj-art-95e11f7db39341479577d62b17cbe9fb2024-12-17T10:38:21ZengCopernicus PublicationsThe Cryosphere1994-04161994-04242024-12-01185921593810.5194/tc-18-5921-2024Refining lake volume estimation and critical depth identification for enhanced glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) event anticipationN. A. Bazai0N. A. Bazai1P. A. Carling2P. Cui3P. Cui4W. Hao5W. Hao6Z. Guotao7L. Dingzhu8L. Dingzhu9L. Dingzhu10J. Hassan11Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Earth Surface Process/Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Chengdu, ChinaChina-Pakistan Joint Research Center on Earth Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences and HEC, Islamabad, PakistanSchool of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, SO17 1BJ, UKChina-Pakistan Joint Research Center on Earth Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences and HEC, Islamabad, PakistanInstitute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, ChinaChina-Pakistan Joint Research Center on Earth Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences and HEC, Islamabad, PakistanInstitute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, ChinaInstitute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, ChinaInstitute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, ChinaEarth Surface Process Modelling, German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ), Potsdam, GermanyNational Disaster Reduction Centre of China, Ministry of Emergency Management, Beijing, ChinaDTU Space, Technical University of Denmark, 2800 Kongens Lyngby, Denmark<p>Climate change leads to changes in glacier mass balance, including steady advancements and surges that reposition the glacier snouts. Glacier advancement can dam proglacial meltwater lakes. Within the Karakoram and surrounding regions, the positive feedback of climate change has resulted in more frequent ice-dammed glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), often facilitated by englacial conduits. However, the complex and multi-factor processes of conduit development are difficult to measure. Determining the lake depths that might trigger GLOFs and the numerical model specifications for breaching is challenging. Empirical estimates of lake volumes, along with field-based monitoring of lake levels and depths and the assessment of GLOF hazards, enable warnings and damage mitigation. Using historical data, remote sensing techniques, high-resolution imagery, cross-correlation feature tracking, and field-based data, we identified the processes of lake formation, drainage timing, and triggering depth. We developed empirical approaches to determine lake volume and trigger water pressure leading to a GLOF. A correlation, albeit a weak one, between glacier surge velocity and lake volume reveals that glacier surge may play a crucial role in lake formation and thus controls the size and volume of the lake. Lake volume estimation involves geometric considerations of the lake basin shape. A GLOF becomes likely when the lake's normalized depth (<span class="inline-formula"><i>n</i><sup>′</sup></span>) exceeds 0.60, equivalent to a typical water pressure on the dam face of 510 kPa. These field and remotely sensed findings not only offer valuable insights for early warning procedures in the Karakoram but also suggest that similar approaches might be effectively applied to other mountain environments worldwide where GLOFs pose a hazard.</p>https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/18/5921/2024/tc-18-5921-2024.pdf |
| spellingShingle | N. A. Bazai N. A. Bazai P. A. Carling P. Cui P. Cui W. Hao W. Hao Z. Guotao L. Dingzhu L. Dingzhu L. Dingzhu J. Hassan Refining lake volume estimation and critical depth identification for enhanced glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) event anticipation The Cryosphere |
| title | Refining lake volume estimation and critical depth identification for enhanced glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) event anticipation |
| title_full | Refining lake volume estimation and critical depth identification for enhanced glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) event anticipation |
| title_fullStr | Refining lake volume estimation and critical depth identification for enhanced glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) event anticipation |
| title_full_unstemmed | Refining lake volume estimation and critical depth identification for enhanced glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) event anticipation |
| title_short | Refining lake volume estimation and critical depth identification for enhanced glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) event anticipation |
| title_sort | refining lake volume estimation and critical depth identification for enhanced glacial lake outburst flood glof event anticipation |
| url | https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/18/5921/2024/tc-18-5921-2024.pdf |
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