Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Building Energy Performance: A Future-Oriented Analysis on the UK

This research explores how climate change will affect building energy use across the UK by analysing both a conventional reference building design and a net-zero energy (NZEBs) alternative to assess how each would perform under future weather conditions. Using climate projections from databases like...

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Main Authors: Giulio Stefano Maria Viganò, Roberto Rugani, Marco Marengo, Marco Picco
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2024-12-01
Series:Architecture
Subjects:
Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/2673-8945/4/4/62
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author Giulio Stefano Maria Viganò
Roberto Rugani
Marco Marengo
Marco Picco
author_facet Giulio Stefano Maria Viganò
Roberto Rugani
Marco Marengo
Marco Picco
author_sort Giulio Stefano Maria Viganò
collection DOAJ
description This research explores how climate change will affect building energy use across the UK by analysing both a conventional reference building design and a net-zero energy (NZEBs) alternative to assess how each would perform under future weather conditions. Using climate projections from databases like Prometheus and Meteonorm, along with simulation tools like EnergyPlus and Freds4Buildings, the study evaluates the energy performance, costs, and GHG emissions of a case study building under current weather conditions, with 2030, 2050, and 2080 forecasts in three different UK locations: Exeter, Manchester, and Aberdeen. Results indicate that heating demand will decrease consistently over time across all locations by as much as 21% by 2080 while cooling demand will rise sharply. NZEBs proved more resilient to these changes, using less energy and producing fewer GHG emissions than conventional buildings, with 89% reductions in emissions even with increased cooling needs. Accounting for future weather helps both understand the risks of conventional design, with a number of scenarios experiencing overheating in 2080 and ensure NZEBs can meet their goals during their entire lifespan despite the increases in energy needs. The study highlights both the impact of accounting for future weather forecasts during design and the increasing relevance of net-zero energy designs in mitigating the effects of climate change while offering practical insights for architects, policymakers, and energy planners, showing why future weather patterns need to be considered in sustainable building design to ensure buildings will achieve their carbon targets throughout their life.
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spelling doaj-art-93c519a5264f443880163f9de630f1952024-12-27T14:09:23ZengMDPI AGArchitecture2673-89452024-12-01441201122410.3390/architecture4040062Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Building Energy Performance: A Future-Oriented Analysis on the UKGiulio Stefano Maria Viganò0Roberto Rugani1Marco Marengo2Marco Picco3Department of Engineering, University of Pavia, Via Adolfo Ferrata 5, 27100 Pavia, ItalyDepartment of Energy, Systems, Territory and Constructions Engineering, University of Pisa, L.go Lucio Lazzarino 1, 56122 Pisa, ItalyDepartment of Engineering, University of Pavia, Via Adolfo Ferrata 5, 27100 Pavia, ItalyAdvanced Engineering Centre, University of Brighton, Lewes Road, Brighton BN2 4GJ, UKThis research explores how climate change will affect building energy use across the UK by analysing both a conventional reference building design and a net-zero energy (NZEBs) alternative to assess how each would perform under future weather conditions. Using climate projections from databases like Prometheus and Meteonorm, along with simulation tools like EnergyPlus and Freds4Buildings, the study evaluates the energy performance, costs, and GHG emissions of a case study building under current weather conditions, with 2030, 2050, and 2080 forecasts in three different UK locations: Exeter, Manchester, and Aberdeen. Results indicate that heating demand will decrease consistently over time across all locations by as much as 21% by 2080 while cooling demand will rise sharply. NZEBs proved more resilient to these changes, using less energy and producing fewer GHG emissions than conventional buildings, with 89% reductions in emissions even with increased cooling needs. Accounting for future weather helps both understand the risks of conventional design, with a number of scenarios experiencing overheating in 2080 and ensure NZEBs can meet their goals during their entire lifespan despite the increases in energy needs. The study highlights both the impact of accounting for future weather forecasts during design and the increasing relevance of net-zero energy designs in mitigating the effects of climate change while offering practical insights for architects, policymakers, and energy planners, showing why future weather patterns need to be considered in sustainable building design to ensure buildings will achieve their carbon targets throughout their life.https://www.mdpi.com/2673-8945/4/4/62climate changebuilding energy performancenet zerofuture weatheroverheating risk
spellingShingle Giulio Stefano Maria Viganò
Roberto Rugani
Marco Marengo
Marco Picco
Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Building Energy Performance: A Future-Oriented Analysis on the UK
Architecture
climate change
building energy performance
net zero
future weather
overheating risk
title Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Building Energy Performance: A Future-Oriented Analysis on the UK
title_full Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Building Energy Performance: A Future-Oriented Analysis on the UK
title_fullStr Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Building Energy Performance: A Future-Oriented Analysis on the UK
title_full_unstemmed Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Building Energy Performance: A Future-Oriented Analysis on the UK
title_short Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Building Energy Performance: A Future-Oriented Analysis on the UK
title_sort assessing the impact of climate change on building energy performance a future oriented analysis on the uk
topic climate change
building energy performance
net zero
future weather
overheating risk
url https://www.mdpi.com/2673-8945/4/4/62
work_keys_str_mv AT giuliostefanomariavigano assessingtheimpactofclimatechangeonbuildingenergyperformanceafutureorientedanalysisontheuk
AT robertorugani assessingtheimpactofclimatechangeonbuildingenergyperformanceafutureorientedanalysisontheuk
AT marcomarengo assessingtheimpactofclimatechangeonbuildingenergyperformanceafutureorientedanalysisontheuk
AT marcopicco assessingtheimpactofclimatechangeonbuildingenergyperformanceafutureorientedanalysisontheuk