This is the way the world ends; not with a bang but a whimper: Estimating the number and ongoing rate of extinctions of Australian non-marine invertebrates
Biodiversity is in rapid decline, but the extent of loss is not well resolved for poorly known groups. We estimate the number of extinctions for Australian non-marine invertebrates since the European colonisation of the continent. Our analyses use a range of approaches, incorporate stated uncertaint...
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Cambridge University Press
2024-01-01
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| Series: | Cambridge Prisms: Extinction |
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| Online Access: | https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S2755095824000263/type/journal_article |
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| author | John C.Z. Woinarski Michael F. Braby Heloise Gibb Mark S. Harvey Sarah M. Legge Jessica R. Marsh Melinda L. Moir Tim R. New Michael G. Rix Brett P. Murphy |
| author_facet | John C.Z. Woinarski Michael F. Braby Heloise Gibb Mark S. Harvey Sarah M. Legge Jessica R. Marsh Melinda L. Moir Tim R. New Michael G. Rix Brett P. Murphy |
| author_sort | John C.Z. Woinarski |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Biodiversity is in rapid decline, but the extent of loss is not well resolved for poorly known groups. We estimate the number of extinctions for Australian non-marine invertebrates since the European colonisation of the continent. Our analyses use a range of approaches, incorporate stated uncertainties and recognise explicit caveats. We use plausible bounds for the number of species, two approaches for estimating extinction rate, and Monte Carlo simulations to select combinations of projected distributions from these variables. We conclude that 9,111 (plausible bounds of 1,465 to 56,828) Australian species have become extinct over this 236-year period. These estimates dwarf the number of formally recognised extinctions of Australian invertebrates (10 species) and of the single invertebrate species listed as extinct under Australian legislation. We predict that 39–148 species will become extinct in 2024. This is inconsistent with a recent pledge by the Australian government to prevent all extinctions. This high rate of loss is largely a consequence of pervasive taxonomic biases in community concern and conservation investment. Those characteristics also make it challenging to reduce that rate of loss, as there is uncertainty about which invertebrate species are at the most risk. We outline conservation responses to reduce the likelihood of further extinctions. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-9249388b7fc141dabd604f25cf257d3b |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2755-0958 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-01-01 |
| publisher | Cambridge University Press |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Cambridge Prisms: Extinction |
| spelling | doaj-art-9249388b7fc141dabd604f25cf257d3b2024-12-09T09:03:33ZengCambridge University PressCambridge Prisms: Extinction2755-09582024-01-01210.1017/ext.2024.26This is the way the world ends; not with a bang but a whimper: Estimating the number and ongoing rate of extinctions of Australian non-marine invertebratesJohn C.Z. Woinarski0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1712-9500Michael F. Braby1Heloise Gibb2Mark S. Harvey3Sarah M. Legge4Jessica R. Marsh5Melinda L. Moir6Tim R. New7Michael G. Rix8Brett P. Murphy9Research Institute for the Environment and Livelihoods, Charles Darwin University, Casuarina, NT, AustraliaDivision of Ecology and Evolution, Research School of Biology, The Australian National University, Acton, ACT, Australia Australian National Insect Collection, Canberra, ACT, AustraliaCentre for Future Landscapes, La Trobe University, Bundoora, VIC, AustraliaWestern Australian Museum, Welshpool DC, WA, AustraliaResearch Institute for the Environment and Livelihoods, Charles Darwin University, Casuarina, NT, Australia Fenner School of Society and the Environment, The Australian National University, Canberra, ACT, AustraliaHarry Butler Institute, Murdoch University, Murdoch, WA, Australia School of Biological Sciences, Faculty of Sciences, Engineering and Technology, The University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, AustraliaDepartment of Primary Industries and Regional Development, South Perth, WA, AustraliaDepartment of Environment and Genetics, La Trobe University, Bundoora, VIC, AustraliaQueensland Museum, Hendra, QLD, AustraliaResearch Institute for the Environment and Livelihoods, Charles Darwin University, Casuarina, NT, AustraliaBiodiversity is in rapid decline, but the extent of loss is not well resolved for poorly known groups. We estimate the number of extinctions for Australian non-marine invertebrates since the European colonisation of the continent. Our analyses use a range of approaches, incorporate stated uncertainties and recognise explicit caveats. We use plausible bounds for the number of species, two approaches for estimating extinction rate, and Monte Carlo simulations to select combinations of projected distributions from these variables. We conclude that 9,111 (plausible bounds of 1,465 to 56,828) Australian species have become extinct over this 236-year period. These estimates dwarf the number of formally recognised extinctions of Australian invertebrates (10 species) and of the single invertebrate species listed as extinct under Australian legislation. We predict that 39–148 species will become extinct in 2024. This is inconsistent with a recent pledge by the Australian government to prevent all extinctions. This high rate of loss is largely a consequence of pervasive taxonomic biases in community concern and conservation investment. Those characteristics also make it challenging to reduce that rate of loss, as there is uncertainty about which invertebrate species are at the most risk. We outline conservation responses to reduce the likelihood of further extinctions.https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S2755095824000263/type/journal_articlearthropodconservationghost extinctionsinsecttaxonomic bias |
| spellingShingle | John C.Z. Woinarski Michael F. Braby Heloise Gibb Mark S. Harvey Sarah M. Legge Jessica R. Marsh Melinda L. Moir Tim R. New Michael G. Rix Brett P. Murphy This is the way the world ends; not with a bang but a whimper: Estimating the number and ongoing rate of extinctions of Australian non-marine invertebrates Cambridge Prisms: Extinction arthropod conservation ghost extinctions insect taxonomic bias |
| title | This is the way the world ends; not with a bang but a whimper: Estimating the number and ongoing rate of extinctions of Australian non-marine invertebrates |
| title_full | This is the way the world ends; not with a bang but a whimper: Estimating the number and ongoing rate of extinctions of Australian non-marine invertebrates |
| title_fullStr | This is the way the world ends; not with a bang but a whimper: Estimating the number and ongoing rate of extinctions of Australian non-marine invertebrates |
| title_full_unstemmed | This is the way the world ends; not with a bang but a whimper: Estimating the number and ongoing rate of extinctions of Australian non-marine invertebrates |
| title_short | This is the way the world ends; not with a bang but a whimper: Estimating the number and ongoing rate of extinctions of Australian non-marine invertebrates |
| title_sort | this is the way the world ends not with a bang but a whimper estimating the number and ongoing rate of extinctions of australian non marine invertebrates |
| topic | arthropod conservation ghost extinctions insect taxonomic bias |
| url | https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S2755095824000263/type/journal_article |
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