Establishment and Validation of a Risk Prediction Model for Sepsis-Associated Liver Injury in ICU Patients: A Retrospective Cohort Study
Chang Li,1,* Jinling Ji,1,* Ting Shi,2 Shennan Pan,1 Kun Jiang,1 Yuzhang Jiang,1,* Kai Wang3,* 1Department of Medical Laboratory, The Affiliated Huaian No.1 People’s Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Huaian, Jiangsu, People’s Republic of China; 2Department of He...
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Dove Medical Press
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Infection and Drug Resistance |
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| author | Li C Ji J Shi T Pan S Jiang K Jiang Y Wang K |
| author_facet | Li C Ji J Shi T Pan S Jiang K Jiang Y Wang K |
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| description | Chang Li,1,* Jinling Ji,1,* Ting Shi,2 Shennan Pan,1 Kun Jiang,1 Yuzhang Jiang,1,* Kai Wang3,* 1Department of Medical Laboratory, The Affiliated Huaian No.1 People’s Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Huaian, Jiangsu, People’s Republic of China; 2Department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, The Affiliated Huaian No.1 People’s Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Huaian, Jiangsu, People’s Republic of China; 3Department of Immunology and Rheumatology, The Affiliated Huaian No.1 People’s Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Huaian, Jiangsu, People’s Republic of China*These authors contributed equally to this workCorrespondence: Kai Wang, Department of Immunology and Rheumatology, The Affiliated Huaian No.1 People’s Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, No. 6 Beijing West Road, Huaiyin District, Huaian, Jiangsu, People’s Republic of China, Tel +8613770351754, Email morrosun@hotmail.comPurpose: Sepsis-associated liver injury (SALI) leads to increased mortality in sepsis patients, yet no specialized tools exist for early risk assessment. This study aimed to develop and validate a risk prediction model for early identification of SALI before patients meet full diagnostic criteria.Patients and Methods: This retrospective study analyzed 415 sepsis patients admitted to ICU from January 2019 to January 2022. Patients with pre-existing liver conditions were excluded. Using LASSO regression and multivariate logistic analysis, we developed a predictive nomogram incorporating clinical variables. Model performance was evaluated through internal validation using bootstrapping method.Results: Among the cohort, 97 patients (23.4%) developed SALI. The final model identified five key predictors: total bilirubin, ALT, γ-GGT, mechanical ventilation, and kidney failure. The model demonstrated good discrimination (AUC=0.841, 95% CI: 0.795– 0.887) and calibration. Decision curve analysis showed clinical utility across a threshold probability range of 4– 87%. The model outperformed traditional scoring systems (SOFA and SAPS II) in predicting SALI risk.Conclusion: This novel nomogram effectively predicts SALI risk in sepsis patients by integrating readily available clinical parameters. While external validation is needed, the model shows promise as a practical tool for early risk stratification, potentially enabling timely interventions in high-risk patients.Keywords: SALI, variable, nomogram, risk, probability |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-8923d929d569497ca95e5b00d628a95e |
| institution | Kabale University |
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| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
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| series | Infection and Drug Resistance |
| spelling | doaj-art-8923d929d569497ca95e5b00d628a95e2025-01-02T17:00:45ZengDove Medical PressInfection and Drug Resistance1178-69732025-01-01Volume 1811398913Establishment and Validation of a Risk Prediction Model for Sepsis-Associated Liver Injury in ICU Patients: A Retrospective Cohort StudyLi CJi JShi TPan SJiang KJiang YWang KChang Li,1,* Jinling Ji,1,* Ting Shi,2 Shennan Pan,1 Kun Jiang,1 Yuzhang Jiang,1,* Kai Wang3,* 1Department of Medical Laboratory, The Affiliated Huaian No.1 People’s Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Huaian, Jiangsu, People’s Republic of China; 2Department of Hepatobiliary and Pancreatic Surgery, The Affiliated Huaian No.1 People’s Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Huaian, Jiangsu, People’s Republic of China; 3Department of Immunology and Rheumatology, The Affiliated Huaian No.1 People’s Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Huaian, Jiangsu, People’s Republic of China*These authors contributed equally to this workCorrespondence: Kai Wang, Department of Immunology and Rheumatology, The Affiliated Huaian No.1 People’s Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, No. 6 Beijing West Road, Huaiyin District, Huaian, Jiangsu, People’s Republic of China, Tel +8613770351754, Email morrosun@hotmail.comPurpose: Sepsis-associated liver injury (SALI) leads to increased mortality in sepsis patients, yet no specialized tools exist for early risk assessment. This study aimed to develop and validate a risk prediction model for early identification of SALI before patients meet full diagnostic criteria.Patients and Methods: This retrospective study analyzed 415 sepsis patients admitted to ICU from January 2019 to January 2022. Patients with pre-existing liver conditions were excluded. Using LASSO regression and multivariate logistic analysis, we developed a predictive nomogram incorporating clinical variables. Model performance was evaluated through internal validation using bootstrapping method.Results: Among the cohort, 97 patients (23.4%) developed SALI. The final model identified five key predictors: total bilirubin, ALT, γ-GGT, mechanical ventilation, and kidney failure. The model demonstrated good discrimination (AUC=0.841, 95% CI: 0.795– 0.887) and calibration. Decision curve analysis showed clinical utility across a threshold probability range of 4– 87%. The model outperformed traditional scoring systems (SOFA and SAPS II) in predicting SALI risk.Conclusion: This novel nomogram effectively predicts SALI risk in sepsis patients by integrating readily available clinical parameters. While external validation is needed, the model shows promise as a practical tool for early risk stratification, potentially enabling timely interventions in high-risk patients.Keywords: SALI, variable, nomogram, risk, probabilityhttps://www.dovepress.com/establishment-and-validation-of-a-risk-prediction-model-for-sepsis-ass-peer-reviewed-fulltext-article-IDRsalivariablenomogramriskprobability |
| spellingShingle | Li C Ji J Shi T Pan S Jiang K Jiang Y Wang K Establishment and Validation of a Risk Prediction Model for Sepsis-Associated Liver Injury in ICU Patients: A Retrospective Cohort Study Infection and Drug Resistance sali variable nomogram risk probability |
| title | Establishment and Validation of a Risk Prediction Model for Sepsis-Associated Liver Injury in ICU Patients: A Retrospective Cohort Study |
| title_full | Establishment and Validation of a Risk Prediction Model for Sepsis-Associated Liver Injury in ICU Patients: A Retrospective Cohort Study |
| title_fullStr | Establishment and Validation of a Risk Prediction Model for Sepsis-Associated Liver Injury in ICU Patients: A Retrospective Cohort Study |
| title_full_unstemmed | Establishment and Validation of a Risk Prediction Model for Sepsis-Associated Liver Injury in ICU Patients: A Retrospective Cohort Study |
| title_short | Establishment and Validation of a Risk Prediction Model for Sepsis-Associated Liver Injury in ICU Patients: A Retrospective Cohort Study |
| title_sort | establishment and validation of a risk prediction model for sepsis associated liver injury in icu patients a retrospective cohort study |
| topic | sali variable nomogram risk probability |
| url | https://www.dovepress.com/establishment-and-validation-of-a-risk-prediction-model-for-sepsis-ass-peer-reviewed-fulltext-article-IDR |
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