Burden of laryngeal cancer in China caused by smoking from 1990 to 2021 and predictions for 2035: An age-period-cohort analysis of global burden of disease study 2021
Introduction Smoking is a major risk factor for laryngeal cancer (LC). Understanding the impact of smoking on the changing disease burden of LC is crucial for LC prevention in China and provides a scientific basis for formulating targeted LC prevention and control strategies, contributing to the ach...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
European Publishing
2025-04-01
|
| Series: | Tobacco Induced Diseases |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.tobaccoinduceddiseases.org/Burden-of-laryngeal-cancer-in-China-caused-by-smoking-from-1990-to-2021-and-predictions,202875,0,2.html |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| Summary: | Introduction
Smoking is a major risk factor for laryngeal cancer (LC). Understanding
the impact of smoking on the changing disease burden of LC is crucial for LC
prevention in China and provides a scientific basis for formulating targeted LC
prevention and control strategies, contributing to the achievement of the ‘Healthy
China 2030’ goals.
Methods
Data on LC attributable to smoking in China, stratified by sex, age, and
year, were obtained from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study to
conduct a secondary data analysis. Joinpoint regression was used to analyze trends
in the burden of LC attributable to smoking in China from 1990 to 2021. Ageperiod-
cohort (APC) analysis was employed to compare and analyze trends in
the age, period, and cohort effects on the disease burden. Finally, Bayesian ageperiod-
cohort (BAPC) analysis was used to predict trends in LC mortality and
disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from 2022 to 2035.
Results
From 1990 to 2021, the overall burden of LC attributable to smoking in
China increased. The number of deaths in males rose from 9128 to 14219, and
in females from 790 to 1054. DALYs increased by 39.85% in males and 22.21%
in females. Despite the rise in absolute burden, age-standardized mortality rates
(ASMR) and age-standardized DALY rates (ASDR) declined, with reductions
exceeding 50% in females. Joinpoint regression analysis revealed a declinestabilization-
decline trend in age-standardized rates among males, while females
exhibited a continuous decline. According to the APC model, the age effect on
disease burden increased with age, while period and cohort risk ratios generally
declined. Net drift analysis showed a decline in mortality and DALY rates
attributable to smoking, more pronounced in females than males, with local drift
values <0 for both sexes. Predictions indicate that by 2035, male LC deaths will
reach 17205, and female deaths 1373; however, ASMR and ASDR will continue
to decline, with male ASMR dropping to 2.44 per 100000 and female ASMR to
0.16 per 100000.
Conclusions
Over the past three decades, the burden of LC attributable to smoking
in China has shown an increasing trend, with sex and age disparities. This burden
is expected to continue rising over the next fourteen years. Therefore, it is
imperative to strengthen smoking prevention and cessation efforts, particularly
targeting high-risk groups. Additionally, continued emphasis on education and
awareness regarding LC is necessary to facilitate early detection and intervention,
thereby effectively reducing the disease burden attributable to smoking. |
|---|---|
| ISSN: | 1617-9625 |