Grey Prediction of Mountainous Runoff of Datengxia Based on R/S Analysis
Grey prediction model has been widely used in studies on surface hydrological series,but it has not been mentioned in studies on the mountainous runoff of Datengxia.According to the annual measured data of mountainous runoff of Datengxia from 1932 to 2021,the GM (1,1) grey prediction model is establ...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | zho |
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Editorial Office of Pearl River
2022-01-01
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| Series: | Renmin Zhujiang |
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| Online Access: | http://www.renminzhujiang.cn/thesisDetails#10.3969/j.issn.1001-9235.2022.10.015 |
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| author | CUI Yanhua WANG Li WU Wenqiang |
| author_facet | CUI Yanhua WANG Li WU Wenqiang |
| author_sort | CUI Yanhua |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Grey prediction model has been widely used in studies on surface hydrological series,but it has not been mentioned in studies on the mountainous runoff of Datengxia.According to the annual measured data of mountainous runoff of Datengxia from 1932 to 2021,the GM (1,1) grey prediction model is established first.Then R/S analysis is carried out to calculate the Hurst index and the average cycle period T of the mountainous runoff series of Datengxia.After that,the grey prediction of the mountainous runoff of Datengxia is performed within a cycle T based on R/S-GM (1,1) model.The results show that the cycle period T of the mountainous runoff of Datengxia is nine years,and the model accuracy of GM (1,1) and R/S-GM (1,1) models is 84.38% and 87.46%,respectively,with a prediction accuracy of 86.28% and 92.54%,respectively.The grey prediction accuracy of R/S-GM (1,1) model is significantly higher than that of GM (1,1) model.This method has provided a new method for scientifically predicting the mountainous runoff of Datengxia. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-84134e535ffc4d1cb7b90daecf83d878 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1001-9235 |
| language | zho |
| publishDate | 2022-01-01 |
| publisher | Editorial Office of Pearl River |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Renmin Zhujiang |
| spelling | doaj-art-84134e535ffc4d1cb7b90daecf83d8782025-01-15T02:26:11ZzhoEditorial Office of Pearl RiverRenmin Zhujiang1001-92352022-01-014347643041Grey Prediction of Mountainous Runoff of Datengxia Based on R/S AnalysisCUI YanhuaWANG LiWU WenqiangGrey prediction model has been widely used in studies on surface hydrological series,but it has not been mentioned in studies on the mountainous runoff of Datengxia.According to the annual measured data of mountainous runoff of Datengxia from 1932 to 2021,the GM (1,1) grey prediction model is established first.Then R/S analysis is carried out to calculate the Hurst index and the average cycle period T of the mountainous runoff series of Datengxia.After that,the grey prediction of the mountainous runoff of Datengxia is performed within a cycle T based on R/S-GM (1,1) model.The results show that the cycle period T of the mountainous runoff of Datengxia is nine years,and the model accuracy of GM (1,1) and R/S-GM (1,1) models is 84.38% and 87.46%,respectively,with a prediction accuracy of 86.28% and 92.54%,respectively.The grey prediction accuracy of R/S-GM (1,1) model is significantly higher than that of GM (1,1) model.This method has provided a new method for scientifically predicting the mountainous runoff of Datengxia.http://www.renminzhujiang.cn/thesisDetails#10.3969/j.issn.1001-9235.2022.10.015grey predictionR/S analysisGM (1,1) modelR/S-GM (1,1) modelmountainous runoffDatengxia |
| spellingShingle | CUI Yanhua WANG Li WU Wenqiang Grey Prediction of Mountainous Runoff of Datengxia Based on R/S Analysis Renmin Zhujiang grey prediction R/S analysis GM (1,1) model R/S-GM (1,1) model mountainous runoff Datengxia |
| title | Grey Prediction of Mountainous Runoff of Datengxia Based on R/S Analysis |
| title_full | Grey Prediction of Mountainous Runoff of Datengxia Based on R/S Analysis |
| title_fullStr | Grey Prediction of Mountainous Runoff of Datengxia Based on R/S Analysis |
| title_full_unstemmed | Grey Prediction of Mountainous Runoff of Datengxia Based on R/S Analysis |
| title_short | Grey Prediction of Mountainous Runoff of Datengxia Based on R/S Analysis |
| title_sort | grey prediction of mountainous runoff of datengxia based on r s analysis |
| topic | grey prediction R/S analysis GM (1,1) model R/S-GM (1,1) model mountainous runoff Datengxia |
| url | http://www.renminzhujiang.cn/thesisDetails#10.3969/j.issn.1001-9235.2022.10.015 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT cuiyanhua greypredictionofmountainousrunoffofdatengxiabasedonrsanalysis AT wangli greypredictionofmountainousrunoffofdatengxiabasedonrsanalysis AT wuwenqiang greypredictionofmountainousrunoffofdatengxiabasedonrsanalysis |