Tuberculosis disease burden in China: a spatio-temporal clustering and prediction study
IntroductionThe primary aim of this study is to investigate and predict the prevalence and determinants of tuberculosis disease burden in China. Leveraging high-quality data sources and employing a methodologically rigorous approach, the study endeavors to enhance our understanding of tuberculosis c...
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2025-01-01
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| author | Jingzhe Guo Ce Liu Fang Liu Erkai Zhou Runxue Ma Ling Zhang Bin Luo |
| author_facet | Jingzhe Guo Ce Liu Fang Liu Erkai Zhou Runxue Ma Ling Zhang Bin Luo |
| author_sort | Jingzhe Guo |
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| description | IntroductionThe primary aim of this study is to investigate and predict the prevalence and determinants of tuberculosis disease burden in China. Leveraging high-quality data sources and employing a methodologically rigorous approach, the study endeavors to enhance our understanding of tuberculosis control efforts across different regions of China. First, through nationwide spatio-temporal cluster analysis, we summarized the status of tuberculosis burden in various regions of China and explore the differences, thereby providing a basis for formulating more targeted tuberculosis prevention and control policies in different regions; Subsequently, using a time series-based forecasting model, we conducted the first-ever national tuberculosis burden trend forecast to offer scientific guidance for timely adjustments in planning and resource allocation. This research seeks to contribute significantly to China’s existing tuberculosis prevention and control system.Materials and methodsThis research draws upon publicly available pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) incidence and mortality statistics from 31 provinces and municipalities of mainland China between 2004 and 2018. We organized and classified these data according to province, month, year, and patient age group. Overall, the sample included 14,816,329 new instances of PTB and 42,465 PTB-related fatalities. We used spatiotemporal cluster analysis to record the epidemiological characteristics and incidence patterns of PTB during this period. Additionally, a time series model was constructed to forecast and analyze the incidence and mortality trends of PTB in China.ResultsThis study reveals significant regional variations in PTB incidence and mortality in China. Tibet (124.24%) and Xinjiang (114.72%) in western China exhibited the largest percentage change in tuberculosis (TB) incidence, while Zhejiang Province (−50.45%) and Jiangsu Province (−51.33%) in eastern China showed the largest decreases. Regions with significant percentage increases in PTB mortality rates (>100%) included four western regions, six central regions, and five eastern regions. The regions with relatively large percentage decreases in the mortality rate of PTB include Tianjin (−52.25%) and Shanghai (−68.30%). These differences are attributed to two main factors: (1) economic imbalances leading to poor TB control in underdeveloped areas, and (2) differences in TB-related policies among provinces causing uneven distribution of disease risks. Consequently, China may still face challenges in achieving the World Health Organization’s 2030 tuberculosis control goals. Nationwide, the mortality rate of PTB in China increased between 2004 and 2018 (percentage change: 105.35%, AAPC: 4.1), while the incidence of PTB showed a downward trend (percentage change: -20.59%, AAPC: −2.1). Among different age groups, the 0–19 age group has the smallest disease burden. While incidence and mortality from TB were primarily found in adults 60 years of age or older, the age group of 0–19 years has the smallest burden of TB, highlighting obvious differences in age characteristics. It is predicted that the mortality rate of TB in China will continue to increase. In summary, the TB epidemic in China has been largely controlled due to the implementation of many public health programs and policies targeting specific groups and geographical areas. Finding and supporting effective health programs will make it possible to achieve the World Health Organization’s goal of controlling tuberculosis in China. |
| format | Article |
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| institution | Kabale University |
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| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
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| spelling | doaj-art-83be26cc233c4c0e81989acc58d094042025-01-07T06:45:45ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Public Health2296-25652025-01-011210.3389/fpubh.2024.14365151436515Tuberculosis disease burden in China: a spatio-temporal clustering and prediction studyJingzhe Guo0Ce Liu1Fang Liu2Erkai Zhou3Runxue Ma4Ling Zhang5Bin Luo6Institute of Occupational Health and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, ChinaInstitute of Occupational Health and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, ChinaGansu Provincial Center for Disease Prevention and Control, Lanzhou, ChinaInstitute of Occupational Health and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, ChinaInstitute of Occupational Health and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, ChinaInstitute of Occupational Health and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, ChinaInstitute of Occupational Health and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, ChinaIntroductionThe primary aim of this study is to investigate and predict the prevalence and determinants of tuberculosis disease burden in China. Leveraging high-quality data sources and employing a methodologically rigorous approach, the study endeavors to enhance our understanding of tuberculosis control efforts across different regions of China. First, through nationwide spatio-temporal cluster analysis, we summarized the status of tuberculosis burden in various regions of China and explore the differences, thereby providing a basis for formulating more targeted tuberculosis prevention and control policies in different regions; Subsequently, using a time series-based forecasting model, we conducted the first-ever national tuberculosis burden trend forecast to offer scientific guidance for timely adjustments in planning and resource allocation. This research seeks to contribute significantly to China’s existing tuberculosis prevention and control system.Materials and methodsThis research draws upon publicly available pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) incidence and mortality statistics from 31 provinces and municipalities of mainland China between 2004 and 2018. We organized and classified these data according to province, month, year, and patient age group. Overall, the sample included 14,816,329 new instances of PTB and 42,465 PTB-related fatalities. We used spatiotemporal cluster analysis to record the epidemiological characteristics and incidence patterns of PTB during this period. Additionally, a time series model was constructed to forecast and analyze the incidence and mortality trends of PTB in China.ResultsThis study reveals significant regional variations in PTB incidence and mortality in China. Tibet (124.24%) and Xinjiang (114.72%) in western China exhibited the largest percentage change in tuberculosis (TB) incidence, while Zhejiang Province (−50.45%) and Jiangsu Province (−51.33%) in eastern China showed the largest decreases. Regions with significant percentage increases in PTB mortality rates (>100%) included four western regions, six central regions, and five eastern regions. The regions with relatively large percentage decreases in the mortality rate of PTB include Tianjin (−52.25%) and Shanghai (−68.30%). These differences are attributed to two main factors: (1) economic imbalances leading to poor TB control in underdeveloped areas, and (2) differences in TB-related policies among provinces causing uneven distribution of disease risks. Consequently, China may still face challenges in achieving the World Health Organization’s 2030 tuberculosis control goals. Nationwide, the mortality rate of PTB in China increased between 2004 and 2018 (percentage change: 105.35%, AAPC: 4.1), while the incidence of PTB showed a downward trend (percentage change: -20.59%, AAPC: −2.1). Among different age groups, the 0–19 age group has the smallest disease burden. While incidence and mortality from TB were primarily found in adults 60 years of age or older, the age group of 0–19 years has the smallest burden of TB, highlighting obvious differences in age characteristics. It is predicted that the mortality rate of TB in China will continue to increase. In summary, the TB epidemic in China has been largely controlled due to the implementation of many public health programs and policies targeting specific groups and geographical areas. Finding and supporting effective health programs will make it possible to achieve the World Health Organization’s goal of controlling tuberculosis in China.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2024.1436515/fullpulmonary tuberculosisdisease burdenspatial–temporal cluster analysisprediction studyChina |
| spellingShingle | Jingzhe Guo Ce Liu Fang Liu Erkai Zhou Runxue Ma Ling Zhang Bin Luo Tuberculosis disease burden in China: a spatio-temporal clustering and prediction study Frontiers in Public Health pulmonary tuberculosis disease burden spatial–temporal cluster analysis prediction study China |
| title | Tuberculosis disease burden in China: a spatio-temporal clustering and prediction study |
| title_full | Tuberculosis disease burden in China: a spatio-temporal clustering and prediction study |
| title_fullStr | Tuberculosis disease burden in China: a spatio-temporal clustering and prediction study |
| title_full_unstemmed | Tuberculosis disease burden in China: a spatio-temporal clustering and prediction study |
| title_short | Tuberculosis disease burden in China: a spatio-temporal clustering and prediction study |
| title_sort | tuberculosis disease burden in china a spatio temporal clustering and prediction study |
| topic | pulmonary tuberculosis disease burden spatial–temporal cluster analysis prediction study China |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2024.1436515/full |
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