Modeling sorghum yield response to climate change in the semi-arid environment of Ethiopia
In Ethiopia, sorghum is a vital food security crop, predominantly cultivated in semi-arid, rain-fed agricultural landscapes. However, the increasing effects of climate change now present a serious threat to its sustainable production. This study assessed the impacts of climate change on three popula...
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Elsevier
2025-08-01
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| Series: | Journal of Agriculture and Food Research |
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| author | Mekides W. Gardi Eshetu Zewdu Tesfaye Shiferaw Sida |
| author_facet | Mekides W. Gardi Eshetu Zewdu Tesfaye Shiferaw Sida |
| author_sort | Mekides W. Gardi |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In Ethiopia, sorghum is a vital food security crop, predominantly cultivated in semi-arid, rain-fed agricultural landscapes. However, the increasing effects of climate change now present a serious threat to its sustainable production. This study assessed the impacts of climate change on three popular sorghum varieties (ESH-1, ESH-2, and Melkam) in three semi-arid areas of Ethiopia using a crop-climate modeling approach. Calibration and validation of the CERES-Sorghum model demonstrated strong agreement between simulated and observed values, confirming its reliability for application. Climate projections from three GCM models show temperature increases up to 2.1 °C by the 2050s and 4 °C by the 2080s. Rainfall changes varied by location, with Mieso projected for a 21.8 % increase and Melkassa showing minimal change but high variability. Our findings reveal highly differential and location-specific yield responses across varieties under projected climate. Although projections show Kobo yields remaining stable or increasing slightly under climate change, sensitivity analysis reveals potential yield declines of up to 44 % with a 20 % rainfall reduction. In contrast, projections for Melkassa showed consistent yield declines across all varieties, exhibiting strong sensitivity to temperature changes, where a 1.5 ∘C increase potentially reduces yields by up to 40 %. In comparison, Mieso displayed mixed responses, with the ESH-2 variety performing notably better under future scenarios. These findings suggest that current agronomic practices may be insufficient to sustain yields under climate scenarios, threatening future food security. Thus, developing and implementing climate-resilient strategies, including cultivating drought-tolerant sorghum cultivars, optimizing irrigation, and enhancing soil health, is crucial to ensure effective adaptation and regional food security. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-83113cf8eae54feea1df6346d73f7d0c |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2666-1543 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-08-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Agriculture and Food Research |
| spelling | doaj-art-83113cf8eae54feea1df6346d73f7d0c2025-08-20T03:56:04ZengElsevierJournal of Agriculture and Food Research2666-15432025-08-012210214310.1016/j.jafr.2025.102143Modeling sorghum yield response to climate change in the semi-arid environment of EthiopiaMekides W. Gardi0Eshetu Zewdu1Tesfaye Shiferaw Sida2International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), ILRI, Sholla Campus, CMC Road, Addis Ababa, c/o ILRI/CIMMYT, P.O. Box 5689, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia; Corresponding author.Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research, P.O.Box 2003, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia; Sant’Anna School of Advanced Studies, Piazza Martiri della Libertà, 33 - 56127, Pisa, ItalyInternational Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), ILRI, Sholla Campus, CMC Road, Addis Ababa, c/o ILRI/CIMMYT, P.O. Box 5689, Addis Ababa, EthiopiaIn Ethiopia, sorghum is a vital food security crop, predominantly cultivated in semi-arid, rain-fed agricultural landscapes. However, the increasing effects of climate change now present a serious threat to its sustainable production. This study assessed the impacts of climate change on three popular sorghum varieties (ESH-1, ESH-2, and Melkam) in three semi-arid areas of Ethiopia using a crop-climate modeling approach. Calibration and validation of the CERES-Sorghum model demonstrated strong agreement between simulated and observed values, confirming its reliability for application. Climate projections from three GCM models show temperature increases up to 2.1 °C by the 2050s and 4 °C by the 2080s. Rainfall changes varied by location, with Mieso projected for a 21.8 % increase and Melkassa showing minimal change but high variability. Our findings reveal highly differential and location-specific yield responses across varieties under projected climate. Although projections show Kobo yields remaining stable or increasing slightly under climate change, sensitivity analysis reveals potential yield declines of up to 44 % with a 20 % rainfall reduction. In contrast, projections for Melkassa showed consistent yield declines across all varieties, exhibiting strong sensitivity to temperature changes, where a 1.5 ∘C increase potentially reduces yields by up to 40 %. In comparison, Mieso displayed mixed responses, with the ESH-2 variety performing notably better under future scenarios. These findings suggest that current agronomic practices may be insufficient to sustain yields under climate scenarios, threatening future food security. Thus, developing and implementing climate-resilient strategies, including cultivating drought-tolerant sorghum cultivars, optimizing irrigation, and enhancing soil health, is crucial to ensure effective adaptation and regional food security.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666154325005149CERESClimate changeDSSATSensitivity analysisSorghum |
| spellingShingle | Mekides W. Gardi Eshetu Zewdu Tesfaye Shiferaw Sida Modeling sorghum yield response to climate change in the semi-arid environment of Ethiopia Journal of Agriculture and Food Research CERES Climate change DSSAT Sensitivity analysis Sorghum |
| title | Modeling sorghum yield response to climate change in the semi-arid environment of Ethiopia |
| title_full | Modeling sorghum yield response to climate change in the semi-arid environment of Ethiopia |
| title_fullStr | Modeling sorghum yield response to climate change in the semi-arid environment of Ethiopia |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modeling sorghum yield response to climate change in the semi-arid environment of Ethiopia |
| title_short | Modeling sorghum yield response to climate change in the semi-arid environment of Ethiopia |
| title_sort | modeling sorghum yield response to climate change in the semi arid environment of ethiopia |
| topic | CERES Climate change DSSAT Sensitivity analysis Sorghum |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666154325005149 |
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