Geostatistical approach in estimating the capacity volume of the mudflow reservoir

Mudflow reservoirs play a crucial role in mitigating flood risks triggered by natural events like heavy rains and snowmelt, safeguarding surrounding areas from potential inundation. However, sedimentation poses a significant challenge by reducing the capacity and effectiveness of these mudflow reser...

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Main Authors: Khasanov Khojiakbar, Babajanova Nodira, Chymyrov Akylbek, Reyimov Dayanch, Salokhitdinova Sevar
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: EDP Sciences 2024-01-01
Series:E3S Web of Conferences
Online Access:https://www.e3s-conferences.org/articles/e3sconf/pdf/2024/120/e3sconf_gi2024_07003.pdf
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Summary:Mudflow reservoirs play a crucial role in mitigating flood risks triggered by natural events like heavy rains and snowmelt, safeguarding surrounding areas from potential inundation. However, sedimentation poses a significant challenge by reducing the capacity and effectiveness of these mudflow reservoirs over time. This study focused on estimating the capacity of the Kalkama mudflow reservoir, constructed in 1987, using a geostatistical approach. Bathymetric survey data were analyzed using various interpolation methods. Kriging (Ordinary Kriging) provided the best performance with the lowest RMSE (0.28) and a high R² (0.99), indicating it is the most accurate method for this dataset. Based on this method, a spatial model of the mudflow reservoir was developed to assess its current capacity. Findings indicate a capacity loss of 2.33 million m³ (23.6%) over 36 years, alongside a 22% reduction in surface area at Full Storage Level, and the dead volume was completely filled with sediment.
ISSN:2267-1242