Debris flows in the northern Tien Shan, Central Asia: regional database, meteorological triggers, and trends
Abstract Debris flows, caused by Glacier Lake Outburst Floods (GLOF) or extreme weather, threaten lives and infrastructure in the northern Tien Shan. A geo-referenced database of 458 debris flow events of different geneses was compiled for the region. Between 1887 and 2020, there were 55 GLOF events...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2024-12-01
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| Series: | npj Natural Hazards |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-024-00050-7 |
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| author | Maria Shahgedanova Zarina Saidaliyeva Ainur Mussina Vassily Kapitsa Zhanar Raimbekova Denis Donskikh Daulet Kissebayev Murat Kasenov Maxim Petrov |
| author_facet | Maria Shahgedanova Zarina Saidaliyeva Ainur Mussina Vassily Kapitsa Zhanar Raimbekova Denis Donskikh Daulet Kissebayev Murat Kasenov Maxim Petrov |
| author_sort | Maria Shahgedanova |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Debris flows, caused by Glacier Lake Outburst Floods (GLOF) or extreme weather, threaten lives and infrastructure in the northern Tien Shan. A geo-referenced database of 458 debris flow events of different geneses was compiled for the region. Between 1887 and 2020, there were 55 GLOF events, all resulting in debris flow formation. Their frequency peaked in the 1970s and declined afterwards. These events were associated with high air temperatures but not heavy rainfall. Debris flows unrelated to GLOFs were documented in the central Ile Alatau for the 1931–2020 period. They were predominantly caused by short-duration intense rainfall (pluvial debris flows) and/or intense glaciers and snowmelt. The median rainfall intensity triggering pluvial debris flows was 22–28 mm/day, depending on the catchment. There was no long-term trend in the frequency of pluvial debris flows, but their formation is increasingly observed at higher elevations. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-77031d61feb84dd89e23a96ada0e050f |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2948-2100 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-12-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | npj Natural Hazards |
| spelling | doaj-art-77031d61feb84dd89e23a96ada0e050f2025-01-05T12:09:07ZengNature Portfolionpj Natural Hazards2948-21002024-12-011111210.1038/s44304-024-00050-7Debris flows in the northern Tien Shan, Central Asia: regional database, meteorological triggers, and trendsMaria Shahgedanova0Zarina Saidaliyeva1Ainur Mussina2Vassily Kapitsa3Zhanar Raimbekova4Denis Donskikh5Daulet Kissebayev6Murat Kasenov7Maxim Petrov8Department of Geography and Environmental Science, University of ReadingDepartment of Geography and Environmental Science, University of ReadingDepartment of Meteorology and Hydrology, Al-Farabi Kazakh National UniversityCentral Asian Regional Glaciological Centre under Auspices of UNESCODepartment of Meteorology and Hydrology, Al-Farabi Kazakh National UniversityDepartment of Physics, Imperial College London, South Kensington CampusDepartment of Meteorology and Hydrology, Al-Farabi Kazakh National UniversityKazakhstan State Agency for Mudflow Protection (KazSeleZashita)Institute of Geology and Geophysics named after H.M. AbdullaevAbstract Debris flows, caused by Glacier Lake Outburst Floods (GLOF) or extreme weather, threaten lives and infrastructure in the northern Tien Shan. A geo-referenced database of 458 debris flow events of different geneses was compiled for the region. Between 1887 and 2020, there were 55 GLOF events, all resulting in debris flow formation. Their frequency peaked in the 1970s and declined afterwards. These events were associated with high air temperatures but not heavy rainfall. Debris flows unrelated to GLOFs were documented in the central Ile Alatau for the 1931–2020 period. They were predominantly caused by short-duration intense rainfall (pluvial debris flows) and/or intense glaciers and snowmelt. The median rainfall intensity triggering pluvial debris flows was 22–28 mm/day, depending on the catchment. There was no long-term trend in the frequency of pluvial debris flows, but their formation is increasingly observed at higher elevations.https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-024-00050-7 |
| spellingShingle | Maria Shahgedanova Zarina Saidaliyeva Ainur Mussina Vassily Kapitsa Zhanar Raimbekova Denis Donskikh Daulet Kissebayev Murat Kasenov Maxim Petrov Debris flows in the northern Tien Shan, Central Asia: regional database, meteorological triggers, and trends npj Natural Hazards |
| title | Debris flows in the northern Tien Shan, Central Asia: regional database, meteorological triggers, and trends |
| title_full | Debris flows in the northern Tien Shan, Central Asia: regional database, meteorological triggers, and trends |
| title_fullStr | Debris flows in the northern Tien Shan, Central Asia: regional database, meteorological triggers, and trends |
| title_full_unstemmed | Debris flows in the northern Tien Shan, Central Asia: regional database, meteorological triggers, and trends |
| title_short | Debris flows in the northern Tien Shan, Central Asia: regional database, meteorological triggers, and trends |
| title_sort | debris flows in the northern tien shan central asia regional database meteorological triggers and trends |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s44304-024-00050-7 |
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