Runoff Change in Upper Watershed of Tangwang River Based on CMIP-6 Climate Model
To clarify the future change in air temperature, precipitation, and runoff in the upper watershed of Tangwang River, data from three scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) in the CanESM5 model of coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 (CMIP6) were adopted, and the future air temperature...
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Editorial Office of Pearl River
2024-01-01
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| Series: | Renmin Zhujiang |
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| author | ZHAO Yusu SUN Yingna HUANG Xihao |
| author_facet | ZHAO Yusu SUN Yingna HUANG Xihao |
| author_sort | ZHAO Yusu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | To clarify the future change in air temperature, precipitation, and runoff in the upper watershed of Tangwang River, data from three scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) in the CanESM5 model of coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 (CMIP6) were adopted, and the future air temperature and precipitation were processed based on Delta downscaling method. In addition, future runoff change was estimated according to the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) hydrological model. The maximum and minimum air temperatures and precipitation will increase in the future (2015–2100), but the growth rate varies in different situations, involving 0.65 °C/10a, 0.65 °C/10a,12.23 mm/10a (SSP1-2.6), 0.25 °C/10a, 0.39 °C/10a, 11.14 mm/10a (SSP2-4.5), and 0.81 °C/10a,0.86 °C/10a, 23.57 mm/10a (SSP5-8.5). Future runoff in the upper watershed of Tangwang River will increase in three scenarios, and the rate of increase is from -2.12% to 52.04%. The peak runoff in August and September in the near term (2017–2050) under SSP1-2.6 and SSP 5-8.5 scenarios and in the middle term (2050–2100) under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios is higher than that in the base period, and the maximum increase is in 36.69 m<sup>3</sup>/s. In the future, the whole upper watershed of Tangwang River may have a warm and wet phenomenon, and the risk of extreme hydrological events may rise. Simulating the future climate and analyzing the runoff change characteristics of the upper watershed of Tangwang River can provide a scientific basis and theoretical support for regional water resource allocation, water resource utilization, and drought and flood disaster prevention. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-7700f1dacf9a472dac3cf27368784828 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1001-9235 |
| language | zho |
| publishDate | 2024-01-01 |
| publisher | Editorial Office of Pearl River |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Renmin Zhujiang |
| spelling | doaj-art-7700f1dacf9a472dac3cf273687848282025-01-15T03:01:18ZzhoEditorial Office of Pearl RiverRenmin Zhujiang1001-92352024-01-0111167373510Runoff Change in Upper Watershed of Tangwang River Based on CMIP-6 Climate ModelZHAO YusuSUN YingnaHUANG XihaoTo clarify the future change in air temperature, precipitation, and runoff in the upper watershed of Tangwang River, data from three scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) in the CanESM5 model of coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 (CMIP6) were adopted, and the future air temperature and precipitation were processed based on Delta downscaling method. In addition, future runoff change was estimated according to the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) hydrological model. The maximum and minimum air temperatures and precipitation will increase in the future (2015–2100), but the growth rate varies in different situations, involving 0.65 °C/10a, 0.65 °C/10a,12.23 mm/10a (SSP1-2.6), 0.25 °C/10a, 0.39 °C/10a, 11.14 mm/10a (SSP2-4.5), and 0.81 °C/10a,0.86 °C/10a, 23.57 mm/10a (SSP5-8.5). Future runoff in the upper watershed of Tangwang River will increase in three scenarios, and the rate of increase is from -2.12% to 52.04%. The peak runoff in August and September in the near term (2017–2050) under SSP1-2.6 and SSP 5-8.5 scenarios and in the middle term (2050–2100) under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios is higher than that in the base period, and the maximum increase is in 36.69 m<sup>3</sup>/s. In the future, the whole upper watershed of Tangwang River may have a warm and wet phenomenon, and the risk of extreme hydrological events may rise. Simulating the future climate and analyzing the runoff change characteristics of the upper watershed of Tangwang River can provide a scientific basis and theoretical support for regional water resource allocation, water resource utilization, and drought and flood disaster prevention.http://www.renminzhujiang.cn/thesisDetails?columnId=67373510&Fpath=home&index=0SWATrunoff simulationCMIP6climate changeupper watershed of Tangwang River |
| spellingShingle | ZHAO Yusu SUN Yingna HUANG Xihao Runoff Change in Upper Watershed of Tangwang River Based on CMIP-6 Climate Model Renmin Zhujiang SWAT runoff simulation CMIP6 climate change upper watershed of Tangwang River |
| title | Runoff Change in Upper Watershed of Tangwang River Based on CMIP-6 Climate Model |
| title_full | Runoff Change in Upper Watershed of Tangwang River Based on CMIP-6 Climate Model |
| title_fullStr | Runoff Change in Upper Watershed of Tangwang River Based on CMIP-6 Climate Model |
| title_full_unstemmed | Runoff Change in Upper Watershed of Tangwang River Based on CMIP-6 Climate Model |
| title_short | Runoff Change in Upper Watershed of Tangwang River Based on CMIP-6 Climate Model |
| title_sort | runoff change in upper watershed of tangwang river based on cmip 6 climate model |
| topic | SWAT runoff simulation CMIP6 climate change upper watershed of Tangwang River |
| url | http://www.renminzhujiang.cn/thesisDetails?columnId=67373510&Fpath=home&index=0 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT zhaoyusu runoffchangeinupperwatershedoftangwangriverbasedoncmip6climatemodel AT sunyingna runoffchangeinupperwatershedoftangwangriverbasedoncmip6climatemodel AT huangxihao runoffchangeinupperwatershedoftangwangriverbasedoncmip6climatemodel |