Power sector benefits of flexible heat pumps in 2030 scenarios

Abstract Heat pumps play a major role in decreasing fossil fuel use in heating. They increase electricity demand, but could also foster the system integration of variable renewable energy sources. We analyze three scenarios for expanding decentralized heat pumps in Germany by 2030, focusing on the r...

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Main Authors: Alexander Roth, Carlos Gaete-Morales, Dana Kirchem, Wolf-Peter Schill
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Nature Portfolio 2024-11-01
Series:Communications Earth & Environment
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01861-2
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author Alexander Roth
Carlos Gaete-Morales
Dana Kirchem
Wolf-Peter Schill
author_facet Alexander Roth
Carlos Gaete-Morales
Dana Kirchem
Wolf-Peter Schill
author_sort Alexander Roth
collection DOAJ
description Abstract Heat pumps play a major role in decreasing fossil fuel use in heating. They increase electricity demand, but could also foster the system integration of variable renewable energy sources. We analyze three scenarios for expanding decentralized heat pumps in Germany by 2030, focusing on the role of buffer heat storage. Using an open-source power sector model, we assess costs, capacity investments, and emissions effects. We find that investments in solar photovoltaics can cost-effectively accompany the roll-out of heat pumps in case wind power expansion potentials are limited. Results further show that short-duration heat storage substantially reduces the need for firm capacity and battery storage. Larger heat storage sizes do not substantially change the results. Increasing the number of heat pumps from 1.7 to 10 million units could annually save more than half of Germany’s private and commercial natural gas consumption and around half of households’ building-related CO2 emissions.
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institution Kabale University
issn 2662-4435
language English
publishDate 2024-11-01
publisher Nature Portfolio
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series Communications Earth & Environment
spelling doaj-art-75ca62dd06c542e595aefa07264b1e342024-11-24T12:44:13ZengNature PortfolioCommunications Earth & Environment2662-44352024-11-015111210.1038/s43247-024-01861-2Power sector benefits of flexible heat pumps in 2030 scenariosAlexander Roth0Carlos Gaete-Morales1Dana Kirchem2Wolf-Peter Schill3German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin)German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin)German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin)German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin)Abstract Heat pumps play a major role in decreasing fossil fuel use in heating. They increase electricity demand, but could also foster the system integration of variable renewable energy sources. We analyze three scenarios for expanding decentralized heat pumps in Germany by 2030, focusing on the role of buffer heat storage. Using an open-source power sector model, we assess costs, capacity investments, and emissions effects. We find that investments in solar photovoltaics can cost-effectively accompany the roll-out of heat pumps in case wind power expansion potentials are limited. Results further show that short-duration heat storage substantially reduces the need for firm capacity and battery storage. Larger heat storage sizes do not substantially change the results. Increasing the number of heat pumps from 1.7 to 10 million units could annually save more than half of Germany’s private and commercial natural gas consumption and around half of households’ building-related CO2 emissions.https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01861-2
spellingShingle Alexander Roth
Carlos Gaete-Morales
Dana Kirchem
Wolf-Peter Schill
Power sector benefits of flexible heat pumps in 2030 scenarios
Communications Earth & Environment
title Power sector benefits of flexible heat pumps in 2030 scenarios
title_full Power sector benefits of flexible heat pumps in 2030 scenarios
title_fullStr Power sector benefits of flexible heat pumps in 2030 scenarios
title_full_unstemmed Power sector benefits of flexible heat pumps in 2030 scenarios
title_short Power sector benefits of flexible heat pumps in 2030 scenarios
title_sort power sector benefits of flexible heat pumps in 2030 scenarios
url https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01861-2
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