Modeling forest and rangeland ecosystem responses to drought across Hyrcanian bioclimatic zones of Iran using GLM and LAI analysis
Abstract Drought substantially affects ecosystem structure and function, shaping vegetation dynamics and influencing long-term environmental sustainability. This study examines drought effects on forest and rangeland ecosystems across three bioclimatic zones in the Hyrcanian region of Iran. MODIS-de...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Nature Portfolio
2025-07-01
|
| Series: | Scientific Reports |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-09629-0 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1849332900846108672 |
|---|---|
| author | Azade Bazrmanesh Saeid Soltani Mostafa Tarkesh Esfahani Reza Jafari |
| author_facet | Azade Bazrmanesh Saeid Soltani Mostafa Tarkesh Esfahani Reza Jafari |
| author_sort | Azade Bazrmanesh |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Drought substantially affects ecosystem structure and function, shaping vegetation dynamics and influencing long-term environmental sustainability. This study examines drought effects on forest and rangeland ecosystems across three bioclimatic zones in the Hyrcanian region of Iran. MODIS-derived Leaf Area Index (LAI) data (2001–2022) and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) were used with a generalized linear model (GLM) to assess vegetation responses. The findings indicate that rangeland ecosystems, especially in Zones II and III, are susceptible to drought, with SPI accounting for over 80% of the observed LAI variability in these regions. Forests better withstand dry conditions, with SPI explaining about half of the changes in LAI Zone III, with high elevation and snow-dominated precipitation, is drought-sensitive. Zone I near the Caspian Sea has higher humidity and more stable conditions. Zone II, with a semi-humid cold climate, exhibits the largest LAI fluctuations due to its strong dependence on moisture. Elevation, vegetation type, and climate critically influence drought responses. Targeted land management, including water optimization and conservation, is essential. Future research should integrate additional factors such as soil moisture, land cover change, and anthropogenic pressures such as deforestation, overgrazing, and environmental degradation alongside predictive modeling to enhance ecological sustainability. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-72e8aa0a5d3e40888f41cbf3a10db1f8 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-07-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj-art-72e8aa0a5d3e40888f41cbf3a10db1f82025-08-20T03:46:04ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222025-07-0115111710.1038/s41598-025-09629-0Modeling forest and rangeland ecosystem responses to drought across Hyrcanian bioclimatic zones of Iran using GLM and LAI analysisAzade Bazrmanesh0Saeid Soltani1Mostafa Tarkesh Esfahani2Reza Jafari3Department of Natural Resources, Isfahan University of TechnologyDepartment of Natural Resources, Isfahan University of TechnologyDepartment of Natural Resources, Isfahan University of TechnologyDepartment of Natural Resources, Isfahan University of TechnologyAbstract Drought substantially affects ecosystem structure and function, shaping vegetation dynamics and influencing long-term environmental sustainability. This study examines drought effects on forest and rangeland ecosystems across three bioclimatic zones in the Hyrcanian region of Iran. MODIS-derived Leaf Area Index (LAI) data (2001–2022) and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) were used with a generalized linear model (GLM) to assess vegetation responses. The findings indicate that rangeland ecosystems, especially in Zones II and III, are susceptible to drought, with SPI accounting for over 80% of the observed LAI variability in these regions. Forests better withstand dry conditions, with SPI explaining about half of the changes in LAI Zone III, with high elevation and snow-dominated precipitation, is drought-sensitive. Zone I near the Caspian Sea has higher humidity and more stable conditions. Zone II, with a semi-humid cold climate, exhibits the largest LAI fluctuations due to its strong dependence on moisture. Elevation, vegetation type, and climate critically influence drought responses. Targeted land management, including water optimization and conservation, is essential. Future research should integrate additional factors such as soil moisture, land cover change, and anthropogenic pressures such as deforestation, overgrazing, and environmental degradation alongside predictive modeling to enhance ecological sustainability.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-09629-0Leaf area index (LAI)Standardized precipitation index (SPI)Remote sensingHyrcanian bioclimatic zonesGeneralized linear model (GLM) |
| spellingShingle | Azade Bazrmanesh Saeid Soltani Mostafa Tarkesh Esfahani Reza Jafari Modeling forest and rangeland ecosystem responses to drought across Hyrcanian bioclimatic zones of Iran using GLM and LAI analysis Scientific Reports Leaf area index (LAI) Standardized precipitation index (SPI) Remote sensing Hyrcanian bioclimatic zones Generalized linear model (GLM) |
| title | Modeling forest and rangeland ecosystem responses to drought across Hyrcanian bioclimatic zones of Iran using GLM and LAI analysis |
| title_full | Modeling forest and rangeland ecosystem responses to drought across Hyrcanian bioclimatic zones of Iran using GLM and LAI analysis |
| title_fullStr | Modeling forest and rangeland ecosystem responses to drought across Hyrcanian bioclimatic zones of Iran using GLM and LAI analysis |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modeling forest and rangeland ecosystem responses to drought across Hyrcanian bioclimatic zones of Iran using GLM and LAI analysis |
| title_short | Modeling forest and rangeland ecosystem responses to drought across Hyrcanian bioclimatic zones of Iran using GLM and LAI analysis |
| title_sort | modeling forest and rangeland ecosystem responses to drought across hyrcanian bioclimatic zones of iran using glm and lai analysis |
| topic | Leaf area index (LAI) Standardized precipitation index (SPI) Remote sensing Hyrcanian bioclimatic zones Generalized linear model (GLM) |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-09629-0 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT azadebazrmanesh modelingforestandrangelandecosystemresponsestodroughtacrosshyrcanianbioclimaticzonesofiranusingglmandlaianalysis AT saeidsoltani modelingforestandrangelandecosystemresponsestodroughtacrosshyrcanianbioclimaticzonesofiranusingglmandlaianalysis AT mostafatarkeshesfahani modelingforestandrangelandecosystemresponsestodroughtacrosshyrcanianbioclimaticzonesofiranusingglmandlaianalysis AT rezajafari modelingforestandrangelandecosystemresponsestodroughtacrosshyrcanianbioclimaticzonesofiranusingglmandlaianalysis |