Global Predictability of Marine Heatwave Induced Rapid Intensification of Tropical Cyclones
Abstract Prediction of the rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclones (TCs) is crucial for improving disaster preparedness against storm hazards. These events can cause extensive damage to coastal areas if occurring close to landfall. Available models struggle to provide accurate RI estimates d...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2024-12-01
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| Series: | Earth's Future |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004935 |
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| author | Soheil Radfar Ehsan Foroumandi Hamed Moftakhari Hamid Moradkhani Gregory R. Foltz Alex Sen Gupta |
| author_facet | Soheil Radfar Ehsan Foroumandi Hamed Moftakhari Hamid Moradkhani Gregory R. Foltz Alex Sen Gupta |
| author_sort | Soheil Radfar |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Prediction of the rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclones (TCs) is crucial for improving disaster preparedness against storm hazards. These events can cause extensive damage to coastal areas if occurring close to landfall. Available models struggle to provide accurate RI estimates due to the complexity of underlying physical mechanisms. This study provides new insights into the prediction of a subset of rapidly intensifying TCs influenced by prolonged ocean warming events known as marine heatwaves (MHWs). MHWs could provide sufficient energy to supercharge TCs. Preconditioning by MHW led to RI of recent destructive TCs, Otis (2023), Doksuri (2023), and Ian (2022), with economic losses exceeding $150 billion. Here, we analyze the TC best track and sea surface temperature data from 1981 to 2023 to identify hotspot regions for compound events, where MHWs and RI of tropical cyclones occur concurrently or in succession. Building upon this, we propose an ensemble machine learning model for RI forecasting based on storm and MHW characteristics. This approach is particularly valuable as RI forecast errors are typically largest in favorable environments, such as those created by MHWs. Our study offers insight into predicting MHW TCs, which have been shown to be stronger TCs with potentially higher destructive power. Here, we show that using MHW predictors instead of the conventional method of using sea surface temperature reduces the false alarm rate by 30%. Overall, our findings contribute to coastal hazard risk awareness amidst unprecedented climate warming causing more frequent MHWs. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-727d3740a6694d65bca6b447c6821c26 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2328-4277 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-12-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Earth's Future |
| spelling | doaj-art-727d3740a6694d65bca6b447c6821c262024-12-24T14:06:58ZengWileyEarth's Future2328-42772024-12-011212n/an/a10.1029/2024EF004935Global Predictability of Marine Heatwave Induced Rapid Intensification of Tropical CyclonesSoheil Radfar0Ehsan Foroumandi1Hamed Moftakhari2Hamid Moradkhani3Gregory R. Foltz4Alex Sen Gupta5Center for Complex Hydrosystems Research The University of Alabama Tuscaloosa AL USACenter for Complex Hydrosystems Research The University of Alabama Tuscaloosa AL USACenter for Complex Hydrosystems Research The University of Alabama Tuscaloosa AL USACenter for Complex Hydrosystems Research The University of Alabama Tuscaloosa AL USAAtlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Miami FL USAClimate Change Research Centre and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes University of New South Wales Sydney NSW AustraliaAbstract Prediction of the rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclones (TCs) is crucial for improving disaster preparedness against storm hazards. These events can cause extensive damage to coastal areas if occurring close to landfall. Available models struggle to provide accurate RI estimates due to the complexity of underlying physical mechanisms. This study provides new insights into the prediction of a subset of rapidly intensifying TCs influenced by prolonged ocean warming events known as marine heatwaves (MHWs). MHWs could provide sufficient energy to supercharge TCs. Preconditioning by MHW led to RI of recent destructive TCs, Otis (2023), Doksuri (2023), and Ian (2022), with economic losses exceeding $150 billion. Here, we analyze the TC best track and sea surface temperature data from 1981 to 2023 to identify hotspot regions for compound events, where MHWs and RI of tropical cyclones occur concurrently or in succession. Building upon this, we propose an ensemble machine learning model for RI forecasting based on storm and MHW characteristics. This approach is particularly valuable as RI forecast errors are typically largest in favorable environments, such as those created by MHWs. Our study offers insight into predicting MHW TCs, which have been shown to be stronger TCs with potentially higher destructive power. Here, we show that using MHW predictors instead of the conventional method of using sea surface temperature reduces the false alarm rate by 30%. Overall, our findings contribute to coastal hazard risk awareness amidst unprecedented climate warming causing more frequent MHWs.https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004935tropical cyclonesrapid intensificationmarine heatwavesmachine learningpredictionglobal warming |
| spellingShingle | Soheil Radfar Ehsan Foroumandi Hamed Moftakhari Hamid Moradkhani Gregory R. Foltz Alex Sen Gupta Global Predictability of Marine Heatwave Induced Rapid Intensification of Tropical Cyclones Earth's Future tropical cyclones rapid intensification marine heatwaves machine learning prediction global warming |
| title | Global Predictability of Marine Heatwave Induced Rapid Intensification of Tropical Cyclones |
| title_full | Global Predictability of Marine Heatwave Induced Rapid Intensification of Tropical Cyclones |
| title_fullStr | Global Predictability of Marine Heatwave Induced Rapid Intensification of Tropical Cyclones |
| title_full_unstemmed | Global Predictability of Marine Heatwave Induced Rapid Intensification of Tropical Cyclones |
| title_short | Global Predictability of Marine Heatwave Induced Rapid Intensification of Tropical Cyclones |
| title_sort | global predictability of marine heatwave induced rapid intensification of tropical cyclones |
| topic | tropical cyclones rapid intensification marine heatwaves machine learning prediction global warming |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004935 |
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