Study on Hydrological Drought Forecasting Based on SWAT Model and ESP Thought
Based on measured data such as 40-year long series of hydrological and meteorological data from 1970 to 2009,and the distributed hydrological model SWAT with strong mechanism and integrated forecasting ESP thought,this paper builds a set of drought forecasting system,optimizes the parameters of SWAT...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | zho |
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Editorial Office of Pearl River
2020-01-01
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| Series: | Renmin Zhujiang |
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| Online Access: | http://www.renminzhujiang.cn/thesisDetails#10.3969/j.issn.1001-9235.2020.08.008 |
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| author | SUN Long LI Meng |
| author_facet | SUN Long LI Meng |
| author_sort | SUN Long |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Based on measured data such as 40-year long series of hydrological and meteorological data from 1970 to 2009,and the distributed hydrological model SWAT with strong mechanism and integrated forecasting ESP thought,this paper builds a set of drought forecasting system,optimizes the parameters of SWAT model by data from 1970 to 2009,predicts the future long-term (April to October,2010) hydrological drought in the middle and lower reaches of Ganjiang,and calculates and predicts the probability of occurrence of hydrological drought from early April 2010 to late October 2010 in a ten-day basis with ten-day runoff depth anomaly percentage as the early warning indicator for judging the hydrological drought in various districts and counties.The results show that,hydrologic drought is more likely in the middle of May,middle of June to late July,middle of August,early September and middle of October to late October, among which a wide range of hydrological drought is likely to happen in early to middle of July and middle to late October.The predicting results can provide scientific guidance for drought resistance and disaster reduction. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-6f7c1626cc8249acb09498a1b0f4e6e5 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1001-9235 |
| language | zho |
| publishDate | 2020-01-01 |
| publisher | Editorial Office of Pearl River |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Renmin Zhujiang |
| spelling | doaj-art-6f7c1626cc8249acb09498a1b0f4e6e52025-01-15T02:31:02ZzhoEditorial Office of Pearl RiverRenmin Zhujiang1001-92352020-01-014147651466Study on Hydrological Drought Forecasting Based on SWAT Model and ESP ThoughtSUN LongLI MengBased on measured data such as 40-year long series of hydrological and meteorological data from 1970 to 2009,and the distributed hydrological model SWAT with strong mechanism and integrated forecasting ESP thought,this paper builds a set of drought forecasting system,optimizes the parameters of SWAT model by data from 1970 to 2009,predicts the future long-term (April to October,2010) hydrological drought in the middle and lower reaches of Ganjiang,and calculates and predicts the probability of occurrence of hydrological drought from early April 2010 to late October 2010 in a ten-day basis with ten-day runoff depth anomaly percentage as the early warning indicator for judging the hydrological drought in various districts and counties.The results show that,hydrologic drought is more likely in the middle of May,middle of June to late July,middle of August,early September and middle of October to late October, among which a wide range of hydrological drought is likely to happen in early to middle of July and middle to late October.The predicting results can provide scientific guidance for drought resistance and disaster reduction.http://www.renminzhujiang.cn/thesisDetails#10.3969/j.issn.1001-9235.2020.08.008hydrological droughtforecastingSWATESPten-day runoff depth |
| spellingShingle | SUN Long LI Meng Study on Hydrological Drought Forecasting Based on SWAT Model and ESP Thought Renmin Zhujiang hydrological drought forecasting SWAT ESP ten-day runoff depth |
| title | Study on Hydrological Drought Forecasting Based on SWAT Model and ESP Thought |
| title_full | Study on Hydrological Drought Forecasting Based on SWAT Model and ESP Thought |
| title_fullStr | Study on Hydrological Drought Forecasting Based on SWAT Model and ESP Thought |
| title_full_unstemmed | Study on Hydrological Drought Forecasting Based on SWAT Model and ESP Thought |
| title_short | Study on Hydrological Drought Forecasting Based on SWAT Model and ESP Thought |
| title_sort | study on hydrological drought forecasting based on swat model and esp thought |
| topic | hydrological drought forecasting SWAT ESP ten-day runoff depth |
| url | http://www.renminzhujiang.cn/thesisDetails#10.3969/j.issn.1001-9235.2020.08.008 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT sunlong studyonhydrologicaldroughtforecastingbasedonswatmodelandespthought AT limeng studyonhydrologicaldroughtforecastingbasedonswatmodelandespthought |