Capturing the month of the year effect in the Indian stock market using GARCH models

Purpose – In the research of stock market efficiency, it is argued that the stock market moves randomly and absorbs all the available information. As a result, it is quite impossible to make predictions about the possible future movement by the investors. But literatures have detected certain calend...

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Main Authors: Pramath Nath Acharya, Srinivasan Kaliyaperumal, Rudra Prasanna Mahapatra
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Emerald Publishing 2024-03-01
Series:Vilakshan (XIMB Journal of Management)
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Online Access:https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/XJM-08-2021-0204/full/pdf
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author Pramath Nath Acharya
Srinivasan Kaliyaperumal
Rudra Prasanna Mahapatra
author_facet Pramath Nath Acharya
Srinivasan Kaliyaperumal
Rudra Prasanna Mahapatra
author_sort Pramath Nath Acharya
collection DOAJ
description Purpose – In the research of stock market efficiency, it is argued that the stock market moves randomly and absorbs all the available information. As a result, it is quite impossible to make predictions about the possible future movement by the investors. But literatures have detected certain calendar anomalies where a day(s) in a week or month(s) in a year or a particular event in a year becomes conducive for investors to earn more than the normal. Hence, the purpose of this study is to find out the month of the year effect in the Indian stock market. Design/methodology/approach – In this study, daily time series data of Sensex and Nifty from 1996 to 2021 is used. The study uses month dummies to capture the effect. Different variants of generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models, both symmetric and asymmetric, are used in the study to model the conditional volatility in the presence month effect. Findings – This study found the September effect in the return series of both the stock market. Apart from that, asymmetric GARCH models are found to be the best fit model to estimate conditional volatility. Originality/value – This study is an endeavour to study month of the year effect in the Indian context. This research will provide valuable insight for studying the different calendar anomalies.
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institution Kabale University
issn 0973-1954
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language English
publishDate 2024-03-01
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series Vilakshan (XIMB Journal of Management)
spelling doaj-art-6f1196b4bf0345a0807bb5ec8889d5952024-12-20T13:02:32ZengEmerald PublishingVilakshan (XIMB Journal of Management)0973-19542633-94392024-03-0121121410.1108/XJM-08-2021-0204Capturing the month of the year effect in the Indian stock market using GARCH modelsPramath Nath Acharya0Srinivasan Kaliyaperumal1Rudra Prasanna Mahapatra2Department of Management Studies, National Institute of Science and Technology, Berhampur, IndiaFaculty of Business Studies, Higher Colleges of Technology, Muscat, OmanDepartment of Commerce, Berhampur University, Berhampur, IndiaPurpose – In the research of stock market efficiency, it is argued that the stock market moves randomly and absorbs all the available information. As a result, it is quite impossible to make predictions about the possible future movement by the investors. But literatures have detected certain calendar anomalies where a day(s) in a week or month(s) in a year or a particular event in a year becomes conducive for investors to earn more than the normal. Hence, the purpose of this study is to find out the month of the year effect in the Indian stock market. Design/methodology/approach – In this study, daily time series data of Sensex and Nifty from 1996 to 2021 is used. The study uses month dummies to capture the effect. Different variants of generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models, both symmetric and asymmetric, are used in the study to model the conditional volatility in the presence month effect. Findings – This study found the September effect in the return series of both the stock market. Apart from that, asymmetric GARCH models are found to be the best fit model to estimate conditional volatility. Originality/value – This study is an endeavour to study month of the year effect in the Indian context. This research will provide valuable insight for studying the different calendar anomalies.https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/XJM-08-2021-0204/full/pdfStock marketReturnVolatilityMonth of the year effectGARCHCalendar anomalies
spellingShingle Pramath Nath Acharya
Srinivasan Kaliyaperumal
Rudra Prasanna Mahapatra
Capturing the month of the year effect in the Indian stock market using GARCH models
Vilakshan (XIMB Journal of Management)
Stock market
Return
Volatility
Month of the year effect
GARCH
Calendar anomalies
title Capturing the month of the year effect in the Indian stock market using GARCH models
title_full Capturing the month of the year effect in the Indian stock market using GARCH models
title_fullStr Capturing the month of the year effect in the Indian stock market using GARCH models
title_full_unstemmed Capturing the month of the year effect in the Indian stock market using GARCH models
title_short Capturing the month of the year effect in the Indian stock market using GARCH models
title_sort capturing the month of the year effect in the indian stock market using garch models
topic Stock market
Return
Volatility
Month of the year effect
GARCH
Calendar anomalies
url https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/XJM-08-2021-0204/full/pdf
work_keys_str_mv AT pramathnathacharya capturingthemonthoftheyeareffectintheindianstockmarketusinggarchmodels
AT srinivasankaliyaperumal capturingthemonthoftheyeareffectintheindianstockmarketusinggarchmodels
AT rudraprasannamahapatra capturingthemonthoftheyeareffectintheindianstockmarketusinggarchmodels