Dynamic Bayesian Network Model for Overhead Power Lines Affected by Hurricanes

Dynamic Bayesian Network Model for Overhead Power Lines Affected by Hurricanes

This paper investigates the dynamics of Hurricane-Induced Failure (HIF) by developing a probabilistic framework using a Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) model. The model captures the complex interplay of factors influencing Hurricane Wind Speed Intensity (HWSI) and its impact on asset failures. In the...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Kehkashan Fatima, Hussain Shareef
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2025-03-01
Series:Forecasting
Subjects:
dynamic Bayesian network
hurricane-induced failure
overhead line failure probability
resilience
Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/2571-9394/7/1/11
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Summary:This paper investigates the dynamics of Hurricane-Induced Failure (HIF) by developing a probabilistic framework using a Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) model. The model captures the complex interplay of factors influencing Hurricane Wind Speed Intensity (HWSI) and its impact on asset failures. In the proposed DBN model, the pole failure mechanism is represented using Bayesian probabilistic principles, encompassing bending elasticity endurance and the foundational strength of the system poles. To characterize the stochastic properties of HIF, Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) is employed in conjunction with fragility curves (FC) and the scenario reduction (SCENRED) algorithm. The proposed DBN model evaluates the probability of asset failure and compares the results using stochastic Monte Carlo simulation based on the fragility curve scenario reduction algorithm (FC-MCS-SCENRED) model. The results are validated on a standard IEEE 15 bus and IEEE 33 bus radial distribution system as a case study. The DBN results show that they are consistent with the data obtained using the FC-MCS-SCENRED model. The results also reveal that the HWSI plays a critical role in determining HIF rates and the likelihood of asset failures. These findings hold significant implications for the inspection and maintenance scheduling of distribution overhead power lines susceptible to hurricane-induced impacts.
ISSN:2571-9394

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