Evaluating the Performance of SWAN model in forecasting storm surges over the Persian Gulf and Oman Sea in a case study (June 7-10, 2023)
Today, a large part of the world's economy depends on the seas, and many people work on the waters every day; therefore, accurately predicting the height of waves and their characteristics is more important than ever. In this study, the ability of the SWAN model to predict storm surges in the P...
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I.R. of Iran Meteorological Organization
2024-03-01
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| Online Access: | https://nivar.irimo.ir/article_197595_df0574a8fea643e35519e0d2e9694599.pdf |
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| author | Zahra Ghassabi Sara Karami Behzad Layeghi |
| author_facet | Zahra Ghassabi Sara Karami Behzad Layeghi |
| author_sort | Zahra Ghassabi |
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| description | Today, a large part of the world's economy depends on the seas, and many people work on the waters every day; therefore, accurately predicting the height of waves and their characteristics is more important than ever. In this study, the ability of the SWAN model to predict storm surges in the Persian Gulf and the Oman Sea on June 7-9, 2023, when the National Meteorological Organization had issued several orange and red warnings, was investigated. For this purpose, the SWAN model was run once with the wind data obtained from the ERA5 reanalysis data and again with the output of the WRF model. For bathymetric data GEBCO data with a resolution of 15 arc seconds were used. The results showed that at sometimes, the pattern of the significant wave height (Hs) in the output of the SWAN model using ERA5 data and the forecast of the WRF model are somewhat similar, but in the forecast, the Hs in the Strait of Hormuz and its surroundings has been overestimated in many cases. The comparison of the 10-meter wind of ERA5 data and the WRF forecast showed that the WRF model predicted the wind speed on the Strait of Hormuz slightly higher at sometimes, which caused a significant difference in the Hs. Therefore, it can be concluded that in areas with more complex topography, such as the Strait of Hormuz, a small error in wind data leads to a large error in wave prediction. Collaborative analysis showed that the WRF model has shown the pattern of sea level pressure and geopotential height at 500hPa somewhat similar to ERA5, but it has predicted a decrease in pressure and lower height over the Persian Gulf and Oman Sea, which can lead to errors in wind speed prediction. To be Examining the time series of the wave height index and some other quantities from the SWAN model output using ERA5 wind data and the WRF model showed that although at sometimes, the change process of the outputs is similar, the error is still significant and for point use of the forecast, the marine model still needs a lot of improvements. |
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| institution | Kabale University |
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| language | fas |
| publishDate | 2024-03-01 |
| publisher | I.R. of Iran Meteorological Organization |
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| spelling | doaj-art-6d3a76f662c14597b9bbb6cc3ecec4502025-01-05T10:55:06ZfasI.R. of Iran Meteorological OrganizationNīvār1735-05652645-33472024-03-0148124-12512814510.30467/nivar.2024.451624.1287197595Evaluating the Performance of SWAN model in forecasting storm surges over the Persian Gulf and Oman Sea in a case study (June 7-10, 2023)Zahra Ghassabi0Sara Karami1Behzad Layeghi2ASMERC, َ Atmospheric Hazard Forecasting groupRIMASPhD in Marine PhysicsToday, a large part of the world's economy depends on the seas, and many people work on the waters every day; therefore, accurately predicting the height of waves and their characteristics is more important than ever. In this study, the ability of the SWAN model to predict storm surges in the Persian Gulf and the Oman Sea on June 7-9, 2023, when the National Meteorological Organization had issued several orange and red warnings, was investigated. For this purpose, the SWAN model was run once with the wind data obtained from the ERA5 reanalysis data and again with the output of the WRF model. For bathymetric data GEBCO data with a resolution of 15 arc seconds were used. The results showed that at sometimes, the pattern of the significant wave height (Hs) in the output of the SWAN model using ERA5 data and the forecast of the WRF model are somewhat similar, but in the forecast, the Hs in the Strait of Hormuz and its surroundings has been overestimated in many cases. The comparison of the 10-meter wind of ERA5 data and the WRF forecast showed that the WRF model predicted the wind speed on the Strait of Hormuz slightly higher at sometimes, which caused a significant difference in the Hs. Therefore, it can be concluded that in areas with more complex topography, such as the Strait of Hormuz, a small error in wind data leads to a large error in wave prediction. Collaborative analysis showed that the WRF model has shown the pattern of sea level pressure and geopotential height at 500hPa somewhat similar to ERA5, but it has predicted a decrease in pressure and lower height over the Persian Gulf and Oman Sea, which can lead to errors in wind speed prediction. To be Examining the time series of the wave height index and some other quantities from the SWAN model output using ERA5 wind data and the WRF model showed that although at sometimes, the change process of the outputs is similar, the error is still significant and for point use of the forecast, the marine model still needs a lot of improvements.https://nivar.irimo.ir/article_197595_df0574a8fea643e35519e0d2e9694599.pdfswan modelwind driven wavespersian gulfoman seaforecast |
| spellingShingle | Zahra Ghassabi Sara Karami Behzad Layeghi Evaluating the Performance of SWAN model in forecasting storm surges over the Persian Gulf and Oman Sea in a case study (June 7-10, 2023) Nīvār swan model wind driven waves persian gulf oman sea forecast |
| title | Evaluating the Performance of SWAN model in forecasting storm surges over the Persian Gulf and Oman Sea in a case study (June 7-10, 2023) |
| title_full | Evaluating the Performance of SWAN model in forecasting storm surges over the Persian Gulf and Oman Sea in a case study (June 7-10, 2023) |
| title_fullStr | Evaluating the Performance of SWAN model in forecasting storm surges over the Persian Gulf and Oman Sea in a case study (June 7-10, 2023) |
| title_full_unstemmed | Evaluating the Performance of SWAN model in forecasting storm surges over the Persian Gulf and Oman Sea in a case study (June 7-10, 2023) |
| title_short | Evaluating the Performance of SWAN model in forecasting storm surges over the Persian Gulf and Oman Sea in a case study (June 7-10, 2023) |
| title_sort | evaluating the performance of swan model in forecasting storm surges over the persian gulf and oman sea in a case study june 7 10 2023 |
| topic | swan model wind driven waves persian gulf oman sea forecast |
| url | https://nivar.irimo.ir/article_197595_df0574a8fea643e35519e0d2e9694599.pdf |
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