Effects of future climate on suitability of major crops in Eastern Kansas River Basin
Climate change significantly threatens food security and the agricultural economy, particularly under rainfed conditions. This study uses the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) crop simulation model to evaluate the future suitability of growing maize and soybean in the Easte...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Polish Academy of Sciences
2024-11-01
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| Series: | Journal of Water and Land Development |
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| Online Access: | https://journals.pan.pl/Content/133585/2024-04-JWLD-17.pdf |
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| author | Rintu Sen Vaishali Sharda Zachary T. Zambreski Ikenna Onyekwelu Katherine S. Nelson |
| author_facet | Rintu Sen Vaishali Sharda Zachary T. Zambreski Ikenna Onyekwelu Katherine S. Nelson |
| author_sort | Rintu Sen |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Climate change significantly threatens food security and the agricultural economy, particularly under rainfed conditions. This study uses the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) crop simulation model to evaluate the future suitability of growing maize and soybean in the Eastern Kansas River Basin (EKSRB) under two projected climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) from 2006 to 2099. By comparing the baseline (1990–2019) and future climates, the yield gap percentage method is employed to quantify the discrepancy between actual and potential yields. This innovative approach integrates spatial soil variability and advanced climate projections from 18 global climate model (GCMs), enhancing the accuracy of crop suitability assessments. Results indicate yield losses ranging from 23% to 57% for maize and 20% to 36% for soybean, with maize experiencing a greater yield gap than soybean, highlighting soybean’s resilience under future climatic conditions. The study identifies critical regions within the EKSRB where adaptive strategies are most needed and provides insights for policymakers to develop targeted agricultural strategies, facilitate policy planning, and select mitigation strategies for vulnerable areas. This research underscores the necessity for adaptive agricultural practices to ensure food security and sustainability, offering a robust framework that can be adapted to similar regions globally. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-6c64070a01d8441c8d2a85b74eba812a |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2083-4535 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-11-01 |
| publisher | Polish Academy of Sciences |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Water and Land Development |
| spelling | doaj-art-6c64070a01d8441c8d2a85b74eba812a2024-12-30T18:50:11ZengPolish Academy of SciencesJournal of Water and Land Development2083-45352024-11-01No 63145157https://doi.org/10.24425/jwld.2024.151800Effects of future climate on suitability of major crops in Eastern Kansas River BasinRintu Sen0Vaishali Sharda1Zachary T. Zambreski2Ikenna Onyekwelu3Katherine S. NelsonKansas State University, College of Engineering, Department of Biological and Agricultural Engineering, 1016 Seaton Hall, 920 N. Martin Luther King Jr. Drive, Manhattan, KS 66506, USAKansas State University, College of Engineering, Department of Biological and Agricultural Engineering, 1016 Seaton Hall, 920 N. Martin Luther King Jr. Drive, Manhattan, KS 66506, USAKansas State University, College of Agriculture, Department of Agronomy, 2004 Throckmorton PSC, 1712 Claflin Rd, Manhattan, KS 66506, USAKansas State University, College of Engineering, Department of Biological and Agricultural Engineering, 1016 Seaton Hall, 920 N. Martin Luther King Jr. Drive, Manhattan, KS 66506, USAClimate change significantly threatens food security and the agricultural economy, particularly under rainfed conditions. This study uses the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) crop simulation model to evaluate the future suitability of growing maize and soybean in the Eastern Kansas River Basin (EKSRB) under two projected climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) from 2006 to 2099. By comparing the baseline (1990–2019) and future climates, the yield gap percentage method is employed to quantify the discrepancy between actual and potential yields. This innovative approach integrates spatial soil variability and advanced climate projections from 18 global climate model (GCMs), enhancing the accuracy of crop suitability assessments. Results indicate yield losses ranging from 23% to 57% for maize and 20% to 36% for soybean, with maize experiencing a greater yield gap than soybean, highlighting soybean’s resilience under future climatic conditions. The study identifies critical regions within the EKSRB where adaptive strategies are most needed and provides insights for policymakers to develop targeted agricultural strategies, facilitate policy planning, and select mitigation strategies for vulnerable areas. This research underscores the necessity for adaptive agricultural practices to ensure food security and sustainability, offering a robust framework that can be adapted to similar regions globally.https://journals.pan.pl/Content/133585/2024-04-JWLD-17.pdfagricultureclimate changedecision support system for agrotechnology transfer modelrepresentative concentration pathwaysyield gap |
| spellingShingle | Rintu Sen Vaishali Sharda Zachary T. Zambreski Ikenna Onyekwelu Katherine S. Nelson Effects of future climate on suitability of major crops in Eastern Kansas River Basin Journal of Water and Land Development agriculture climate change decision support system for agrotechnology transfer model representative concentration pathways yield gap |
| title | Effects of future climate on suitability of major crops in Eastern Kansas River Basin |
| title_full | Effects of future climate on suitability of major crops in Eastern Kansas River Basin |
| title_fullStr | Effects of future climate on suitability of major crops in Eastern Kansas River Basin |
| title_full_unstemmed | Effects of future climate on suitability of major crops in Eastern Kansas River Basin |
| title_short | Effects of future climate on suitability of major crops in Eastern Kansas River Basin |
| title_sort | effects of future climate on suitability of major crops in eastern kansas river basin |
| topic | agriculture climate change decision support system for agrotechnology transfer model representative concentration pathways yield gap |
| url | https://journals.pan.pl/Content/133585/2024-04-JWLD-17.pdf |
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