Spatially resolved emulated annual temperature projections for overshoot pathways
Abstract Due to insufficient climate action over the past decade, it is increasingly likely that 1.5 °C of global warming will be exceeded – at least temporarily – in the 21st century. Such a temporary temperature overshoot carries additional climate risks which are poorly understood. Earth System M...
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| Format: | Article |
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Nature Portfolio
2024-11-01
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| Series: | Scientific Data |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-024-04122-1 |
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| author | Jonas Schwaab Mathias Hauser Robin D. Lamboll Lea Beusch Lukas Gudmundsson Yann Quilcaille Quentin Lejeune Sarah Schöngart Carl-Friedrich Schleussner Shruti Nath Joeri Rogelj Zebedee Nicholls Sonia I. Seneviratne |
| author_facet | Jonas Schwaab Mathias Hauser Robin D. Lamboll Lea Beusch Lukas Gudmundsson Yann Quilcaille Quentin Lejeune Sarah Schöngart Carl-Friedrich Schleussner Shruti Nath Joeri Rogelj Zebedee Nicholls Sonia I. Seneviratne |
| author_sort | Jonas Schwaab |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Due to insufficient climate action over the past decade, it is increasingly likely that 1.5 °C of global warming will be exceeded – at least temporarily – in the 21st century. Such a temporary temperature overshoot carries additional climate risks which are poorly understood. Earth System Model climate projections are only available for a very limited number of overshoot pathways, thereby preventing comprehensive analysis of their impacts. Here, we address this issue by presenting a novel dataset of spatially resolved emulated annual temperature projections for different overshoot pathways. The dataset was created using the FaIR and MESMER emulators. First, FaIR was employed to translate ten different emission scenarios, including seven that are characterised by overshoot, into a large ensemble of forced global mean temperatures. These global mean temperatures were then converted into stochastic ensembles of local annual temperature fields using MESMER. To ensure an optimal tradeoff between accurate characterization of the ensemble spread and storage requirements for large ensembles, this procedure was accompanied by testing the sensitivity of sample quantiles to different ensemble sizes. The resulting dataset offers the unique opportunity to study local and regional climate change impacts of a range of overshoot scenarios, including the timing and magnitude of temperature thresholds exceedance. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-6a314b8973e34a07b0cde5dfc881b57a |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2052-4463 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-11-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Data |
| spelling | doaj-art-6a314b8973e34a07b0cde5dfc881b57a2024-11-24T12:10:03ZengNature PortfolioScientific Data2052-44632024-11-0111111010.1038/s41597-024-04122-1Spatially resolved emulated annual temperature projections for overshoot pathwaysJonas Schwaab0Mathias Hauser1Robin D. Lamboll2Lea Beusch3Lukas Gudmundsson4Yann Quilcaille5Quentin Lejeune6Sarah Schöngart7Carl-Friedrich Schleussner8Shruti Nath9Joeri Rogelj10Zebedee Nicholls11Sonia I. Seneviratne12Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH ZurichInstitute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH ZurichCentre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College LondonInstitute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH ZurichInstitute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH ZurichInstitute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH ZurichClimate AnalyticsClimate AnalyticsInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)Climate AnalyticsCentre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College LondonEnergy, Climate and Environment Program, International Institute for Applied Systems AnalysisInstitute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH ZurichAbstract Due to insufficient climate action over the past decade, it is increasingly likely that 1.5 °C of global warming will be exceeded – at least temporarily – in the 21st century. Such a temporary temperature overshoot carries additional climate risks which are poorly understood. Earth System Model climate projections are only available for a very limited number of overshoot pathways, thereby preventing comprehensive analysis of their impacts. Here, we address this issue by presenting a novel dataset of spatially resolved emulated annual temperature projections for different overshoot pathways. The dataset was created using the FaIR and MESMER emulators. First, FaIR was employed to translate ten different emission scenarios, including seven that are characterised by overshoot, into a large ensemble of forced global mean temperatures. These global mean temperatures were then converted into stochastic ensembles of local annual temperature fields using MESMER. To ensure an optimal tradeoff between accurate characterization of the ensemble spread and storage requirements for large ensembles, this procedure was accompanied by testing the sensitivity of sample quantiles to different ensemble sizes. The resulting dataset offers the unique opportunity to study local and regional climate change impacts of a range of overshoot scenarios, including the timing and magnitude of temperature thresholds exceedance.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-024-04122-1 |
| spellingShingle | Jonas Schwaab Mathias Hauser Robin D. Lamboll Lea Beusch Lukas Gudmundsson Yann Quilcaille Quentin Lejeune Sarah Schöngart Carl-Friedrich Schleussner Shruti Nath Joeri Rogelj Zebedee Nicholls Sonia I. Seneviratne Spatially resolved emulated annual temperature projections for overshoot pathways Scientific Data |
| title | Spatially resolved emulated annual temperature projections for overshoot pathways |
| title_full | Spatially resolved emulated annual temperature projections for overshoot pathways |
| title_fullStr | Spatially resolved emulated annual temperature projections for overshoot pathways |
| title_full_unstemmed | Spatially resolved emulated annual temperature projections for overshoot pathways |
| title_short | Spatially resolved emulated annual temperature projections for overshoot pathways |
| title_sort | spatially resolved emulated annual temperature projections for overshoot pathways |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-024-04122-1 |
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