Increasing temporal stability of global tropical cyclone precipitation
Abstract Tropical cyclone (TC) precipitation has led to escalating urban flooding and transportation disruptions in recent years. The volatility of the TC rain rate (RR) over short periods complicates accurate forecasting. Here, we use satellite-based observational rainfall datasets from 1998 to 201...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2025-01-01
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| Series: | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00896-2 |
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| author | E Deng Qian Xiang Johnny C. L. Chan Yue Dong Shifei Tu Pak-Wai Chan Yi-Qing Ni |
| author_facet | E Deng Qian Xiang Johnny C. L. Chan Yue Dong Shifei Tu Pak-Wai Chan Yi-Qing Ni |
| author_sort | E Deng |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Tropical cyclone (TC) precipitation has led to escalating urban flooding and transportation disruptions in recent years. The volatility of the TC rain rate (RR) over short periods complicates accurate forecasting. Here, we use satellite-based observational rainfall datasets from 1998 to 2019 to calculate changes in TC 24-h RR and quantify the temporal stability of TC precipitation. We demonstrate a significant global increase in the annual temporal stability of TC RR across the total rainfall area, inner-core, and rainband areas. Specifically, the probabilities of rapid RR increase and decrease events in the TC total rainfall area decreased at rates of –1.74 ± 0.57% per decade and –2.23 ± 0.55% per decade, respectively. Based on the reanalysis dataset, we propose that the synergistic effects of increased atmospheric stability and total column water vapor—both resulting from anthropogenic warming at low latitudes—are potentially associated with this trend. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-684baac432ab4ac58fbff400b2361e55 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2397-3722 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| spelling | doaj-art-684baac432ab4ac58fbff400b2361e552025-01-12T12:13:29ZengNature Portfolionpj Climate and Atmospheric Science2397-37222025-01-01811910.1038/s41612-025-00896-2Increasing temporal stability of global tropical cyclone precipitationE Deng0Qian Xiang1Johnny C. L. Chan2Yue Dong3Shifei Tu4Pak-Wai Chan5Yi-Qing Ni6Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The Hong Kong Polytechnic UniversityDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The Hong Kong Polytechnic UniversitySchool of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong KongDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The Hong Kong Polytechnic UniversityCollege of Ocean and Meteorology, Guangdong Ocean UniversityThe Hong Kong ObservatoryDepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The Hong Kong Polytechnic UniversityAbstract Tropical cyclone (TC) precipitation has led to escalating urban flooding and transportation disruptions in recent years. The volatility of the TC rain rate (RR) over short periods complicates accurate forecasting. Here, we use satellite-based observational rainfall datasets from 1998 to 2019 to calculate changes in TC 24-h RR and quantify the temporal stability of TC precipitation. We demonstrate a significant global increase in the annual temporal stability of TC RR across the total rainfall area, inner-core, and rainband areas. Specifically, the probabilities of rapid RR increase and decrease events in the TC total rainfall area decreased at rates of –1.74 ± 0.57% per decade and –2.23 ± 0.55% per decade, respectively. Based on the reanalysis dataset, we propose that the synergistic effects of increased atmospheric stability and total column water vapor—both resulting from anthropogenic warming at low latitudes—are potentially associated with this trend.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00896-2 |
| spellingShingle | E Deng Qian Xiang Johnny C. L. Chan Yue Dong Shifei Tu Pak-Wai Chan Yi-Qing Ni Increasing temporal stability of global tropical cyclone precipitation npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
| title | Increasing temporal stability of global tropical cyclone precipitation |
| title_full | Increasing temporal stability of global tropical cyclone precipitation |
| title_fullStr | Increasing temporal stability of global tropical cyclone precipitation |
| title_full_unstemmed | Increasing temporal stability of global tropical cyclone precipitation |
| title_short | Increasing temporal stability of global tropical cyclone precipitation |
| title_sort | increasing temporal stability of global tropical cyclone precipitation |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-00896-2 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT edeng increasingtemporalstabilityofglobaltropicalcycloneprecipitation AT qianxiang increasingtemporalstabilityofglobaltropicalcycloneprecipitation AT johnnyclchan increasingtemporalstabilityofglobaltropicalcycloneprecipitation AT yuedong increasingtemporalstabilityofglobaltropicalcycloneprecipitation AT shifeitu increasingtemporalstabilityofglobaltropicalcycloneprecipitation AT pakwaichan increasingtemporalstabilityofglobaltropicalcycloneprecipitation AT yiqingni increasingtemporalstabilityofglobaltropicalcycloneprecipitation |