A Quantitative Risk Assessment Model for <i>Listeria monocytogenes</i> in Ready-to-Eat Smoked and Gravad Fish
This study introduces a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) model aimed at evaluating the risk of invasive listeriosis linked to the consumption of ready-to-eat (RTE) smoked and gravad fish. The QRA model, based on published data, simulates the production process from fish harvest through to consumer...
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MDPI AG
2024-11-01
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| Series: | Foods |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2304-8158/13/23/3831 |
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| author | Ursula Gonzales-Barron Régis Pouillot Taran Skjerdal Elena Carrasco Paula Teixeira Matthew J. Stasiewicz Akio Hasegawa Juliana De Oliveira Mota Laurent Guillier Vasco Cadavez Moez Sanaa |
| author_facet | Ursula Gonzales-Barron Régis Pouillot Taran Skjerdal Elena Carrasco Paula Teixeira Matthew J. Stasiewicz Akio Hasegawa Juliana De Oliveira Mota Laurent Guillier Vasco Cadavez Moez Sanaa |
| author_sort | Ursula Gonzales-Barron |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This study introduces a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) model aimed at evaluating the risk of invasive listeriosis linked to the consumption of ready-to-eat (RTE) smoked and gravad fish. The QRA model, based on published data, simulates the production process from fish harvest through to consumer intake, specifically focusing on smoked brine-injected, smoked dry-salted, and gravad fish. In a reference scenario, model predictions reveal substantial probabilities of lot and pack contamination at the end of processing (38.7% and 8.14% for smoked brined fish, 34.4% and 6.49% for smoked dry-salted fish, and 52.2% and 11.1% for gravad fish), although the concentrations of <i>L. monocytogenes</i> are very low, with virtually no packs exceeding 10 CFU/g at the point of sale. The risk of listeriosis for an elderly consumer per serving is also quantified. The lot-level mean risk of listeriosis per serving in the elderly population was 9.751 × 10<sup>−8</sup> for smoked brined fish, 9.634 × 10<sup>−8</sup> for smoked dry-salted fish, and 2.086 × 10<sup>−7</sup> for gravad fish. Risk reduction strategies were then analyzed, indicating that the application of protective cultures and maintaining lower cold storage temperatures significantly mitigate listeriosis risk compared to reducing incoming fish lot contamination. The model also addresses the effectiveness of control measures during processing, such as minimizing cross-contamination. The comprehensive QRA model has been made available as a fully documented qraLm R package. This facilitates its adaptation for risk assessment of other RTE seafood, making it a valuable tool for public health officials to evaluate and manage food safety risks more effectively. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-668837d037ed4476b23c3852d1dbc9e7 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2304-8158 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-11-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Foods |
| spelling | doaj-art-668837d037ed4476b23c3852d1dbc9e72024-12-13T16:26:44ZengMDPI AGFoods2304-81582024-11-011323383110.3390/foods13233831A Quantitative Risk Assessment Model for <i>Listeria monocytogenes</i> in Ready-to-Eat Smoked and Gravad FishUrsula Gonzales-Barron0Régis Pouillot1Taran Skjerdal2Elena Carrasco3Paula Teixeira4Matthew J. Stasiewicz5Akio Hasegawa6Juliana De Oliveira Mota7Laurent Guillier8Vasco Cadavez9Moez Sanaa10Centro de Investigação de Montanha (CIMO), Instituto Politécnico de Bragança, Campus de Santa Apolónia, 5300-253 Bragança, PortugalIndependent Researcher, 18 rue Mohamed Al Ghazi, Rabat 10170, MoroccoNorwegian Veterinary Institute, Section of Bacteriology—Food and GMO, Postbox Sentrum 750, N-0106 Oslo, NorwayDepartamento de Ciencia y Tecnología de los Alimentos, UIC Zoonosis y Enfermedades Emergentes (ENZOEM), Campus de Excelencia Internacional en Agroalimentación (CeiA3), Universidad de Córdoba, Campus Rabanales, Edificio Darwin-Anexo, E-14071 Córdoba, SpainCBQF—Centro de Biotecnologia e Química Fina—Laboratório Associado, Escola Superior de Biotecnologia, Universidade Católica Portuguesa, Rua Diogo Botelho 1327, 4169-005 Porto, PortugalDepartment of Food Science and Human Nutrition, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 905 S Goodwin Ave., Urbana, IL 61801, USANutrition and Food Safety Department, World Health Organization, 1202 Geneva, SwitzerlandNutrition and Food Safety Department, World Health Organization, 1202 Geneva, SwitzerlandRisk Assessment Department, French Agency for Food, Environmental and Occupational Health & Safety (Anses), 14 rue Pierre et Marie Curie, 94701 Maisons-Alfort, FranceCentro de Investigação de Montanha (CIMO), Instituto Politécnico de Bragança, Campus de Santa Apolónia, 5300-253 Bragança, PortugalNutrition and Food Safety Department, World Health Organization, 1202 Geneva, SwitzerlandThis study introduces a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) model aimed at evaluating the risk of invasive listeriosis linked to the consumption of ready-to-eat (RTE) smoked and gravad fish. The QRA model, based on published data, simulates the production process from fish harvest through to consumer intake, specifically focusing on smoked brine-injected, smoked dry-salted, and gravad fish. In a reference scenario, model predictions reveal substantial probabilities of lot and pack contamination at the end of processing (38.7% and 8.14% for smoked brined fish, 34.4% and 6.49% for smoked dry-salted fish, and 52.2% and 11.1% for gravad fish), although the concentrations of <i>L. monocytogenes</i> are very low, with virtually no packs exceeding 10 CFU/g at the point of sale. The risk of listeriosis for an elderly consumer per serving is also quantified. The lot-level mean risk of listeriosis per serving in the elderly population was 9.751 × 10<sup>−8</sup> for smoked brined fish, 9.634 × 10<sup>−8</sup> for smoked dry-salted fish, and 2.086 × 10<sup>−7</sup> for gravad fish. Risk reduction strategies were then analyzed, indicating that the application of protective cultures and maintaining lower cold storage temperatures significantly mitigate listeriosis risk compared to reducing incoming fish lot contamination. The model also addresses the effectiveness of control measures during processing, such as minimizing cross-contamination. The comprehensive QRA model has been made available as a fully documented qraLm R package. This facilitates its adaptation for risk assessment of other RTE seafood, making it a valuable tool for public health officials to evaluate and manage food safety risks more effectively.https://www.mdpi.com/2304-8158/13/23/3831brined fishsalted fishgravlaxlisteriosisexposure assessmentsimulation |
| spellingShingle | Ursula Gonzales-Barron Régis Pouillot Taran Skjerdal Elena Carrasco Paula Teixeira Matthew J. Stasiewicz Akio Hasegawa Juliana De Oliveira Mota Laurent Guillier Vasco Cadavez Moez Sanaa A Quantitative Risk Assessment Model for <i>Listeria monocytogenes</i> in Ready-to-Eat Smoked and Gravad Fish Foods brined fish salted fish gravlax listeriosis exposure assessment simulation |
| title | A Quantitative Risk Assessment Model for <i>Listeria monocytogenes</i> in Ready-to-Eat Smoked and Gravad Fish |
| title_full | A Quantitative Risk Assessment Model for <i>Listeria monocytogenes</i> in Ready-to-Eat Smoked and Gravad Fish |
| title_fullStr | A Quantitative Risk Assessment Model for <i>Listeria monocytogenes</i> in Ready-to-Eat Smoked and Gravad Fish |
| title_full_unstemmed | A Quantitative Risk Assessment Model for <i>Listeria monocytogenes</i> in Ready-to-Eat Smoked and Gravad Fish |
| title_short | A Quantitative Risk Assessment Model for <i>Listeria monocytogenes</i> in Ready-to-Eat Smoked and Gravad Fish |
| title_sort | quantitative risk assessment model for i listeria monocytogenes i in ready to eat smoked and gravad fish |
| topic | brined fish salted fish gravlax listeriosis exposure assessment simulation |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2304-8158/13/23/3831 |
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