Unveiling pandemic patterns: a detailed analysis of transmission and severity parameters across four COVID-19 waves in Bogotá, Colombia
Abstract Background Despite a wealth of data from high-income countries, there is limited information on the distinct epidemiological patterns observed in diverse, densely populated regions within Latin America. This retrospective analysis of COVID-19’s four major waves in Bogotá, Colombia, evaluate...
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BMC
2024-12-01
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| Series: | BMC Global and Public Health |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s44263-024-00105-x |
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| author | David Santiago Quevedo Nicolás T. Domínguez Diego Fernando Perez Maria Alejandra Cabrera Polanía Juan David Serrano Medina Felipe Segundo Abril-Bermúdez Diane Moyano Romero Diana Sofia Rios Oliveros Manuel Alfredo González Mayorga Charles Whittaker Zulma M. Cucunubá |
| author_facet | David Santiago Quevedo Nicolás T. Domínguez Diego Fernando Perez Maria Alejandra Cabrera Polanía Juan David Serrano Medina Felipe Segundo Abril-Bermúdez Diane Moyano Romero Diana Sofia Rios Oliveros Manuel Alfredo González Mayorga Charles Whittaker Zulma M. Cucunubá |
| author_sort | David Santiago Quevedo |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background Despite a wealth of data from high-income countries, there is limited information on the distinct epidemiological patterns observed in diverse, densely populated regions within Latin America. This retrospective analysis of COVID-19’s four major waves in Bogotá, Colombia, evaluates 1.77 million cases in detail. Methods A comprehensive suite of statistical methods was employed. Transmission dynamics were assessed by estimating the instantaneous reproduction number $$R(t)$$ R ( t ) , while variant-specific transmission advantages were estimated using multinomial logistic regression models. Disease severity was assessed through a suite of indicators: Hospitalisation Case Ratio (HCR), intensive care unit case ratio (ICU-CR), case fatality ratio (CFR), hospitalisation fatality ratio (HFR), and ICU fatality ratio (ICU-FR). Additionally, we analysed the distribution of hospitalisations, ICU admissions, and fatalities by age group and wave. We employed a Bayesian hierarchical model to capture epidemiological delays—such as onset-to-death, hospitalisation, and ICU admission durations to estimate hospital and ICU stay durations. Results Our findings reveal substantial variation in $$R(t)$$ R ( t ) , with peaks exceeding 2.5 during the ancestral and Omicron waves. Over the course of the pandemic, we observed a 78% reduction in CFR, underscoring shifts in clinical severity. The third wave, associated with the Mu variant, recorded the highest case and death counts, alongside a decreased CFR, an elevated HFR, and a shift in the most affected age group towards younger populations. In contrast, the fourth wave, driven by the Omicron variant, exhibited the highest reproduction number and the lowest overall severity. This wave was characterised by a significant increase in pediatric hospitalisations. The study reveals a continued decline in the mean durations of hospital and ICU stays across the four waves, with hospital stays decreasing from 10.84 to 7.85 days and ICU stays dropping from 16.2 to 12.4 days. Conclusions This study reveals significant shifts in transmission and severity metrics—including mortality, hospitalisation, and ICU rates and stays—across age groups during Bogotá’s four COVID-19 waves. These insights underscore the value of retrospective analyses to understand the pandemic’s varied impact and inform public health strategies in diverse urban settings. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-62fea246835f4b16a44895de573f099b |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2731-913X |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-12-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
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| series | BMC Global and Public Health |
| spelling | doaj-art-62fea246835f4b16a44895de573f099b2024-12-15T12:13:43ZengBMCBMC Global and Public Health2731-913X2024-12-012111110.1186/s44263-024-00105-xUnveiling pandemic patterns: a detailed analysis of transmission and severity parameters across four COVID-19 waves in Bogotá, ColombiaDavid Santiago Quevedo0Nicolás T. Domínguez1Diego Fernando Perez2Maria Alejandra Cabrera Polanía3Juan David Serrano Medina4Felipe Segundo Abril-Bermúdez5Diane Moyano Romero6Diana Sofia Rios Oliveros7Manuel Alfredo González Mayorga8Charles Whittaker9Zulma M. Cucunubá10Departamento de Epidemiología Clínica y Bioestadística, Pontificia Universidad JaverianaDepartamento de Epidemiología Clínica y Bioestadística, Pontificia Universidad JaverianaDirección de Epidemiología, Análisis y Gestión de Políticas de Salud Colectiva, Secretaría Distrital de Salud de BogotáDirección de Epidemiología, Análisis y Gestión de Políticas de Salud Colectiva, Secretaría Distrital de Salud de BogotáDirección de Epidemiología, Análisis y Gestión de Políticas de Salud Colectiva, Secretaría Distrital de Salud de BogotáDirección de Epidemiología, Análisis y Gestión de Políticas de Salud Colectiva, Secretaría Distrital de Salud de BogotáDirección de Epidemiología, Análisis y Gestión de Políticas de Salud Colectiva, Secretaría Distrital de Salud de BogotáDirección de Epidemiología, Análisis y Gestión de Políticas de Salud Colectiva, Secretaría Distrital de Salud de BogotáDirección de Epidemiología, Análisis y Gestión de Políticas de Salud Colectiva, Secretaría Distrital de Salud de BogotáMRC Centre for Global Disease Analysis, Imperial College LondonDepartamento de Epidemiología Clínica y Bioestadística, Pontificia Universidad JaverianaAbstract Background Despite a wealth of data from high-income countries, there is limited information on the distinct epidemiological patterns observed in diverse, densely populated regions within Latin America. This retrospective analysis of COVID-19’s four major waves in Bogotá, Colombia, evaluates 1.77 million cases in detail. Methods A comprehensive suite of statistical methods was employed. Transmission dynamics were assessed by estimating the instantaneous reproduction number $$R(t)$$ R ( t ) , while variant-specific transmission advantages were estimated using multinomial logistic regression models. Disease severity was assessed through a suite of indicators: Hospitalisation Case Ratio (HCR), intensive care unit case ratio (ICU-CR), case fatality ratio (CFR), hospitalisation fatality ratio (HFR), and ICU fatality ratio (ICU-FR). Additionally, we analysed the distribution of hospitalisations, ICU admissions, and fatalities by age group and wave. We employed a Bayesian hierarchical model to capture epidemiological delays—such as onset-to-death, hospitalisation, and ICU admission durations to estimate hospital and ICU stay durations. Results Our findings reveal substantial variation in $$R(t)$$ R ( t ) , with peaks exceeding 2.5 during the ancestral and Omicron waves. Over the course of the pandemic, we observed a 78% reduction in CFR, underscoring shifts in clinical severity. The third wave, associated with the Mu variant, recorded the highest case and death counts, alongside a decreased CFR, an elevated HFR, and a shift in the most affected age group towards younger populations. In contrast, the fourth wave, driven by the Omicron variant, exhibited the highest reproduction number and the lowest overall severity. This wave was characterised by a significant increase in pediatric hospitalisations. The study reveals a continued decline in the mean durations of hospital and ICU stays across the four waves, with hospital stays decreasing from 10.84 to 7.85 days and ICU stays dropping from 16.2 to 12.4 days. Conclusions This study reveals significant shifts in transmission and severity metrics—including mortality, hospitalisation, and ICU rates and stays—across age groups during Bogotá’s four COVID-19 waves. These insights underscore the value of retrospective analyses to understand the pandemic’s varied impact and inform public health strategies in diverse urban settings.https://doi.org/10.1186/s44263-024-00105-xCOVID-19DynamicsSeverityDelaysColombia |
| spellingShingle | David Santiago Quevedo Nicolás T. Domínguez Diego Fernando Perez Maria Alejandra Cabrera Polanía Juan David Serrano Medina Felipe Segundo Abril-Bermúdez Diane Moyano Romero Diana Sofia Rios Oliveros Manuel Alfredo González Mayorga Charles Whittaker Zulma M. Cucunubá Unveiling pandemic patterns: a detailed analysis of transmission and severity parameters across four COVID-19 waves in Bogotá, Colombia BMC Global and Public Health COVID-19 Dynamics Severity Delays Colombia |
| title | Unveiling pandemic patterns: a detailed analysis of transmission and severity parameters across four COVID-19 waves in Bogotá, Colombia |
| title_full | Unveiling pandemic patterns: a detailed analysis of transmission and severity parameters across four COVID-19 waves in Bogotá, Colombia |
| title_fullStr | Unveiling pandemic patterns: a detailed analysis of transmission and severity parameters across four COVID-19 waves in Bogotá, Colombia |
| title_full_unstemmed | Unveiling pandemic patterns: a detailed analysis of transmission and severity parameters across four COVID-19 waves in Bogotá, Colombia |
| title_short | Unveiling pandemic patterns: a detailed analysis of transmission and severity parameters across four COVID-19 waves in Bogotá, Colombia |
| title_sort | unveiling pandemic patterns a detailed analysis of transmission and severity parameters across four covid 19 waves in bogota colombia |
| topic | COVID-19 Dynamics Severity Delays Colombia |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s44263-024-00105-x |
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