Expert elicitation of state shifts and divergent sensitivities to climate warming across northern ecosystems
Abstract Northern regions are warming faster than the rest of the globe. It is difficult to predict ecosystem responses to warming because the thermal sensitivity of their biophysical components varies. Here, we present an analysis of the authors’ expert judgment regarding the sensitivity of six eco...
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| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2024-10-01
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| Series: | Communications Earth & Environment |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01791-z |
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| author | Émilie Saulnier-Talbot Éliane Duchesne Dermot Antoniades Dominique Arseneault Christine Barnard Dominique Berteaux Najat Bhiry Frédéric Bouchard Stéphane Boudreau Kevin Cazelles Jérôme Comte Madeleine-Zoé Corbeil-Robitaille Steeve D. Côté Raoul-Marie Couture Guillaume de Lafontaine Florent Domine Dominique Fauteux Daniel Fortier Michelle Garneau Gilles Gauthier Dominique Gravel Isabelle Laurion Martin Lavoie Nicolas Lecomte Pierre Legagneux Esther Lévesque Marie-José Naud Michel Paquette Serge Payette Reinhard Pienitz Milla Rautio Alexandre Roy Alain Royer Martin Simard Warwick F. Vincent Joël Bêty |
| author_facet | Émilie Saulnier-Talbot Éliane Duchesne Dermot Antoniades Dominique Arseneault Christine Barnard Dominique Berteaux Najat Bhiry Frédéric Bouchard Stéphane Boudreau Kevin Cazelles Jérôme Comte Madeleine-Zoé Corbeil-Robitaille Steeve D. Côté Raoul-Marie Couture Guillaume de Lafontaine Florent Domine Dominique Fauteux Daniel Fortier Michelle Garneau Gilles Gauthier Dominique Gravel Isabelle Laurion Martin Lavoie Nicolas Lecomte Pierre Legagneux Esther Lévesque Marie-José Naud Michel Paquette Serge Payette Reinhard Pienitz Milla Rautio Alexandre Roy Alain Royer Martin Simard Warwick F. Vincent Joël Bêty |
| author_sort | Émilie Saulnier-Talbot |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Northern regions are warming faster than the rest of the globe. It is difficult to predict ecosystem responses to warming because the thermal sensitivity of their biophysical components varies. Here, we present an analysis of the authors’ expert judgment regarding the sensitivity of six ecosystem components – permafrost, peatlands, lakes, snowpack, vegetation, and endothermic vertebrates – across northern landscapes ranging from boreal to polar biomes. We identified 28 discontinuous component states across a 3700 km latitudinal gradient in northeastern North America and quantified sensitivity as the transition time from an initial to a contrasting state following a theoretical step change increase in mean annual air temperature of 5 °C. We infer that multiple interconnected state shifts are likely to occur within a narrow subarctic latitudinal band at timescales of 10 to more than 100 years, and response times decrease with latitude. Response times differ between components and across latitudes, which is likely to impair the integrity of ecosystems. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-62b0154e86ce4b5d8d8c6e86fd3c6fd8 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2662-4435 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-10-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Communications Earth & Environment |
| spelling | doaj-art-62b0154e86ce4b5d8d8c6e86fd3c6fd82024-12-29T12:48:49ZengNature PortfolioCommunications Earth & Environment2662-44352024-10-015111510.1038/s43247-024-01791-zExpert elicitation of state shifts and divergent sensitivities to climate warming across northern ecosystemsÉmilie Saulnier-Talbot0Éliane Duchesne1Dermot Antoniades2Dominique Arseneault3Christine Barnard4Dominique Berteaux5Najat Bhiry6Frédéric Bouchard7Stéphane Boudreau8Kevin Cazelles9Jérôme Comte10Madeleine-Zoé Corbeil-Robitaille11Steeve D. Côté12Raoul-Marie Couture13Guillaume de Lafontaine14Florent Domine15Dominique Fauteux16Daniel Fortier17Michelle Garneau18Gilles Gauthier19Dominique Gravel20Isabelle Laurion21Martin Lavoie22Nicolas Lecomte23Pierre Legagneux24Esther Lévesque25Marie-José Naud26Michel Paquette27Serge Payette28Reinhard Pienitz29Milla Rautio30Alexandre Roy31Alain Royer32Martin Simard33Warwick F. Vincent34Joël Bêty35Département de biologie, Université LavalThe Centre d’études nordiques (CEN Centre for northern studies), Québec CityDépartement de géographie, Université LavalThe Centre d’études nordiques (CEN Centre for northern studies), Québec CityThe Centre d’études nordiques (CEN Centre for northern studies), Québec CityThe Centre d’études nordiques (CEN Centre for northern studies), Québec CityDépartement de géographie, Université LavalThe Centre d’études nordiques (CEN Centre for northern studies), Québec CityDépartement de biologie, Université LavalThe Centre d’études nordiques (CEN Centre for northern studies), Québec CityThe Centre d’études nordiques (CEN Centre for northern studies), Québec CityThe Centre d’études nordiques (CEN Centre for northern studies), Québec CityDépartement de biologie, Université LavalThe Centre d’études nordiques (CEN Centre for northern studies), Québec CityThe Centre d’études nordiques (CEN Centre for northern studies), Québec CityThe Centre d’études nordiques (CEN Centre for northern studies), Québec CityThe Centre d’études nordiques (CEN Centre for northern studies), Québec CityThe Centre d’études nordiques (CEN Centre for northern studies), Québec CityThe Centre d’études nordiques (CEN Centre for northern studies), Québec CityDépartement de biologie, Université LavalThe Centre d’études nordiques (CEN Centre for northern studies), Québec CityThe Centre d’études nordiques (CEN Centre for northern studies), Québec CityDépartement de géographie, Université LavalThe Centre d’études nordiques (CEN Centre for northern studies), Québec CityDépartement de biologie, Université LavalThe Centre d’études nordiques (CEN Centre for northern studies), Québec CityThe Centre d’études nordiques (CEN Centre for northern studies), Québec CityThe Centre d’études nordiques (CEN Centre for northern studies), Québec CityDépartement de biologie, Université LavalDépartement de géographie, Université LavalThe Centre d’études nordiques (CEN Centre for northern studies), Québec CityThe Centre d’études nordiques (CEN Centre for northern studies), Québec CityThe Centre d’études nordiques (CEN Centre for northern studies), Québec CityDépartement de géographie, Université LavalDépartement de biologie, Université LavalThe Centre d’études nordiques (CEN Centre for northern studies), Québec CityAbstract Northern regions are warming faster than the rest of the globe. It is difficult to predict ecosystem responses to warming because the thermal sensitivity of their biophysical components varies. Here, we present an analysis of the authors’ expert judgment regarding the sensitivity of six ecosystem components – permafrost, peatlands, lakes, snowpack, vegetation, and endothermic vertebrates – across northern landscapes ranging from boreal to polar biomes. We identified 28 discontinuous component states across a 3700 km latitudinal gradient in northeastern North America and quantified sensitivity as the transition time from an initial to a contrasting state following a theoretical step change increase in mean annual air temperature of 5 °C. We infer that multiple interconnected state shifts are likely to occur within a narrow subarctic latitudinal band at timescales of 10 to more than 100 years, and response times decrease with latitude. Response times differ between components and across latitudes, which is likely to impair the integrity of ecosystems.https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01791-z |
| spellingShingle | Émilie Saulnier-Talbot Éliane Duchesne Dermot Antoniades Dominique Arseneault Christine Barnard Dominique Berteaux Najat Bhiry Frédéric Bouchard Stéphane Boudreau Kevin Cazelles Jérôme Comte Madeleine-Zoé Corbeil-Robitaille Steeve D. Côté Raoul-Marie Couture Guillaume de Lafontaine Florent Domine Dominique Fauteux Daniel Fortier Michelle Garneau Gilles Gauthier Dominique Gravel Isabelle Laurion Martin Lavoie Nicolas Lecomte Pierre Legagneux Esther Lévesque Marie-José Naud Michel Paquette Serge Payette Reinhard Pienitz Milla Rautio Alexandre Roy Alain Royer Martin Simard Warwick F. Vincent Joël Bêty Expert elicitation of state shifts and divergent sensitivities to climate warming across northern ecosystems Communications Earth & Environment |
| title | Expert elicitation of state shifts and divergent sensitivities to climate warming across northern ecosystems |
| title_full | Expert elicitation of state shifts and divergent sensitivities to climate warming across northern ecosystems |
| title_fullStr | Expert elicitation of state shifts and divergent sensitivities to climate warming across northern ecosystems |
| title_full_unstemmed | Expert elicitation of state shifts and divergent sensitivities to climate warming across northern ecosystems |
| title_short | Expert elicitation of state shifts and divergent sensitivities to climate warming across northern ecosystems |
| title_sort | expert elicitation of state shifts and divergent sensitivities to climate warming across northern ecosystems |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01791-z |
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