Fire, environmental and anthropogenic controls on pantropical tree cover
Abstract Explaining tropical tree cover distribution in areas of intermediate rainfall is challenging, with fire’s role in limiting tree cover particularly controversial. We use a novel Bayesian approach to provide observational constraints on the strength of the influence of humans, fire, rainfall...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2024-11-01
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| Series: | Communications Earth & Environment |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01869-8 |
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| author | Douglas I. Kelley France Gerard Ning Dong Chantelle Burton Arthur Argles Guangqi Li Rhys Whitley Toby R. Marthews Eddy Roberston Graham P. Weedon Gitta Lasslop Richard J. Ellis Ioannis Bistinas Elmar Veenendaal |
| author_facet | Douglas I. Kelley France Gerard Ning Dong Chantelle Burton Arthur Argles Guangqi Li Rhys Whitley Toby R. Marthews Eddy Roberston Graham P. Weedon Gitta Lasslop Richard J. Ellis Ioannis Bistinas Elmar Veenendaal |
| author_sort | Douglas I. Kelley |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Explaining tropical tree cover distribution in areas of intermediate rainfall is challenging, with fire’s role in limiting tree cover particularly controversial. We use a novel Bayesian approach to provide observational constraints on the strength of the influence of humans, fire, rainfall seasonality, heat stress, and wind throw on tropical tree cover. Rainfall has the largest relative impact on tree cover (11.6–39.6%), followed by direct human pressures (29.8–36.8%), heat stress (10.5–23.3%) and rainfall seasonality (6.3–22.8%). Fire has a smaller impact (0.2–3.2%) than other stresses, increasing to 0.3–5.2% when excluding human influence. However, we found a potential vulnerability of eastern Amazon and Indonesian forests to fire, with up to 2% forest loss for a 1% increase in burnt area. Our results suggest that vegetation models should focus on fire development for emerging fire regimes in tropical forests and revisit the linkages between rainfall, non-fire disturbances, land use and broad-scale vegetation distributions. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-614fa8f2f3d14ceaaaed5cb1491bf695 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2662-4435 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-11-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Communications Earth & Environment |
| spelling | doaj-art-614fa8f2f3d14ceaaaed5cb1491bf6952024-11-24T12:44:13ZengNature PortfolioCommunications Earth & Environment2662-44352024-11-015111510.1038/s43247-024-01869-8Fire, environmental and anthropogenic controls on pantropical tree coverDouglas I. Kelley0France Gerard1Ning Dong2Chantelle Burton3Arthur Argles4Guangqi Li5Rhys Whitley6Toby R. Marthews7Eddy Roberston8Graham P. Weedon9Gitta Lasslop10Richard J. Ellis11Ioannis Bistinas12Elmar Veenendaal13UK Centre for Ecology and HydrologyUK Centre for Ecology and HydrologyCollege of Resources and Environment, Huazhong Agricultural UniversityMet Office Hadley Centre for Climate Science and ServicesMet Office Hadley Centre for Climate Science and ServicesDepartment of Geography and Environmental Science, University of ReadingNatural Perils Pricing, Consumer Insurance, SuncorpUK Centre for Ecology and HydrologyMet Office Hadley Centre for Climate Science and ServicesMet Office, Joint Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Research (JCHMR), Crowmarsh GiffordSenckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research CentreUK Centre for Ecology and HydrologyCognizant Benelux BV, Paul van Vlissingenstraat 10Plant Ecology and Nature Conservation Group, Wageningen UniversityAbstract Explaining tropical tree cover distribution in areas of intermediate rainfall is challenging, with fire’s role in limiting tree cover particularly controversial. We use a novel Bayesian approach to provide observational constraints on the strength of the influence of humans, fire, rainfall seasonality, heat stress, and wind throw on tropical tree cover. Rainfall has the largest relative impact on tree cover (11.6–39.6%), followed by direct human pressures (29.8–36.8%), heat stress (10.5–23.3%) and rainfall seasonality (6.3–22.8%). Fire has a smaller impact (0.2–3.2%) than other stresses, increasing to 0.3–5.2% when excluding human influence. However, we found a potential vulnerability of eastern Amazon and Indonesian forests to fire, with up to 2% forest loss for a 1% increase in burnt area. Our results suggest that vegetation models should focus on fire development for emerging fire regimes in tropical forests and revisit the linkages between rainfall, non-fire disturbances, land use and broad-scale vegetation distributions.https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01869-8 |
| spellingShingle | Douglas I. Kelley France Gerard Ning Dong Chantelle Burton Arthur Argles Guangqi Li Rhys Whitley Toby R. Marthews Eddy Roberston Graham P. Weedon Gitta Lasslop Richard J. Ellis Ioannis Bistinas Elmar Veenendaal Fire, environmental and anthropogenic controls on pantropical tree cover Communications Earth & Environment |
| title | Fire, environmental and anthropogenic controls on pantropical tree cover |
| title_full | Fire, environmental and anthropogenic controls on pantropical tree cover |
| title_fullStr | Fire, environmental and anthropogenic controls on pantropical tree cover |
| title_full_unstemmed | Fire, environmental and anthropogenic controls on pantropical tree cover |
| title_short | Fire, environmental and anthropogenic controls on pantropical tree cover |
| title_sort | fire environmental and anthropogenic controls on pantropical tree cover |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01869-8 |
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