Fire, environmental and anthropogenic controls on pantropical tree cover

Abstract Explaining tropical tree cover distribution in areas of intermediate rainfall is challenging, with fire’s role in limiting tree cover particularly controversial. We use a novel Bayesian approach to provide observational constraints on the strength of the influence of humans, fire, rainfall...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Douglas I. Kelley, France Gerard, Ning Dong, Chantelle Burton, Arthur Argles, Guangqi Li, Rhys Whitley, Toby R. Marthews, Eddy Roberston, Graham P. Weedon, Gitta Lasslop, Richard J. Ellis, Ioannis Bistinas, Elmar Veenendaal
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Nature Portfolio 2024-11-01
Series:Communications Earth & Environment
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01869-8
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
_version_ 1846158169158451200
author Douglas I. Kelley
France Gerard
Ning Dong
Chantelle Burton
Arthur Argles
Guangqi Li
Rhys Whitley
Toby R. Marthews
Eddy Roberston
Graham P. Weedon
Gitta Lasslop
Richard J. Ellis
Ioannis Bistinas
Elmar Veenendaal
author_facet Douglas I. Kelley
France Gerard
Ning Dong
Chantelle Burton
Arthur Argles
Guangqi Li
Rhys Whitley
Toby R. Marthews
Eddy Roberston
Graham P. Weedon
Gitta Lasslop
Richard J. Ellis
Ioannis Bistinas
Elmar Veenendaal
author_sort Douglas I. Kelley
collection DOAJ
description Abstract Explaining tropical tree cover distribution in areas of intermediate rainfall is challenging, with fire’s role in limiting tree cover particularly controversial. We use a novel Bayesian approach to provide observational constraints on the strength of the influence of humans, fire, rainfall seasonality, heat stress, and wind throw on tropical tree cover. Rainfall has the largest relative impact on tree cover (11.6–39.6%), followed by direct human pressures (29.8–36.8%), heat stress (10.5–23.3%) and rainfall seasonality (6.3–22.8%). Fire has a smaller impact (0.2–3.2%) than other stresses, increasing to 0.3–5.2% when excluding human influence. However, we found a potential vulnerability of eastern Amazon and Indonesian forests to fire, with up to 2% forest loss for a 1% increase in burnt area. Our results suggest that vegetation models should focus on fire development for emerging fire regimes in tropical forests and revisit the linkages between rainfall, non-fire disturbances, land use and broad-scale vegetation distributions.
format Article
id doaj-art-614fa8f2f3d14ceaaaed5cb1491bf695
institution Kabale University
issn 2662-4435
language English
publishDate 2024-11-01
publisher Nature Portfolio
record_format Article
series Communications Earth & Environment
spelling doaj-art-614fa8f2f3d14ceaaaed5cb1491bf6952024-11-24T12:44:13ZengNature PortfolioCommunications Earth & Environment2662-44352024-11-015111510.1038/s43247-024-01869-8Fire, environmental and anthropogenic controls on pantropical tree coverDouglas I. Kelley0France Gerard1Ning Dong2Chantelle Burton3Arthur Argles4Guangqi Li5Rhys Whitley6Toby R. Marthews7Eddy Roberston8Graham P. Weedon9Gitta Lasslop10Richard J. Ellis11Ioannis Bistinas12Elmar Veenendaal13UK Centre for Ecology and HydrologyUK Centre for Ecology and HydrologyCollege of Resources and Environment, Huazhong Agricultural UniversityMet Office Hadley Centre for Climate Science and ServicesMet Office Hadley Centre for Climate Science and ServicesDepartment of Geography and Environmental Science, University of ReadingNatural Perils Pricing, Consumer Insurance, SuncorpUK Centre for Ecology and HydrologyMet Office Hadley Centre for Climate Science and ServicesMet Office, Joint Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Research (JCHMR), Crowmarsh GiffordSenckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research CentreUK Centre for Ecology and HydrologyCognizant Benelux BV, Paul van Vlissingenstraat 10Plant Ecology and Nature Conservation Group, Wageningen UniversityAbstract Explaining tropical tree cover distribution in areas of intermediate rainfall is challenging, with fire’s role in limiting tree cover particularly controversial. We use a novel Bayesian approach to provide observational constraints on the strength of the influence of humans, fire, rainfall seasonality, heat stress, and wind throw on tropical tree cover. Rainfall has the largest relative impact on tree cover (11.6–39.6%), followed by direct human pressures (29.8–36.8%), heat stress (10.5–23.3%) and rainfall seasonality (6.3–22.8%). Fire has a smaller impact (0.2–3.2%) than other stresses, increasing to 0.3–5.2% when excluding human influence. However, we found a potential vulnerability of eastern Amazon and Indonesian forests to fire, with up to 2% forest loss for a 1% increase in burnt area. Our results suggest that vegetation models should focus on fire development for emerging fire regimes in tropical forests and revisit the linkages between rainfall, non-fire disturbances, land use and broad-scale vegetation distributions.https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01869-8
spellingShingle Douglas I. Kelley
France Gerard
Ning Dong
Chantelle Burton
Arthur Argles
Guangqi Li
Rhys Whitley
Toby R. Marthews
Eddy Roberston
Graham P. Weedon
Gitta Lasslop
Richard J. Ellis
Ioannis Bistinas
Elmar Veenendaal
Fire, environmental and anthropogenic controls on pantropical tree cover
Communications Earth & Environment
title Fire, environmental and anthropogenic controls on pantropical tree cover
title_full Fire, environmental and anthropogenic controls on pantropical tree cover
title_fullStr Fire, environmental and anthropogenic controls on pantropical tree cover
title_full_unstemmed Fire, environmental and anthropogenic controls on pantropical tree cover
title_short Fire, environmental and anthropogenic controls on pantropical tree cover
title_sort fire environmental and anthropogenic controls on pantropical tree cover
url https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01869-8
work_keys_str_mv AT douglasikelley fireenvironmentalandanthropogeniccontrolsonpantropicaltreecover
AT francegerard fireenvironmentalandanthropogeniccontrolsonpantropicaltreecover
AT ningdong fireenvironmentalandanthropogeniccontrolsonpantropicaltreecover
AT chantelleburton fireenvironmentalandanthropogeniccontrolsonpantropicaltreecover
AT arthurargles fireenvironmentalandanthropogeniccontrolsonpantropicaltreecover
AT guangqili fireenvironmentalandanthropogeniccontrolsonpantropicaltreecover
AT rhyswhitley fireenvironmentalandanthropogeniccontrolsonpantropicaltreecover
AT tobyrmarthews fireenvironmentalandanthropogeniccontrolsonpantropicaltreecover
AT eddyroberston fireenvironmentalandanthropogeniccontrolsonpantropicaltreecover
AT grahampweedon fireenvironmentalandanthropogeniccontrolsonpantropicaltreecover
AT gittalasslop fireenvironmentalandanthropogeniccontrolsonpantropicaltreecover
AT richardjellis fireenvironmentalandanthropogeniccontrolsonpantropicaltreecover
AT ioannisbistinas fireenvironmentalandanthropogeniccontrolsonpantropicaltreecover
AT elmarveenendaal fireenvironmentalandanthropogeniccontrolsonpantropicaltreecover