Modelling mixed crop-livestock systems and climate impact assessment in sub-Saharan Africa
Abstract Climate change significantly challenges smallholder mixed crop-livestock (MCL) systems in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), affecting food and feed production. This study enhances the SIMPLACE modeling framework by incorporating crop-vegetation-livestock models, which contribute to the development...
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Nature Portfolio
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Scientific Reports |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-81986-8 |
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| author | Amit Kumar Srivastava Jaber Rahimi Karam Alsafadi Murilo Vianna Andreas Enders Wenzhi Zheng Alparslan Demircan Mame Diarra Bousso Dieng Seyni Salack Babacar Faye Manmeet Singh Krishnagopal Halder Frank Ewert Thomas Gaiser |
| author_facet | Amit Kumar Srivastava Jaber Rahimi Karam Alsafadi Murilo Vianna Andreas Enders Wenzhi Zheng Alparslan Demircan Mame Diarra Bousso Dieng Seyni Salack Babacar Faye Manmeet Singh Krishnagopal Halder Frank Ewert Thomas Gaiser |
| author_sort | Amit Kumar Srivastava |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Climate change significantly challenges smallholder mixed crop-livestock (MCL) systems in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), affecting food and feed production. This study enhances the SIMPLACE modeling framework by incorporating crop-vegetation-livestock models, which contribute to the development of sustainable agricultural practices in response to climate change. Applying such a framework in a domain in West Africa (786,500 km2) allowed us to estimate the changes in crop (Maize, Millet, and Sorghum) yield, grass biomass, livestock numbers, and greenhouse gas emission in response to future climate scenarios. We demonstrate that this framework accurately estimated the key components of the domain for the past (1981–2005) and enables us to project their future changes using dynamically downscaled Global Circulation Model (GCM) projections (2020–2050). The results demonstrate that in the future, the northern part of the study area will likely experience a significant decline in crop biomass (up to -56%) and grass biomass (up to -57%) production leading to a decrease in livestock numbers (up to -43%). Consequently, this will impact total emissions (up to -47% CH4) and decrease of -41% in milk production, and − 47% in meat production concentrated in the Sahelian zone. Whereas, in pockets of the Sudanian zone, an increase in livestock population and CH4 emission of about + 24% has been estimated, indicating that variability in climate change impact is amplifying with no consistent pattern evident across the study domain. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-614390722b7b42859180d8e03bd85b54 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj-art-614390722b7b42859180d8e03bd85b542025-01-12T12:21:27ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222025-01-0115111810.1038/s41598-024-81986-8Modelling mixed crop-livestock systems and climate impact assessment in sub-Saharan AfricaAmit Kumar Srivastava0Jaber Rahimi1Karam Alsafadi2Murilo Vianna3Andreas Enders4Wenzhi Zheng5Alparslan Demircan6Mame Diarra Bousso Dieng7Seyni Salack8Babacar Faye9Manmeet Singh10Krishnagopal Halder11Frank Ewert12Thomas Gaiser13Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation, University of BonnKarlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Institute of Meteorology and Climate research (IMK-IFU)Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science, College of the Environment and Ecology, Xiamen UniversityInstitute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation, University of BonnInstitute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation, University of BonnDepartment of Irrigation and Drainage Engineering, The School of Water Resource and Hydropower, Wuhan UniversityInstitute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation, University of BonnKarlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Institute of Meteorology and Climate research (IMK-IFU)WASCAL Competence Center (CoC)Université du Sine Saloum El Hadj Ibrahima NIASSIndian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Ministry of Earth SciencesLeibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF)Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation, University of BonnInstitute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation, University of BonnAbstract Climate change significantly challenges smallholder mixed crop-livestock (MCL) systems in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), affecting food and feed production. This study enhances the SIMPLACE modeling framework by incorporating crop-vegetation-livestock models, which contribute to the development of sustainable agricultural practices in response to climate change. Applying such a framework in a domain in West Africa (786,500 km2) allowed us to estimate the changes in crop (Maize, Millet, and Sorghum) yield, grass biomass, livestock numbers, and greenhouse gas emission in response to future climate scenarios. We demonstrate that this framework accurately estimated the key components of the domain for the past (1981–2005) and enables us to project their future changes using dynamically downscaled Global Circulation Model (GCM) projections (2020–2050). The results demonstrate that in the future, the northern part of the study area will likely experience a significant decline in crop biomass (up to -56%) and grass biomass (up to -57%) production leading to a decrease in livestock numbers (up to -43%). Consequently, this will impact total emissions (up to -47% CH4) and decrease of -41% in milk production, and − 47% in meat production concentrated in the Sahelian zone. Whereas, in pockets of the Sudanian zone, an increase in livestock population and CH4 emission of about + 24% has been estimated, indicating that variability in climate change impact is amplifying with no consistent pattern evident across the study domain.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-81986-8 |
| spellingShingle | Amit Kumar Srivastava Jaber Rahimi Karam Alsafadi Murilo Vianna Andreas Enders Wenzhi Zheng Alparslan Demircan Mame Diarra Bousso Dieng Seyni Salack Babacar Faye Manmeet Singh Krishnagopal Halder Frank Ewert Thomas Gaiser Modelling mixed crop-livestock systems and climate impact assessment in sub-Saharan Africa Scientific Reports |
| title | Modelling mixed crop-livestock systems and climate impact assessment in sub-Saharan Africa |
| title_full | Modelling mixed crop-livestock systems and climate impact assessment in sub-Saharan Africa |
| title_fullStr | Modelling mixed crop-livestock systems and climate impact assessment in sub-Saharan Africa |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modelling mixed crop-livestock systems and climate impact assessment in sub-Saharan Africa |
| title_short | Modelling mixed crop-livestock systems and climate impact assessment in sub-Saharan Africa |
| title_sort | modelling mixed crop livestock systems and climate impact assessment in sub saharan africa |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-81986-8 |
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