Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting postoperative fever after endoscopic submucosal dissection for colorectal lesions
Abstract Fever is a complication after colorectal endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD). The objective of this study was to explore the incidence and risk factors of fever after colorectal ESD and establish a predictive nomogram model. This retrospective analysis encompassed patients with colorecta...
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Nature Portfolio
2025-01-01
|
| Series: | Scientific Reports |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-85188-8 |
| Tags: |
Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
|
| _version_ | 1841559735853121536 |
|---|---|
| author | Jiayu Qiu Yanhong Xia Yanxia Zhang Qingping Ouyang Liping Wang Ruiying Ding Xu Shu Xiaolin Pan |
| author_facet | Jiayu Qiu Yanhong Xia Yanxia Zhang Qingping Ouyang Liping Wang Ruiying Ding Xu Shu Xiaolin Pan |
| author_sort | Jiayu Qiu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Fever is a complication after colorectal endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD). The objective of this study was to explore the incidence and risk factors of fever after colorectal ESD and establish a predictive nomogram model. This retrospective analysis encompassed patients with colorectal lesions who underwent ESD between June 2008 and December 2021 in our center. Multivariate analyses were performed to identify the independent risk factors of fever after colorectal ESD based on univariate analysis, and derived predictive nomogram model was constructed. The performance of nomogram model was evaluated through the receiver operating characteristic curve, calibration curve, decision curve analysis (DCA) and clinical impact curve (CIC). Among the 1096 enrolled patients with colorectal lesions, fever after colorectal ESD occurred in 204 (18.6%) patients. Multivariate logistic regression revealed that tumor size (P < 0.001), ESD procedure time > 30 min (P < 0.001), injury to muscle layer (P < 0.001) and intraoperative perforation (P = 0.046) were estimated to be independent risk factors of fever after colorectal ESD. A predictive nomogram model, incorporating these four predictors, were established and performed well in both training and validation groups. Both DCA and CIC showed this nomogram model had a good potential for clinical practicability. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-5f4b30f10d4a42d3b0edf70364b9542e |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj-art-5f4b30f10d4a42d3b0edf70364b9542e2025-01-05T12:15:47ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222025-01-0115111210.1038/s41598-025-85188-8Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting postoperative fever after endoscopic submucosal dissection for colorectal lesionsJiayu Qiu0Yanhong Xia1Yanxia Zhang2Qingping Ouyang3Liping Wang4Ruiying Ding5Xu Shu6Xiaolin Pan7Department of Gastroenterology, Jiangxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Digestive Diseases, Jiangxi Clinical Research Center for Gastroenterology, Digestive Disease Hospital, The First Affiliated Hospital, Jiangxi Medical College, Nanchang UniversityDepartment of Gastroenterology, Jiangxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Digestive Diseases, Jiangxi Clinical Research Center for Gastroenterology, Digestive Disease Hospital, The First Affiliated Hospital, Jiangxi Medical College, Nanchang UniversityDepartment of Gastroenterology, Jiangxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Digestive Diseases, Jiangxi Clinical Research Center for Gastroenterology, Digestive Disease Hospital, The First Affiliated Hospital, Jiangxi Medical College, Nanchang UniversityDepartment of Gastroenterology, Jiangxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Digestive Diseases, Jiangxi Clinical Research Center for Gastroenterology, Digestive Disease Hospital, The First Affiliated Hospital, Jiangxi Medical College, Nanchang UniversityDepartment of Gastroenterology, Jiangxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Digestive Diseases, Jiangxi Clinical Research Center for Gastroenterology, Digestive Disease Hospital, The First Affiliated Hospital, Jiangxi Medical College, Nanchang UniversityDepartment of Gastroenterology, Jiangxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Digestive Diseases, Jiangxi Clinical Research Center for Gastroenterology, Digestive Disease Hospital, The First Affiliated Hospital, Jiangxi Medical College, Nanchang UniversityDepartment of Gastroenterology, Jiangxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Digestive Diseases, Jiangxi Clinical Research Center for Gastroenterology, Digestive Disease Hospital, The First Affiliated Hospital, Jiangxi Medical College, Nanchang UniversityDepartment of Gastroenterology, Jiangxi Provincial Key Laboratory of Digestive Diseases, Jiangxi Clinical Research Center for Gastroenterology, Digestive Disease Hospital, The First Affiliated Hospital, Jiangxi Medical College, Nanchang UniversityAbstract Fever is a complication after colorectal endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD). The objective of this study was to explore the incidence and risk factors of fever after colorectal ESD and establish a predictive nomogram model. This retrospective analysis encompassed patients with colorectal lesions who underwent ESD between June 2008 and December 2021 in our center. Multivariate analyses were performed to identify the independent risk factors of fever after colorectal ESD based on univariate analysis, and derived predictive nomogram model was constructed. The performance of nomogram model was evaluated through the receiver operating characteristic curve, calibration curve, decision curve analysis (DCA) and clinical impact curve (CIC). Among the 1096 enrolled patients with colorectal lesions, fever after colorectal ESD occurred in 204 (18.6%) patients. Multivariate logistic regression revealed that tumor size (P < 0.001), ESD procedure time > 30 min (P < 0.001), injury to muscle layer (P < 0.001) and intraoperative perforation (P = 0.046) were estimated to be independent risk factors of fever after colorectal ESD. A predictive nomogram model, incorporating these four predictors, were established and performed well in both training and validation groups. Both DCA and CIC showed this nomogram model had a good potential for clinical practicability.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-85188-8FeverColorectal lesionEndoscopic submucosal dissectionRisk factorNomogram |
| spellingShingle | Jiayu Qiu Yanhong Xia Yanxia Zhang Qingping Ouyang Liping Wang Ruiying Ding Xu Shu Xiaolin Pan Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting postoperative fever after endoscopic submucosal dissection for colorectal lesions Scientific Reports Fever Colorectal lesion Endoscopic submucosal dissection Risk factor Nomogram |
| title | Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting postoperative fever after endoscopic submucosal dissection for colorectal lesions |
| title_full | Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting postoperative fever after endoscopic submucosal dissection for colorectal lesions |
| title_fullStr | Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting postoperative fever after endoscopic submucosal dissection for colorectal lesions |
| title_full_unstemmed | Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting postoperative fever after endoscopic submucosal dissection for colorectal lesions |
| title_short | Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting postoperative fever after endoscopic submucosal dissection for colorectal lesions |
| title_sort | development and validation of a nomogram for predicting postoperative fever after endoscopic submucosal dissection for colorectal lesions |
| topic | Fever Colorectal lesion Endoscopic submucosal dissection Risk factor Nomogram |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-85188-8 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT jiayuqiu developmentandvalidationofanomogramforpredictingpostoperativefeverafterendoscopicsubmucosaldissectionforcolorectallesions AT yanhongxia developmentandvalidationofanomogramforpredictingpostoperativefeverafterendoscopicsubmucosaldissectionforcolorectallesions AT yanxiazhang developmentandvalidationofanomogramforpredictingpostoperativefeverafterendoscopicsubmucosaldissectionforcolorectallesions AT qingpingouyang developmentandvalidationofanomogramforpredictingpostoperativefeverafterendoscopicsubmucosaldissectionforcolorectallesions AT lipingwang developmentandvalidationofanomogramforpredictingpostoperativefeverafterendoscopicsubmucosaldissectionforcolorectallesions AT ruiyingding developmentandvalidationofanomogramforpredictingpostoperativefeverafterendoscopicsubmucosaldissectionforcolorectallesions AT xushu developmentandvalidationofanomogramforpredictingpostoperativefeverafterendoscopicsubmucosaldissectionforcolorectallesions AT xiaolinpan developmentandvalidationofanomogramforpredictingpostoperativefeverafterendoscopicsubmucosaldissectionforcolorectallesions |