Assessing spatial soil erosion under climate change using SWAT model in a semi-arid watershed of northeastern Tunisia
This study assesses the impact of climate change on streamflow and soil erosion dynamics in the Wadi Rmel watershed, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The model achieved an NSE of 0.61 and R ^2 of 0.66 during calibration and NSE of 0.83 and R ^2 of 0.8...
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IOP Publishing
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Communications |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/adfb25 |
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| author | Fathia Jarray Taoufik Hermassi Haykel Sellami Mohamed Ali Ben Abdallah Mohamed Mechergui |
| author_facet | Fathia Jarray Taoufik Hermassi Haykel Sellami Mohamed Ali Ben Abdallah Mohamed Mechergui |
| author_sort | Fathia Jarray |
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| description | This study assesses the impact of climate change on streamflow and soil erosion dynamics in the Wadi Rmel watershed, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The model achieved an NSE of 0.61 and R ^2 of 0.66 during calibration and NSE of 0.83 and R ^2 of 0.85 during validation phase. Climate projections from EURO-CORDEX models were analyzed across three timeframes: short-(2021–2044), medium-(2045–2069), and long-term (2070–2100). Results show decreasing precipitation across all scenarios, with reductions below 10% in the short term and up to 40% in the long term. For the long term, maximum temperature is predicted to increase by 1.5–5.2 °C across all RCP8.5 scenarios. Streamflow is expected to decline from a baseline average of 0.27 m ^3 /s, dropping to 0.21m ^3 /s in the short term, with further reductions over time. The impact of climate change on soil erosion exhibits spatio-temporal variability, with reductions across sub-basins, influenced by factors such as vegetation cover and anthropogenic factors. While erosion rates are projected to decline in most areas, sub-basins with minimal vegetation cover, especially in the southwestern region, remain highly vulnerable. The highest erosion reductions are observed in central and northeastern sub-basins, linked to better vegetation and conservation measures. These findings reveal key gaps in land management and opportunities to strengthen resilience against future water challenges in semi-arid regions. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-5e20f125a99c4162baf13fe64035e7c7 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2515-7620 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Communications |
| spelling | doaj-art-5e20f125a99c4162baf13fe64035e7c72025-08-26T02:49:27ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Communications2515-76202025-01-017808501810.1088/2515-7620/adfb25Assessing spatial soil erosion under climate change using SWAT model in a semi-arid watershed of northeastern TunisiaFathia Jarray0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7507-6793Taoufik Hermassi1https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8782-6192Haykel Sellami2https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9152-3015Mohamed Ali Ben Abdallah3Mohamed Mechergui4https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2863-9458Laboratory of Rural Engineering, National Research Institute of Rural Engineering, Water and Forests (INRGREF) , Rue Hédi El Karray El Menzah IV-BP N° 10, Ariana 2080, TunisiaLaboratory of Rural Engineering, National Research Institute of Rural Engineering, Water and Forests (INRGREF) , Rue Hédi El Karray El Menzah IV-BP N° 10, Ariana 2080, TunisiaCentre for Water Research and Technology EcoPark Borj Cedria , PO Box 273 8020, Soliman, TunisiaLaboratory of Rural Engineering, National Research Institute of Rural Engineering, Water and Forests (INRGREF) , Rue Hédi El Karray El Menzah IV-BP N° 10, Ariana 2080, TunisiaDepartment of Rural, Water and Forest Engineering, National Institute of Agronomy of Tunisia (INAT) , 43, Avenue Charles Nicolle, Tunis 1082, TunisiaThis study assesses the impact of climate change on streamflow and soil erosion dynamics in the Wadi Rmel watershed, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool model under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The model achieved an NSE of 0.61 and R ^2 of 0.66 during calibration and NSE of 0.83 and R ^2 of 0.85 during validation phase. Climate projections from EURO-CORDEX models were analyzed across three timeframes: short-(2021–2044), medium-(2045–2069), and long-term (2070–2100). Results show decreasing precipitation across all scenarios, with reductions below 10% in the short term and up to 40% in the long term. For the long term, maximum temperature is predicted to increase by 1.5–5.2 °C across all RCP8.5 scenarios. Streamflow is expected to decline from a baseline average of 0.27 m ^3 /s, dropping to 0.21m ^3 /s in the short term, with further reductions over time. The impact of climate change on soil erosion exhibits spatio-temporal variability, with reductions across sub-basins, influenced by factors such as vegetation cover and anthropogenic factors. While erosion rates are projected to decline in most areas, sub-basins with minimal vegetation cover, especially in the southwestern region, remain highly vulnerable. The highest erosion reductions are observed in central and northeastern sub-basins, linked to better vegetation and conservation measures. These findings reveal key gaps in land management and opportunities to strengthen resilience against future water challenges in semi-arid regions.https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/adfb25Climate changeSWAT modelSoil erosionStreamflowRCP scenarios |
| spellingShingle | Fathia Jarray Taoufik Hermassi Haykel Sellami Mohamed Ali Ben Abdallah Mohamed Mechergui Assessing spatial soil erosion under climate change using SWAT model in a semi-arid watershed of northeastern Tunisia Environmental Research Communications Climate change SWAT model Soil erosion Streamflow RCP scenarios |
| title | Assessing spatial soil erosion under climate change using SWAT model in a semi-arid watershed of northeastern Tunisia |
| title_full | Assessing spatial soil erosion under climate change using SWAT model in a semi-arid watershed of northeastern Tunisia |
| title_fullStr | Assessing spatial soil erosion under climate change using SWAT model in a semi-arid watershed of northeastern Tunisia |
| title_full_unstemmed | Assessing spatial soil erosion under climate change using SWAT model in a semi-arid watershed of northeastern Tunisia |
| title_short | Assessing spatial soil erosion under climate change using SWAT model in a semi-arid watershed of northeastern Tunisia |
| title_sort | assessing spatial soil erosion under climate change using swat model in a semi arid watershed of northeastern tunisia |
| topic | Climate change SWAT model Soil erosion Streamflow RCP scenarios |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/adfb25 |
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