Determinants of China’s GDP Growth: An Empirical Analysis of Macroeconomic Variable
This study examines the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI), trade, and various macroeconomic factors on GDP growth in China over the period 1982–2022. By Employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, the research investigates the dynamic interplay between GDP growth and fifteen i...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | Russian |
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Government of the Russian Federation, Financial University
2025-03-01
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| Series: | Управленческие науки |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://managementscience.fa.ru/jour/article/view/618 |
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| author | I. Ali A. Jonas |
| author_facet | I. Ali A. Jonas |
| author_sort | I. Ali |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This study examines the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI), trade, and various macroeconomic factors on GDP growth in China over the period 1982–2022. By Employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, the research investigates the dynamic interplay between GDP growth and fifteen independent variables, including FDI, exports, trade, total debt, and real interest rates. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test confirms the stationarity of the data at first difference. The ARDL model results indicate significant long-term impacts of some variables, particularly the current account balance, exports, and merchandise trade. Short-run dynamics revealed that increased FDI and real interest rates positively affect GDP growth, while increased debt, exports, and final consumption have negative effects. The ARDL bounds test confirms a long-run relationship among the variables. Diagnostic checks show no issues with normality, heteroskedasticity, or serial correlation. This comprehensive analysis provides valuable evidence for policymakers to formulate effective economic policies, promoting sustained growth and stability in China’s rapidly evolving economy. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-5c7b4d97aaf04f438045ecdfd08ca93b |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2304-022X 2618-9941 |
| language | Russian |
| publishDate | 2025-03-01 |
| publisher | Government of the Russian Federation, Financial University |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Управленческие науки |
| spelling | doaj-art-5c7b4d97aaf04f438045ecdfd08ca93b2025-08-20T03:42:51ZrusGovernment of the Russian Federation, Financial UniversityУправленческие науки2304-022X2618-99412025-03-01151203510.26794/2304-022X-2025-15-1-20-35383Determinants of China’s GDP Growth: An Empirical Analysis of Macroeconomic VariableI. Ali0A. Jonas1HSE UniversityIndonesian International Islamic UniversityThis study examines the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI), trade, and various macroeconomic factors on GDP growth in China over the period 1982–2022. By Employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model, the research investigates the dynamic interplay between GDP growth and fifteen independent variables, including FDI, exports, trade, total debt, and real interest rates. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test confirms the stationarity of the data at first difference. The ARDL model results indicate significant long-term impacts of some variables, particularly the current account balance, exports, and merchandise trade. Short-run dynamics revealed that increased FDI and real interest rates positively affect GDP growth, while increased debt, exports, and final consumption have negative effects. The ARDL bounds test confirms a long-run relationship among the variables. Diagnostic checks show no issues with normality, heteroskedasticity, or serial correlation. This comprehensive analysis provides valuable evidence for policymakers to formulate effective economic policies, promoting sustained growth and stability in China’s rapidly evolving economy.https://managementscience.fa.ru/jour/article/view/618gdp growthforeign direct investment (fdi)trademacroeconomic factorschinaardl modeleconomic policytime series analysis |
| spellingShingle | I. Ali A. Jonas Determinants of China’s GDP Growth: An Empirical Analysis of Macroeconomic Variable Управленческие науки gdp growth foreign direct investment (fdi) trade macroeconomic factors china ardl model economic policy time series analysis |
| title | Determinants of China’s GDP Growth: An Empirical Analysis of Macroeconomic Variable |
| title_full | Determinants of China’s GDP Growth: An Empirical Analysis of Macroeconomic Variable |
| title_fullStr | Determinants of China’s GDP Growth: An Empirical Analysis of Macroeconomic Variable |
| title_full_unstemmed | Determinants of China’s GDP Growth: An Empirical Analysis of Macroeconomic Variable |
| title_short | Determinants of China’s GDP Growth: An Empirical Analysis of Macroeconomic Variable |
| title_sort | determinants of china s gdp growth an empirical analysis of macroeconomic variable |
| topic | gdp growth foreign direct investment (fdi) trade macroeconomic factors china ardl model economic policy time series analysis |
| url | https://managementscience.fa.ru/jour/article/view/618 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT iali determinantsofchinasgdpgrowthanempiricalanalysisofmacroeconomicvariable AT ajonas determinantsofchinasgdpgrowthanempiricalanalysisofmacroeconomicvariable |