Estimating the impact of tax policy interventions on the projected number and prevalence of adults with type 2 diabetes in Germany between 2020 and 2040
Introduction As a population-wide intervention, it has been proposed to raise taxes on unhealthy products to prevent diseases such as type 2 diabetes. In this study, we aimed to estimate the effect of tax policy interventions in 2020 on the projected prevalence and number of people with type 2 diabe...
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| Format: | Article |
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BMJ Publishing Group
2021-03-01
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| Series: | BMJ Open Diabetes Research & Care |
| Online Access: | https://drc.bmj.com/content/9/1/e001813.full |
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| author | Ralph Brinks Annika Hoyer Rebecca Paprott Christin Heidemann Christa Scheidt-Nave Thaddäus Tönnies Esther Seidel-Jacobs |
| author_facet | Ralph Brinks Annika Hoyer Rebecca Paprott Christin Heidemann Christa Scheidt-Nave Thaddäus Tönnies Esther Seidel-Jacobs |
| author_sort | Ralph Brinks |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Introduction As a population-wide intervention, it has been proposed to raise taxes on unhealthy products to prevent diseases such as type 2 diabetes. In this study, we aimed to estimate the effect of tax policy interventions in 2020 on the projected prevalence and number of people with type 2 diabetes in the German adult population in 2040.Research design and methods We applied an illness-death model and the German Diabetes Risk Score (GDRS) to project the prevalence and number of adults with type 2 diabetes in Germany under a base case scenario and under a tax policy intervention scenario. For the base case scenario, we assumed constant age-specific incidence rates between 2020 and 2040. For the intervention scenario, we assumed a 50% price increase for sugar-sweetened beverages, tobacco and red meat products in the year 2020. Based on price elasticities, we estimated the impact on these risk factors alone and in combination, and calculated subsequent reductions in the age-specific and sex-specific GDRS. These reductions were used to determine reductions in the incidence rate and prevalence using a partial differential equation.Results Compared with the base case scenario, combined tax interventions in 2020 resulted in a 0.95 percentage point decrease in the prevalence of type 2 diabetes (16.2% vs 17.1%), which corresponds to 640 000 fewer prevalent cases of type 2 diabetes and a relative reduction by 6%.Conclusions Taxation of sugar-sweetened beverages, tobacco products and red meat by 50% modestly lowered the projected number and prevalence of adults with type 2 diabetes in Germany in 2040. Raising taxes on unhealthy products as a stand-alone measure may not be enough to attenuate the future rise of type 2 diabetes. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-5c54fac2f56740f98bd0148e96c1abfd |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2052-4897 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2021-03-01 |
| publisher | BMJ Publishing Group |
| record_format | Article |
| series | BMJ Open Diabetes Research & Care |
| spelling | doaj-art-5c54fac2f56740f98bd0148e96c1abfd2024-12-12T06:20:09ZengBMJ Publishing GroupBMJ Open Diabetes Research & Care2052-48972021-03-019110.1136/bmjdrc-2020-001813Estimating the impact of tax policy interventions on the projected number and prevalence of adults with type 2 diabetes in Germany between 2020 and 2040Ralph Brinks0Annika Hoyer1Rebecca Paprott2Christin Heidemann3Christa Scheidt-Nave4Thaddäus Tönnies5Esther Seidel-Jacobs6Policlinic and Hiller Research Unit for Rheumatology, Medical Faculty and University Hospital Düsseldorf, Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf, GermanyDepartment of Statistics, Ludwig Maximilians University, Munich, GermanyDepartment of Epidemiology and Health Monitoring, Robert Koch Institute, Berlin, GermanyDepartment of Epidemiology and Health Monitoring, Robert Koch Institute, Berlin, Germany3 Department of Epidemiology and Health Monitoring, Robert Koch Institute, Berlin, GermanyInstitute for Biometrics and Epidemiology, German Diabetes Center (DDZ), Leibniz Center for Diabetes Research at Heinrich Heine University, Düsseldorf, GermanyInstitute for Biometrics and Epidemiology, German Diabetes Center (DDZ), Leibniz Center for Diabetes Research at Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf, GermanyIntroduction As a population-wide intervention, it has been proposed to raise taxes on unhealthy products to prevent diseases such as type 2 diabetes. In this study, we aimed to estimate the effect of tax policy interventions in 2020 on the projected prevalence and number of people with type 2 diabetes in the German adult population in 2040.Research design and methods We applied an illness-death model and the German Diabetes Risk Score (GDRS) to project the prevalence and number of adults with type 2 diabetes in Germany under a base case scenario and under a tax policy intervention scenario. For the base case scenario, we assumed constant age-specific incidence rates between 2020 and 2040. For the intervention scenario, we assumed a 50% price increase for sugar-sweetened beverages, tobacco and red meat products in the year 2020. Based on price elasticities, we estimated the impact on these risk factors alone and in combination, and calculated subsequent reductions in the age-specific and sex-specific GDRS. These reductions were used to determine reductions in the incidence rate and prevalence using a partial differential equation.Results Compared with the base case scenario, combined tax interventions in 2020 resulted in a 0.95 percentage point decrease in the prevalence of type 2 diabetes (16.2% vs 17.1%), which corresponds to 640 000 fewer prevalent cases of type 2 diabetes and a relative reduction by 6%.Conclusions Taxation of sugar-sweetened beverages, tobacco products and red meat by 50% modestly lowered the projected number and prevalence of adults with type 2 diabetes in Germany in 2040. Raising taxes on unhealthy products as a stand-alone measure may not be enough to attenuate the future rise of type 2 diabetes.https://drc.bmj.com/content/9/1/e001813.full |
| spellingShingle | Ralph Brinks Annika Hoyer Rebecca Paprott Christin Heidemann Christa Scheidt-Nave Thaddäus Tönnies Esther Seidel-Jacobs Estimating the impact of tax policy interventions on the projected number and prevalence of adults with type 2 diabetes in Germany between 2020 and 2040 BMJ Open Diabetes Research & Care |
| title | Estimating the impact of tax policy interventions on the projected number and prevalence of adults with type 2 diabetes in Germany between 2020 and 2040 |
| title_full | Estimating the impact of tax policy interventions on the projected number and prevalence of adults with type 2 diabetes in Germany between 2020 and 2040 |
| title_fullStr | Estimating the impact of tax policy interventions on the projected number and prevalence of adults with type 2 diabetes in Germany between 2020 and 2040 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Estimating the impact of tax policy interventions on the projected number and prevalence of adults with type 2 diabetes in Germany between 2020 and 2040 |
| title_short | Estimating the impact of tax policy interventions on the projected number and prevalence of adults with type 2 diabetes in Germany between 2020 and 2040 |
| title_sort | estimating the impact of tax policy interventions on the projected number and prevalence of adults with type 2 diabetes in germany between 2020 and 2040 |
| url | https://drc.bmj.com/content/9/1/e001813.full |
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