Research on Medium and Long-Term Runoff Forecast of Xijiang River in Dry Season Based on Statistical Model
Accurate medium and long-term runoff forecast is of great guiding significance to the development and utilization of water resources,allocation optimization,and water dispatch.Based on the three statistical models of mean generating function,periodic analysis,and multiple stepwise regression,this pa...
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Editorial Office of Pearl River
2022-01-01
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| Series: | Renmin Zhujiang |
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| Online Access: | http://www.renminzhujiang.cn/thesisDetails#10.3969/j.issn.1001-9235.2022.12.008 |
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| author | LAN Yuxi ZHANG Yin NONG Zhenchang WEI Yongjiang |
| author_facet | LAN Yuxi ZHANG Yin NONG Zhenchang WEI Yongjiang |
| author_sort | LAN Yuxi |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Accurate medium and long-term runoff forecast is of great guiding significance to the development and utilization of water resources,allocation optimization,and water dispatch.Based on the three statistical models of mean generating function,periodic analysis,and multiple stepwise regression,this paper studied the medium and long-term runoff forecast of the Longtan Reservoir in the upper reaches of the Xijiang River and the Wuzhou hydrological station in the lower reaches from October to March of the following year and during the entire dry season (six months,from October to March of the following year).The results show that the three models all present positive forecast results.In the calibration and verification periods,the average pass rate exceeds 75%,and the mean absolute percentage error is basically within 30%.The forecast accuracy of the mean generating function and the multiple stepwise regression is significantly higher than that of the periodic analysis,with smaller forecast errors in larger values.Multiple stepwise regression is more stable than the other two models.Furthermore,affected by the consistency of data,the forecast accuracy of the Longtan Reservoir is significantly higher than that of the Wuzhou hydrological station.On the whole,multiple stepwise regression has the optimal forecast effect in the Xijiang River Basin.In addition,it can maintain high forecast accuracy at all levels and stages and provide a valuable reference for water dispatch decisions in the basin.In the future,multi-model fusion can be used to further improve the forecast effect. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-5ba5a2d0fdc04d5a8d8979804c0fc897 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1001-9235 |
| language | zho |
| publishDate | 2022-01-01 |
| publisher | Editorial Office of Pearl River |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Renmin Zhujiang |
| spelling | doaj-art-5ba5a2d0fdc04d5a8d8979804c0fc8972025-01-15T02:25:34ZzhoEditorial Office of Pearl RiverRenmin Zhujiang1001-92352022-01-014347640648Research on Medium and Long-Term Runoff Forecast of Xijiang River in Dry Season Based on Statistical ModelLAN YuxiZHANG YinNONG ZhenchangWEI YongjiangAccurate medium and long-term runoff forecast is of great guiding significance to the development and utilization of water resources,allocation optimization,and water dispatch.Based on the three statistical models of mean generating function,periodic analysis,and multiple stepwise regression,this paper studied the medium and long-term runoff forecast of the Longtan Reservoir in the upper reaches of the Xijiang River and the Wuzhou hydrological station in the lower reaches from October to March of the following year and during the entire dry season (six months,from October to March of the following year).The results show that the three models all present positive forecast results.In the calibration and verification periods,the average pass rate exceeds 75%,and the mean absolute percentage error is basically within 30%.The forecast accuracy of the mean generating function and the multiple stepwise regression is significantly higher than that of the periodic analysis,with smaller forecast errors in larger values.Multiple stepwise regression is more stable than the other two models.Furthermore,affected by the consistency of data,the forecast accuracy of the Longtan Reservoir is significantly higher than that of the Wuzhou hydrological station.On the whole,multiple stepwise regression has the optimal forecast effect in the Xijiang River Basin.In addition,it can maintain high forecast accuracy at all levels and stages and provide a valuable reference for water dispatch decisions in the basin.In the future,multi-model fusion can be used to further improve the forecast effect.http://www.renminzhujiang.cn/thesisDetails#10.3969/j.issn.1001-9235.2022.12.008mean generating functionperiodic analysismultiple stepwise regressionmedium and long-term runoff forecastXijiang River |
| spellingShingle | LAN Yuxi ZHANG Yin NONG Zhenchang WEI Yongjiang Research on Medium and Long-Term Runoff Forecast of Xijiang River in Dry Season Based on Statistical Model Renmin Zhujiang mean generating function periodic analysis multiple stepwise regression medium and long-term runoff forecast Xijiang River |
| title | Research on Medium and Long-Term Runoff Forecast of Xijiang River in Dry Season Based on Statistical Model |
| title_full | Research on Medium and Long-Term Runoff Forecast of Xijiang River in Dry Season Based on Statistical Model |
| title_fullStr | Research on Medium and Long-Term Runoff Forecast of Xijiang River in Dry Season Based on Statistical Model |
| title_full_unstemmed | Research on Medium and Long-Term Runoff Forecast of Xijiang River in Dry Season Based on Statistical Model |
| title_short | Research on Medium and Long-Term Runoff Forecast of Xijiang River in Dry Season Based on Statistical Model |
| title_sort | research on medium and long term runoff forecast of xijiang river in dry season based on statistical model |
| topic | mean generating function periodic analysis multiple stepwise regression medium and long-term runoff forecast Xijiang River |
| url | http://www.renminzhujiang.cn/thesisDetails#10.3969/j.issn.1001-9235.2022.12.008 |
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