Optimal COVID-19 vaccine prioritization by age depends critically on inter-group contacts and vaccination rates
The limited availability of COVID-19 vaccines has prompted extensive research on optimal vaccination strategies. Previous studies have considered various non-pharmaceutical interventions, vaccine efficacy and distribution strategies. In this work, we address the combined effects of inter-group conta...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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The Royal Society
2024-12-01
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| Series: | Royal Society Open Science |
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| Online Access: | https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsos.240753 |
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| author | Iker Atienza-Diez Gabriel Rodriguez-Maroto Saúl Ares Susanna Manrubia |
| author_facet | Iker Atienza-Diez Gabriel Rodriguez-Maroto Saúl Ares Susanna Manrubia |
| author_sort | Iker Atienza-Diez |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The limited availability of COVID-19 vaccines has prompted extensive research on optimal vaccination strategies. Previous studies have considered various non-pharmaceutical interventions, vaccine efficacy and distribution strategies. In this work, we address the combined effects of inter-group contacts and vaccination rates under contact reduction, analysing the Spanish population’s demographic and age group contact patterns and incorporating reinfection dynamics. We conduct an exhaustive analysis, evaluating 362 880 permutations of nine age groups across six vaccination rates and two distinct, empirically quantified scenarios for social contacts. Our results show that at intermediate-to-high vaccination rates with unrestricted social contacts, optimal age-based vaccination strategies only slightly deviate from older-to-younger prioritization, yielding marginal reductions in deaths and infections. However, when significant reductions in social contacts are enforced—similar to the lockdowns in 2020—there are substantial improvements, particularly at moderate vaccination rates. These restrictions lead to a transition where infection propagation is halted, a scenario that became achievable during the pandemic with the observed vaccination rates. Our findings emphasize the importance of combining appropriate social contact reductions with vaccination to optimize age-based vaccination strategies, underscoring the complex, nonlinear dynamics involved in pandemic dynamics and the necessity for tailored context-specific interventions. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-59a8e93696264cd8b65a33b2a47a73ac |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2054-5703 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-12-01 |
| publisher | The Royal Society |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Royal Society Open Science |
| spelling | doaj-art-59a8e93696264cd8b65a33b2a47a73ac2024-12-04T05:37:59ZengThe Royal SocietyRoyal Society Open Science2054-57032024-12-01111210.1098/rsos.240753Optimal COVID-19 vaccine prioritization by age depends critically on inter-group contacts and vaccination ratesIker Atienza-Diez0Gabriel Rodriguez-Maroto1Saúl Ares2Susanna Manrubia3Centro Nacional de Biotecnologia (CNB), CSIC, Grupo Interdisciplinar de Sistemas Complejos (GISC), Madrid, SpainCentro Nacional de Biotecnologia (CNB), CSIC, Grupo Interdisciplinar de Sistemas Complejos (GISC), Madrid, SpainCentro Nacional de Biotecnologia (CNB), CSIC, Grupo Interdisciplinar de Sistemas Complejos (GISC), Madrid, SpainCentro Nacional de Biotecnologia (CNB), CSIC, Grupo Interdisciplinar de Sistemas Complejos (GISC), Madrid, SpainThe limited availability of COVID-19 vaccines has prompted extensive research on optimal vaccination strategies. Previous studies have considered various non-pharmaceutical interventions, vaccine efficacy and distribution strategies. In this work, we address the combined effects of inter-group contacts and vaccination rates under contact reduction, analysing the Spanish population’s demographic and age group contact patterns and incorporating reinfection dynamics. We conduct an exhaustive analysis, evaluating 362 880 permutations of nine age groups across six vaccination rates and two distinct, empirically quantified scenarios for social contacts. Our results show that at intermediate-to-high vaccination rates with unrestricted social contacts, optimal age-based vaccination strategies only slightly deviate from older-to-younger prioritization, yielding marginal reductions in deaths and infections. However, when significant reductions in social contacts are enforced—similar to the lockdowns in 2020—there are substantial improvements, particularly at moderate vaccination rates. These restrictions lead to a transition where infection propagation is halted, a scenario that became achievable during the pandemic with the observed vaccination rates. Our findings emphasize the importance of combining appropriate social contact reductions with vaccination to optimize age-based vaccination strategies, underscoring the complex, nonlinear dynamics involved in pandemic dynamics and the necessity for tailored context-specific interventions.https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsos.240753compartmental modelcontact matrixSpanish demographic structureinhibition of epidemic propagationvaccine rollout |
| spellingShingle | Iker Atienza-Diez Gabriel Rodriguez-Maroto Saúl Ares Susanna Manrubia Optimal COVID-19 vaccine prioritization by age depends critically on inter-group contacts and vaccination rates Royal Society Open Science compartmental model contact matrix Spanish demographic structure inhibition of epidemic propagation vaccine rollout |
| title | Optimal COVID-19 vaccine prioritization by age depends critically on inter-group contacts and vaccination rates |
| title_full | Optimal COVID-19 vaccine prioritization by age depends critically on inter-group contacts and vaccination rates |
| title_fullStr | Optimal COVID-19 vaccine prioritization by age depends critically on inter-group contacts and vaccination rates |
| title_full_unstemmed | Optimal COVID-19 vaccine prioritization by age depends critically on inter-group contacts and vaccination rates |
| title_short | Optimal COVID-19 vaccine prioritization by age depends critically on inter-group contacts and vaccination rates |
| title_sort | optimal covid 19 vaccine prioritization by age depends critically on inter group contacts and vaccination rates |
| topic | compartmental model contact matrix Spanish demographic structure inhibition of epidemic propagation vaccine rollout |
| url | https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsos.240753 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT ikeratienzadiez optimalcovid19vaccineprioritizationbyagedependscriticallyonintergroupcontactsandvaccinationrates AT gabrielrodriguezmaroto optimalcovid19vaccineprioritizationbyagedependscriticallyonintergroupcontactsandvaccinationrates AT saulares optimalcovid19vaccineprioritizationbyagedependscriticallyonintergroupcontactsandvaccinationrates AT susannamanrubia optimalcovid19vaccineprioritizationbyagedependscriticallyonintergroupcontactsandvaccinationrates |