Morbidity of SARS-CoV-2 in the evolution to endemicity and in comparison with influenza
Abstract Background There are three possible SARS-CoV-2 post-pandemic scenarios: (i) ongoing severity, (ii) influenza-like severity, and (iii) a transition to an endemic disease with lesser morbidity similar to that of other human coronaviruses. Methods To assess a possible evolution of the pandemic...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2024-11-01
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| Series: | Communications Medicine |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43856-024-00633-5 |
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| author | Istvan Bartha Cyrus Maher Victor Lavrenko Yi-Pei Chen Qiqing Tao Julia di Iulio Keith Boundy Elizabeth Kinter Wendy Yeh Davide Corti Amalio Telenti |
| author_facet | Istvan Bartha Cyrus Maher Victor Lavrenko Yi-Pei Chen Qiqing Tao Julia di Iulio Keith Boundy Elizabeth Kinter Wendy Yeh Davide Corti Amalio Telenti |
| author_sort | Istvan Bartha |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background There are three possible SARS-CoV-2 post-pandemic scenarios: (i) ongoing severity, (ii) influenza-like severity, and (iii) a transition to an endemic disease with lesser morbidity similar to that of other human coronaviruses. Methods To assess a possible evolution of the pandemic under the three scenarios, we use data from the US National Covid Cohort Collaborative, CDC COVID-NET, and CDC Fluview and from the WastewaterSCAN Dashboard. We include influenza disease and treatment response as benchmark. The US National Covid Cohort Collaborative allows the quantification of viral-specific morbidity using electronic health records from 424,165 SARS-CoV-2 cases, 53,846 influenza cases, and 199,971 uninfected control subjects from 2021–2022. Evolution of hospitalization rates is estimated from the correlation between national SARS-CoV-2 and influenza hospitalization data and viral gene copies in wastewater. Results Our findings reveal that medically attended SARS-CoV-2 infections exhibit similar morbidity to influenza [indicative of scenario (ii)], but SARS-CoV-2 hospitalization rates are one order of magnitude lower than influenza when considering virus concentration in wastewater [indicative of scenario (iii)]. Moreover, SARS-CoV-2 displays a more favorable response to antiviral therapy. Conclusions Our analysis confirms a rapid decline in SARS-CoV-2 morbidity as it transitions to an endemic state. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-59547326727948ed8b19bba108d1eb4e |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2730-664X |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-11-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Communications Medicine |
| spelling | doaj-art-59547326727948ed8b19bba108d1eb4e2025-01-12T12:37:14ZengNature PortfolioCommunications Medicine2730-664X2024-11-01411910.1038/s43856-024-00633-5Morbidity of SARS-CoV-2 in the evolution to endemicity and in comparison with influenzaIstvan Bartha0Cyrus Maher1Victor Lavrenko2Yi-Pei Chen3Qiqing Tao4Julia di Iulio5Keith Boundy6Elizabeth Kinter7Wendy Yeh8Davide Corti9Amalio Telenti10Vir Biotechnology Inc.Vir Biotechnology Inc.Vir Biotechnology Inc.Vir Biotechnology Inc.Vir Biotechnology Inc.Vir Biotechnology Inc.Vir Biotechnology Inc.Vir Biotechnology Inc.Vir Biotechnology Inc.Vir Biotechnology Inc.Vir Biotechnology Inc.Abstract Background There are three possible SARS-CoV-2 post-pandemic scenarios: (i) ongoing severity, (ii) influenza-like severity, and (iii) a transition to an endemic disease with lesser morbidity similar to that of other human coronaviruses. Methods To assess a possible evolution of the pandemic under the three scenarios, we use data from the US National Covid Cohort Collaborative, CDC COVID-NET, and CDC Fluview and from the WastewaterSCAN Dashboard. We include influenza disease and treatment response as benchmark. The US National Covid Cohort Collaborative allows the quantification of viral-specific morbidity using electronic health records from 424,165 SARS-CoV-2 cases, 53,846 influenza cases, and 199,971 uninfected control subjects from 2021–2022. Evolution of hospitalization rates is estimated from the correlation between national SARS-CoV-2 and influenza hospitalization data and viral gene copies in wastewater. Results Our findings reveal that medically attended SARS-CoV-2 infections exhibit similar morbidity to influenza [indicative of scenario (ii)], but SARS-CoV-2 hospitalization rates are one order of magnitude lower than influenza when considering virus concentration in wastewater [indicative of scenario (iii)]. Moreover, SARS-CoV-2 displays a more favorable response to antiviral therapy. Conclusions Our analysis confirms a rapid decline in SARS-CoV-2 morbidity as it transitions to an endemic state.https://doi.org/10.1038/s43856-024-00633-5 |
| spellingShingle | Istvan Bartha Cyrus Maher Victor Lavrenko Yi-Pei Chen Qiqing Tao Julia di Iulio Keith Boundy Elizabeth Kinter Wendy Yeh Davide Corti Amalio Telenti Morbidity of SARS-CoV-2 in the evolution to endemicity and in comparison with influenza Communications Medicine |
| title | Morbidity of SARS-CoV-2 in the evolution to endemicity and in comparison with influenza |
| title_full | Morbidity of SARS-CoV-2 in the evolution to endemicity and in comparison with influenza |
| title_fullStr | Morbidity of SARS-CoV-2 in the evolution to endemicity and in comparison with influenza |
| title_full_unstemmed | Morbidity of SARS-CoV-2 in the evolution to endemicity and in comparison with influenza |
| title_short | Morbidity of SARS-CoV-2 in the evolution to endemicity and in comparison with influenza |
| title_sort | morbidity of sars cov 2 in the evolution to endemicity and in comparison with influenza |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43856-024-00633-5 |
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