Strategic vaccination responses to Chikungunya outbreaks in Rome: Insights from a dynamic transmission model.
<h4>Background</h4>Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) outbreaks, driven by the expanding habitat of the Aedes albopictus mosquito and global climate change, pose a significant threat to public health. Our study evaluates the effectiveness of emergency vaccination using a dynamic disease transmiss...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2024-12-01
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| Series: | PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0012713 |
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| author | Albertus Constantijn Sloof Martijn Boer Gerard T Vondeling Adrianne M de Roo Juan Carlos Jaramillo Maarten J Postma |
| author_facet | Albertus Constantijn Sloof Martijn Boer Gerard T Vondeling Adrianne M de Roo Juan Carlos Jaramillo Maarten J Postma |
| author_sort | Albertus Constantijn Sloof |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <h4>Background</h4>Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) outbreaks, driven by the expanding habitat of the Aedes albopictus mosquito and global climate change, pose a significant threat to public health. Our study evaluates the effectiveness of emergency vaccination using a dynamic disease transmission model for a potential large-scale outbreak in Rome, Italy.<h4>Methods</h4>The model incorporates a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) framework for human and mosquito populations, taking into account temperature-dependent mosquito lifecycle dynamics, human-mosquito interactions, and various vaccination scenarios.<h4>Findings</h4>Results indicate that emergency vaccination could significantly mitigate the impact of a CHIKV outbreak. Without vaccination, an outbreak is estimated to infect up to 6.21% of Rome's population, equating to approximately 170,762 individuals. Implementing rapid vaccination after detecting the virus in ten individuals and achieving 40% coverage could reduce infection rates by 82%, preventing 139,805 cases. Scenario and sensitivity analyses confirm that even with lower vaccination coverage rates, significant benefits are observed: at 10% coverage, the number of infections drops to 115,231, and at 20% coverage, it further reduces to 76,031. These scenarios indicate prevention of approximately 33% and 55% of infections, respectively.<h4>Conclusions</h4>The findings highlight the critical role of timely vaccination interventions in outbreak settings, demonstrating that even modest coverage levels can markedly decrease the spread of CHIKV. This study underscores the importance of preparedness, early detection and adaptive response capabilities to manage emerging infectious diseases in urban centres, advocating for strategic vaccine stockpiling and rapid deployment mechanisms to enhance public health outcomes. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-551330befa9c4e359abec40cedb37178 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1935-2727 1935-2735 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2024-12-01 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
| spelling | doaj-art-551330befa9c4e359abec40cedb371782025-01-10T05:32:25ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases1935-27271935-27352024-12-011812e001271310.1371/journal.pntd.0012713Strategic vaccination responses to Chikungunya outbreaks in Rome: Insights from a dynamic transmission model.Albertus Constantijn SloofMartijn BoerGerard T VondelingAdrianne M de RooJuan Carlos JaramilloMaarten J Postma<h4>Background</h4>Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) outbreaks, driven by the expanding habitat of the Aedes albopictus mosquito and global climate change, pose a significant threat to public health. Our study evaluates the effectiveness of emergency vaccination using a dynamic disease transmission model for a potential large-scale outbreak in Rome, Italy.<h4>Methods</h4>The model incorporates a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) framework for human and mosquito populations, taking into account temperature-dependent mosquito lifecycle dynamics, human-mosquito interactions, and various vaccination scenarios.<h4>Findings</h4>Results indicate that emergency vaccination could significantly mitigate the impact of a CHIKV outbreak. Without vaccination, an outbreak is estimated to infect up to 6.21% of Rome's population, equating to approximately 170,762 individuals. Implementing rapid vaccination after detecting the virus in ten individuals and achieving 40% coverage could reduce infection rates by 82%, preventing 139,805 cases. Scenario and sensitivity analyses confirm that even with lower vaccination coverage rates, significant benefits are observed: at 10% coverage, the number of infections drops to 115,231, and at 20% coverage, it further reduces to 76,031. These scenarios indicate prevention of approximately 33% and 55% of infections, respectively.<h4>Conclusions</h4>The findings highlight the critical role of timely vaccination interventions in outbreak settings, demonstrating that even modest coverage levels can markedly decrease the spread of CHIKV. This study underscores the importance of preparedness, early detection and adaptive response capabilities to manage emerging infectious diseases in urban centres, advocating for strategic vaccine stockpiling and rapid deployment mechanisms to enhance public health outcomes.https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0012713 |
| spellingShingle | Albertus Constantijn Sloof Martijn Boer Gerard T Vondeling Adrianne M de Roo Juan Carlos Jaramillo Maarten J Postma Strategic vaccination responses to Chikungunya outbreaks in Rome: Insights from a dynamic transmission model. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
| title | Strategic vaccination responses to Chikungunya outbreaks in Rome: Insights from a dynamic transmission model. |
| title_full | Strategic vaccination responses to Chikungunya outbreaks in Rome: Insights from a dynamic transmission model. |
| title_fullStr | Strategic vaccination responses to Chikungunya outbreaks in Rome: Insights from a dynamic transmission model. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Strategic vaccination responses to Chikungunya outbreaks in Rome: Insights from a dynamic transmission model. |
| title_short | Strategic vaccination responses to Chikungunya outbreaks in Rome: Insights from a dynamic transmission model. |
| title_sort | strategic vaccination responses to chikungunya outbreaks in rome insights from a dynamic transmission model |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0012713 |
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