Forward‐Looking Study of Solar Maximum Impact in 2025: Effects of Satellite Navigation Failure on Aviation Network Operation in the Greater Bay Area, China
Abstract Satellite navigation based on the Global Navigation Satellite System can provide aircraft with more precise guidance and increase flight efficiency. However, severe space weather events can cause satellite navigation failure due to the dramatic increase in total electron content and irregul...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2023-12-01
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| Series: | Space Weather |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2023SW003678 |
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| _version_ | 1841536399821504512 |
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| author | Dabin Xue Jian Yang Zhizhao Liu Wei Cong |
| author_facet | Dabin Xue Jian Yang Zhizhao Liu Wei Cong |
| author_sort | Dabin Xue |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Satellite navigation based on the Global Navigation Satellite System can provide aircraft with more precise guidance and increase flight efficiency. However, severe space weather events can cause satellite navigation failure due to the dramatic increase in total electron content and irregularities in the ionosphere. Consequently, ground navigation has to be used to replace satellite navigation, increasing aircraft separation standards and reducing airspace capacity. As a result, numerous flights may be delayed or even canceled, incurring significant financial losses. The occurrence peak of space weather events generally coincides with the 11‐year‐cycle solar maximum, and 2025 is expected to be the upcoming solar maximum. The Greater Bay Area (GBA), located in the equatorial ionization anomaly region of China, is particularly vulnerable to space weather impacts. To explore the effects of satellite navigation failure on flight operation, we conduct this looking‐forward study and propose solution methods from the standpoint of Air Traffic Management, by simulating satellite navigation failure scenarios. Based on the projected flight volume in 2025 related to the GBA airports, simulation results show that the economic costs can be tens of millions of Euros, which is dependent on the duration of satellite navigation failure and the time interval of ground navigation‐based landing. We believe that this study can be a benchmark for evaluating the potential economic effects of forthcoming space weather on flight operations. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-4e9e6201348d497b92a5ec3cf37795dd |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1542-7390 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2023-12-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Space Weather |
| spelling | doaj-art-4e9e6201348d497b92a5ec3cf37795dd2025-01-14T16:30:45ZengWileySpace Weather1542-73902023-12-012112n/an/a10.1029/2023SW003678Forward‐Looking Study of Solar Maximum Impact in 2025: Effects of Satellite Navigation Failure on Aviation Network Operation in the Greater Bay Area, ChinaDabin Xue0Jian Yang1Zhizhao Liu2Wei Cong3Department of Land Surveying and Geo‐Informatics The Hong Kong Polytechnic University Hong Kong ChinaDepartment of Earth and Space Sciences Southern University of Science and Technology Shenzhen ChinaDepartment of Land Surveying and Geo‐Informatics The Hong Kong Polytechnic University Hong Kong ChinaThe VariFlight Company Hefei ChinaAbstract Satellite navigation based on the Global Navigation Satellite System can provide aircraft with more precise guidance and increase flight efficiency. However, severe space weather events can cause satellite navigation failure due to the dramatic increase in total electron content and irregularities in the ionosphere. Consequently, ground navigation has to be used to replace satellite navigation, increasing aircraft separation standards and reducing airspace capacity. As a result, numerous flights may be delayed or even canceled, incurring significant financial losses. The occurrence peak of space weather events generally coincides with the 11‐year‐cycle solar maximum, and 2025 is expected to be the upcoming solar maximum. The Greater Bay Area (GBA), located in the equatorial ionization anomaly region of China, is particularly vulnerable to space weather impacts. To explore the effects of satellite navigation failure on flight operation, we conduct this looking‐forward study and propose solution methods from the standpoint of Air Traffic Management, by simulating satellite navigation failure scenarios. Based on the projected flight volume in 2025 related to the GBA airports, simulation results show that the economic costs can be tens of millions of Euros, which is dependent on the duration of satellite navigation failure and the time interval of ground navigation‐based landing. We believe that this study can be a benchmark for evaluating the potential economic effects of forthcoming space weather on flight operations.https://doi.org/10.1029/2023SW003678ionosphereGNSSsatellite navigation failureair traffic management |
| spellingShingle | Dabin Xue Jian Yang Zhizhao Liu Wei Cong Forward‐Looking Study of Solar Maximum Impact in 2025: Effects of Satellite Navigation Failure on Aviation Network Operation in the Greater Bay Area, China Space Weather ionosphere GNSS satellite navigation failure air traffic management |
| title | Forward‐Looking Study of Solar Maximum Impact in 2025: Effects of Satellite Navigation Failure on Aviation Network Operation in the Greater Bay Area, China |
| title_full | Forward‐Looking Study of Solar Maximum Impact in 2025: Effects of Satellite Navigation Failure on Aviation Network Operation in the Greater Bay Area, China |
| title_fullStr | Forward‐Looking Study of Solar Maximum Impact in 2025: Effects of Satellite Navigation Failure on Aviation Network Operation in the Greater Bay Area, China |
| title_full_unstemmed | Forward‐Looking Study of Solar Maximum Impact in 2025: Effects of Satellite Navigation Failure on Aviation Network Operation in the Greater Bay Area, China |
| title_short | Forward‐Looking Study of Solar Maximum Impact in 2025: Effects of Satellite Navigation Failure on Aviation Network Operation in the Greater Bay Area, China |
| title_sort | forward looking study of solar maximum impact in 2025 effects of satellite navigation failure on aviation network operation in the greater bay area china |
| topic | ionosphere GNSS satellite navigation failure air traffic management |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2023SW003678 |
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