Mitigation strategies can alleviate power system vulnerability to climate change and extreme weather: a case study on the Italian grid
This study explores compounding impacts of climate change on power system’s load and generation, emphasising the need to integrate adaptation and mitigation strategies into investment planning. We combine existing and novel empirical evidence to model impacts on: (i) air-conditioning demand; (ii) th...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/2634-4505/ada308 |
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| author | Alice Di Bella Francesco Pietro Colelli |
| author_facet | Alice Di Bella Francesco Pietro Colelli |
| author_sort | Alice Di Bella |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This study explores compounding impacts of climate change on power system’s load and generation, emphasising the need to integrate adaptation and mitigation strategies into investment planning. We combine existing and novel empirical evidence to model impacts on: (i) air-conditioning demand; (ii) thermal power outages; (iii) hydro-power generation shortages. Using a power dispatch and capacity expansion model, we analyse the Italian power system’s response to these climate impacts in 2030, integrating mitigation targets and optimising for cost-efficiency at an hourly resolution. We outline different meteorological scenarios to explore the impacts of both average climatic changes and the intensification of extreme weather events. We find that addressing extreme weather in power system planning will require an extra 5–8 GW of photovoltaic (PV) capacity, on top of the 50 GW of the additional solar PV capacity required by the mitigation target alone. Despite the higher initial investments, we find that the adoption of renewable technologies, especially PV, alleviates the power system’s vulnerability to climate change and extreme weather events. In fact, renewable energy sources are generally less vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, such as rising temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns, compared to thermal power and hydropower generation. Furthermore, enhancing short-term storage with lithium-ion batteries is crucial to counterbalance the reduced availability of dispatchable hydro generation. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-4e63a984f0d14759b94c73e43c8a331b |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2634-4505 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability |
| spelling | doaj-art-4e63a984f0d14759b94c73e43c8a331b2025-01-13T08:56:53ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability2634-45052025-01-015101500310.1088/2634-4505/ada308Mitigation strategies can alleviate power system vulnerability to climate change and extreme weather: a case study on the Italian gridAlice Di Bella0https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3814-7537Francesco Pietro Colelli1https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3507-8118Department of Electronics, Information and Bioengineering, Politecnico di Milano , Milan, Italy; CMCC Foundation—Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change , Lecce, Italy; RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment , Milan, ItalyCMCC Foundation—Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change , Lecce, Italy; RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment , Milan, Italy; Department of Economics, Ca’ Foscari University of Venice , Venice, ItalyThis study explores compounding impacts of climate change on power system’s load and generation, emphasising the need to integrate adaptation and mitigation strategies into investment planning. We combine existing and novel empirical evidence to model impacts on: (i) air-conditioning demand; (ii) thermal power outages; (iii) hydro-power generation shortages. Using a power dispatch and capacity expansion model, we analyse the Italian power system’s response to these climate impacts in 2030, integrating mitigation targets and optimising for cost-efficiency at an hourly resolution. We outline different meteorological scenarios to explore the impacts of both average climatic changes and the intensification of extreme weather events. We find that addressing extreme weather in power system planning will require an extra 5–8 GW of photovoltaic (PV) capacity, on top of the 50 GW of the additional solar PV capacity required by the mitigation target alone. Despite the higher initial investments, we find that the adoption of renewable technologies, especially PV, alleviates the power system’s vulnerability to climate change and extreme weather events. In fact, renewable energy sources are generally less vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, such as rising temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns, compared to thermal power and hydropower generation. Furthermore, enhancing short-term storage with lithium-ion batteries is crucial to counterbalance the reduced availability of dispatchable hydro generation.https://doi.org/10.1088/2634-4505/ada308climate change adaptationItalian power systempower system resiliencemitigation strategiesphotovoltaic power productionclimate impacts |
| spellingShingle | Alice Di Bella Francesco Pietro Colelli Mitigation strategies can alleviate power system vulnerability to climate change and extreme weather: a case study on the Italian grid Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability climate change adaptation Italian power system power system resilience mitigation strategies photovoltaic power production climate impacts |
| title | Mitigation strategies can alleviate power system vulnerability to climate change and extreme weather: a case study on the Italian grid |
| title_full | Mitigation strategies can alleviate power system vulnerability to climate change and extreme weather: a case study on the Italian grid |
| title_fullStr | Mitigation strategies can alleviate power system vulnerability to climate change and extreme weather: a case study on the Italian grid |
| title_full_unstemmed | Mitigation strategies can alleviate power system vulnerability to climate change and extreme weather: a case study on the Italian grid |
| title_short | Mitigation strategies can alleviate power system vulnerability to climate change and extreme weather: a case study on the Italian grid |
| title_sort | mitigation strategies can alleviate power system vulnerability to climate change and extreme weather a case study on the italian grid |
| topic | climate change adaptation Italian power system power system resilience mitigation strategies photovoltaic power production climate impacts |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/2634-4505/ada308 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT alicedibella mitigationstrategiescanalleviatepowersystemvulnerabilitytoclimatechangeandextremeweatheracasestudyontheitaliangrid AT francescopietrocolelli mitigationstrategiescanalleviatepowersystemvulnerabilitytoclimatechangeandextremeweatheracasestudyontheitaliangrid |