Reduction of uncertainties in rice yield response to elevated CO2 by experiment-model integration: A case study in East China

Accurate prediction of future rice yield needs the precise estimations of rice yield response to climate change factors, of which the most important one is the increasing carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations. Estimates of CO2 fertilization effect (CFE) on rice, however, still had large uncertainties....

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Main Authors: Zihao Wang, Yu Zhang, Xueni Wang, Yanfeng Ding, Songhan Wang
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: KeAi Communications Co., Ltd. 2024-12-01
Series:Crop Journal
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Online Access:http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214514124001429
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author Zihao Wang
Yu Zhang
Xueni Wang
Yanfeng Ding
Songhan Wang
author_facet Zihao Wang
Yu Zhang
Xueni Wang
Yanfeng Ding
Songhan Wang
author_sort Zihao Wang
collection DOAJ
description Accurate prediction of future rice yield needs the precise estimations of rice yield response to climate change factors, of which the most important one is the increasing carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations. Estimates of CO2 fertilization effect (CFE) on rice, however, still had large uncertainties. Therefore, using the rice planting areas in East China as the study area, we firstly compared the rice yields and CFE predicted by four state-of-the-art crop models, and found that the CFE predicted by these models had significant differences. We then quantified the CFE on rice yield using the field-controlled experiment conducted at Danyang site at Jiangsu province. Using CFE measurements from a field experiment as benchmark, we have developed an experiment–model integration approach aiming to reduce this variation. This study thus highlights the large CFE uncertainties of current crop models and provides us with a method to reduce this uncertainty, which is beneficial for the accurate prediction of future global rice yield in the context of climate change.
format Article
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institution Kabale University
issn 2214-5141
language English
publishDate 2024-12-01
publisher KeAi Communications Co., Ltd.
record_format Article
series Crop Journal
spelling doaj-art-4e3dbc8effc1493a8d51767616cb4f1a2024-12-26T08:53:15ZengKeAi Communications Co., Ltd.Crop Journal2214-51412024-12-0112618121816Reduction of uncertainties in rice yield response to elevated CO2 by experiment-model integration: A case study in East ChinaZihao Wang0Yu Zhang1Xueni Wang2Yanfeng Ding3Songhan Wang4Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Modern Crop Production, Key Laboratory of Crop Physiology and Ecology in Southern China, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, Jiangsu, ChinaJiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Modern Crop Production, Key Laboratory of Crop Physiology and Ecology in Southern China, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, Jiangsu, ChinaJiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Modern Crop Production, Key Laboratory of Crop Physiology and Ecology in Southern China, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, Jiangsu, ChinaJiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Modern Crop Production, Key Laboratory of Crop Physiology and Ecology in Southern China, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, Jiangsu, China; Sanya Research Institute of Nanjing Agriculture University, Sanya 572024, Hainan, ChinaJiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Modern Crop Production, Key Laboratory of Crop Physiology and Ecology in Southern China, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, Jiangsu, China; Sanya Research Institute of Nanjing Agriculture University, Sanya 572024, Hainan, China; Corresponding author.Accurate prediction of future rice yield needs the precise estimations of rice yield response to climate change factors, of which the most important one is the increasing carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations. Estimates of CO2 fertilization effect (CFE) on rice, however, still had large uncertainties. Therefore, using the rice planting areas in East China as the study area, we firstly compared the rice yields and CFE predicted by four state-of-the-art crop models, and found that the CFE predicted by these models had significant differences. We then quantified the CFE on rice yield using the field-controlled experiment conducted at Danyang site at Jiangsu province. Using CFE measurements from a field experiment as benchmark, we have developed an experiment–model integration approach aiming to reduce this variation. This study thus highlights the large CFE uncertainties of current crop models and provides us with a method to reduce this uncertainty, which is beneficial for the accurate prediction of future global rice yield in the context of climate change.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214514124001429Rice yieldElevated CO2Experiment-model integrationField experimentCrop models
spellingShingle Zihao Wang
Yu Zhang
Xueni Wang
Yanfeng Ding
Songhan Wang
Reduction of uncertainties in rice yield response to elevated CO2 by experiment-model integration: A case study in East China
Crop Journal
Rice yield
Elevated CO2
Experiment-model integration
Field experiment
Crop models
title Reduction of uncertainties in rice yield response to elevated CO2 by experiment-model integration: A case study in East China
title_full Reduction of uncertainties in rice yield response to elevated CO2 by experiment-model integration: A case study in East China
title_fullStr Reduction of uncertainties in rice yield response to elevated CO2 by experiment-model integration: A case study in East China
title_full_unstemmed Reduction of uncertainties in rice yield response to elevated CO2 by experiment-model integration: A case study in East China
title_short Reduction of uncertainties in rice yield response to elevated CO2 by experiment-model integration: A case study in East China
title_sort reduction of uncertainties in rice yield response to elevated co2 by experiment model integration a case study in east china
topic Rice yield
Elevated CO2
Experiment-model integration
Field experiment
Crop models
url http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214514124001429
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