Management of patients with venous thromboembolism and a high recurrence risk estimated by the Vienna Prediction Model: a prospective cohort study

Background: The Vienna Prediction Model (VPM) identifies patients with a first unprovoked deep vein thrombosis of the leg and/or pulmonary embolism who have a low recurrence risk and may, therefore, not benefit from extended-phase anticoagulation. Objectives: The aim of this study was to evaluate pa...

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Main Authors: Hana Šinkovec, Paul A. Kyrle, Lisbeth Eischer, Paul Gressenberger, Thomas Gary, Marianne Brodmann, Georg Heinze, Sabine Eichinger
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Elsevier 2025-01-01
Series:Research and Practice in Thrombosis and Haemostasis
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Online Access:http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2475037924003443
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author Hana Šinkovec
Paul A. Kyrle
Lisbeth Eischer
Paul Gressenberger
Thomas Gary
Marianne Brodmann
Georg Heinze
Sabine Eichinger
author_facet Hana Šinkovec
Paul A. Kyrle
Lisbeth Eischer
Paul Gressenberger
Thomas Gary
Marianne Brodmann
Georg Heinze
Sabine Eichinger
author_sort Hana Šinkovec
collection DOAJ
description Background: The Vienna Prediction Model (VPM) identifies patients with a first unprovoked deep vein thrombosis of the leg and/or pulmonary embolism who have a low recurrence risk and may, therefore, not benefit from extended-phase anticoagulation. Objectives: The aim of this study was to evaluate patients with a predicted high risk of recurrent venous thromboembolism (VTE). Methods and Results: We prospectively followed 266 patients in whom the VPM had predicted a recurrence risk of more than 5.5% at 1 year for a median of 13.5 months. Their median age was 56 years, and 96% were men. After the VPM risk assessment, 196 patients restarted anticoagulation. While on anticoagulation, none of the patients experienced recurrent VTE, whereas 4 patients had nonmajor clinically relevant bleeding (absolute bleeding rate, 1.8 [95% CI, 0.5-4.5] events per 100 patient-years). Seventy patients were left untreated after VPM risk assessment for various reasons. Among patients not using anticoagulation, 15 had recurrence (absolute recurrence rate, 18.1 [95% CI, 10.1, 29.9] events per 100 person-years). According to the extended Kaplan–Meier analysis, the probability of VTE recurrence in patients not on anticoagulation was 10.1% and 17.9% at 6 and 12 months after VPM risk assessment, respectively. Conclusion: Anticoagulant therapy is effective and safe in patients with an unprovoked VTE, in whom the VPM had predicted a high risk of recurrent VTE. If these patients are left untreated, the risk of recurrence is high.
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spelling doaj-art-4c1c7677c1e743f98ad813e88b230a5f2024-12-28T05:22:32ZengElsevierResearch and Practice in Thrombosis and Haemostasis2475-03792025-01-0191102649Management of patients with venous thromboembolism and a high recurrence risk estimated by the Vienna Prediction Model: a prospective cohort studyHana Šinkovec0Paul A. Kyrle1Lisbeth Eischer2Paul Gressenberger3Thomas Gary4Marianne Brodmann5Georg Heinze6Sabine Eichinger7Center for Medical Data Science, Institute of Clinical Biometrics, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, AustriaDivision of Hematology and Hemostasis, Department of Medicine I, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, Austria; Karl Landsteiner Institute of Thrombosis Research, Vienna, Austria; Correspondence Paul A. Kyrle, Division of Hematology and Hemostasis, Department of Medicine I, Medical University of Vienna, Waehringer Guertel 18-20, A-1090 Vienna, Austria.Division of Hematology and Hemostasis, Department of Medicine I, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, AustriaDivision of Angiology, Department of Medicine, Medical University of Graz, Graz, AustriaDivision of Angiology, Department of Medicine, Medical University of Graz, Graz, AustriaDivision of Angiology, Department of Medicine, Medical University of Graz, Graz, AustriaCenter for Medical Data Science, Institute of Clinical Biometrics, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, AustriaDivision of Hematology and Hemostasis, Department of Medicine I, Medical University of Vienna, Vienna, AustriaBackground: The Vienna Prediction Model (VPM) identifies patients with a first unprovoked deep vein thrombosis of the leg and/or pulmonary embolism who have a low recurrence risk and may, therefore, not benefit from extended-phase anticoagulation. Objectives: The aim of this study was to evaluate patients with a predicted high risk of recurrent venous thromboembolism (VTE). Methods and Results: We prospectively followed 266 patients in whom the VPM had predicted a recurrence risk of more than 5.5% at 1 year for a median of 13.5 months. Their median age was 56 years, and 96% were men. After the VPM risk assessment, 196 patients restarted anticoagulation. While on anticoagulation, none of the patients experienced recurrent VTE, whereas 4 patients had nonmajor clinically relevant bleeding (absolute bleeding rate, 1.8 [95% CI, 0.5-4.5] events per 100 patient-years). Seventy patients were left untreated after VPM risk assessment for various reasons. Among patients not using anticoagulation, 15 had recurrence (absolute recurrence rate, 18.1 [95% CI, 10.1, 29.9] events per 100 person-years). According to the extended Kaplan–Meier analysis, the probability of VTE recurrence in patients not on anticoagulation was 10.1% and 17.9% at 6 and 12 months after VPM risk assessment, respectively. Conclusion: Anticoagulant therapy is effective and safe in patients with an unprovoked VTE, in whom the VPM had predicted a high risk of recurrent VTE. If these patients are left untreated, the risk of recurrence is high.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2475037924003443deep vein thrombosispulmonary embolismvenous thromboembolismVienna Prediction Model recurrence
spellingShingle Hana Šinkovec
Paul A. Kyrle
Lisbeth Eischer
Paul Gressenberger
Thomas Gary
Marianne Brodmann
Georg Heinze
Sabine Eichinger
Management of patients with venous thromboembolism and a high recurrence risk estimated by the Vienna Prediction Model: a prospective cohort study
Research and Practice in Thrombosis and Haemostasis
deep vein thrombosis
pulmonary embolism
venous thromboembolism
Vienna Prediction Model recurrence
title Management of patients with venous thromboembolism and a high recurrence risk estimated by the Vienna Prediction Model: a prospective cohort study
title_full Management of patients with venous thromboembolism and a high recurrence risk estimated by the Vienna Prediction Model: a prospective cohort study
title_fullStr Management of patients with venous thromboembolism and a high recurrence risk estimated by the Vienna Prediction Model: a prospective cohort study
title_full_unstemmed Management of patients with venous thromboembolism and a high recurrence risk estimated by the Vienna Prediction Model: a prospective cohort study
title_short Management of patients with venous thromboembolism and a high recurrence risk estimated by the Vienna Prediction Model: a prospective cohort study
title_sort management of patients with venous thromboembolism and a high recurrence risk estimated by the vienna prediction model a prospective cohort study
topic deep vein thrombosis
pulmonary embolism
venous thromboembolism
Vienna Prediction Model recurrence
url http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2475037924003443
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