The Economic Effects of the Green Transition of the Greek Economy: An Input–Output Analysis

Decarbonization of the Greek economy requires significant investments in clean technologies. This will boost demand for goods and services and will create multiplier effects on output value added and employment, though reliance on imported technologies might increase the trade deficit. This study em...

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Main Authors: Theocharis Marinos, Maria Markaki, Yannis Sarafidis, Elena Georgopoulou, Sevastianos Mirasgedis
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: MDPI AG 2025-08-01
Series:Energies
Subjects:
Online Access:https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/18/15/4177
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author Theocharis Marinos
Maria Markaki
Yannis Sarafidis
Elena Georgopoulou
Sevastianos Mirasgedis
author_facet Theocharis Marinos
Maria Markaki
Yannis Sarafidis
Elena Georgopoulou
Sevastianos Mirasgedis
author_sort Theocharis Marinos
collection DOAJ
description Decarbonization of the Greek economy requires significant investments in clean technologies. This will boost demand for goods and services and will create multiplier effects on output value added and employment, though reliance on imported technologies might increase the trade deficit. This study employs input–output analysis to estimate the direct, indirect, and multiplier effects of green transition investments on Greek output, value added, employment, and imports across five-year intervals from 2025 to 2050. Two scenarios are considered: the former is based on the National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP), driven by a large-scale exploitation of RES and technologies promoting electrification of final demand, while the latter (developed in the context of the CLEVER project) prioritizes energy sufficiency and efficiency interventions to reduce final energy demand. In the NECP scenario, GDP increases by 3–10% (relative to 2023), and employment increases by 4–11%. The CLEVER scenario yields smaller direct effects—owing to lower investment levels—but larger induced impacts, since energy savings boost household disposable income. The consideration of three sub-scenarios adopting different levels of import-substitution rates in key manufacturing sectors exhibits pronounced divergence, indicating that targeted industrial policies can significantly amplify the domestic economic benefits of the green transition.
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series Energies
spelling doaj-art-4b4072e442da4a9f8ae40f7fc8c8d1c02025-08-20T03:36:06ZengMDPI AGEnergies1996-10732025-08-011815417710.3390/en18154177The Economic Effects of the Green Transition of the Greek Economy: An Input–Output AnalysisTheocharis Marinos0Maria Markaki1Yannis Sarafidis2Elena Georgopoulou3Sevastianos Mirasgedis4Institute for Environmental Research & Sustainable Development, National Observatory of Athens, 15236 Athens, GreeceDepartment of Management Science & Technology, Hellenic Mediterranean University, 72100 Agios Nikolaos, GreeceInstitute for Environmental Research & Sustainable Development, National Observatory of Athens, 15236 Athens, GreeceInstitute for Environmental Research & Sustainable Development, National Observatory of Athens, 15236 Athens, GreeceInstitute for Environmental Research & Sustainable Development, National Observatory of Athens, 15236 Athens, GreeceDecarbonization of the Greek economy requires significant investments in clean technologies. This will boost demand for goods and services and will create multiplier effects on output value added and employment, though reliance on imported technologies might increase the trade deficit. This study employs input–output analysis to estimate the direct, indirect, and multiplier effects of green transition investments on Greek output, value added, employment, and imports across five-year intervals from 2025 to 2050. Two scenarios are considered: the former is based on the National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP), driven by a large-scale exploitation of RES and technologies promoting electrification of final demand, while the latter (developed in the context of the CLEVER project) prioritizes energy sufficiency and efficiency interventions to reduce final energy demand. In the NECP scenario, GDP increases by 3–10% (relative to 2023), and employment increases by 4–11%. The CLEVER scenario yields smaller direct effects—owing to lower investment levels—but larger induced impacts, since energy savings boost household disposable income. The consideration of three sub-scenarios adopting different levels of import-substitution rates in key manufacturing sectors exhibits pronounced divergence, indicating that targeted industrial policies can significantly amplify the domestic economic benefits of the green transition.https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/18/15/4177green transitioninput–output analysismacro-economic effectsrenewable energy sourcesenergy efficiency
spellingShingle Theocharis Marinos
Maria Markaki
Yannis Sarafidis
Elena Georgopoulou
Sevastianos Mirasgedis
The Economic Effects of the Green Transition of the Greek Economy: An Input–Output Analysis
Energies
green transition
input–output analysis
macro-economic effects
renewable energy sources
energy efficiency
title The Economic Effects of the Green Transition of the Greek Economy: An Input–Output Analysis
title_full The Economic Effects of the Green Transition of the Greek Economy: An Input–Output Analysis
title_fullStr The Economic Effects of the Green Transition of the Greek Economy: An Input–Output Analysis
title_full_unstemmed The Economic Effects of the Green Transition of the Greek Economy: An Input–Output Analysis
title_short The Economic Effects of the Green Transition of the Greek Economy: An Input–Output Analysis
title_sort economic effects of the green transition of the greek economy an input output analysis
topic green transition
input–output analysis
macro-economic effects
renewable energy sources
energy efficiency
url https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/18/15/4177
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