The strategy to control the outbreak of an emerging respiratory infectious disease in a simulated Chinese megacity
Abstracts: Objectives: The emergence of respiratory infectious diseases (ERID) poses a significant threat to global public health. However, effectively managing ERID outbreaks in large cities remains a challenge. Methods: An age-structured Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model was dev...
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| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2025-01-01
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| Series: | Heliyon |
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| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405844024174142 |
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| author | Zhiqun Lei Ziwei Shi Jiao Huang Xiaolong Yan Jiayao Luo Meng Xu Qiuyue Wang Rui Wang Qi Wang Qu Cheng Sheng Wei |
| author_facet | Zhiqun Lei Ziwei Shi Jiao Huang Xiaolong Yan Jiayao Luo Meng Xu Qiuyue Wang Rui Wang Qi Wang Qu Cheng Sheng Wei |
| author_sort | Zhiqun Lei |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstracts: Objectives: The emergence of respiratory infectious diseases (ERID) poses a significant threat to global public health. However, effectively managing ERID outbreaks in large cities remains a challenge. Methods: An age-structured Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model was developed to predict the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in controlling ERID outbreaks. Four ERID outbreak scenarios were created based on varying levels of infectivity and pathogenicity. Based on the World Health Organization's (WHO) categorization for responding to the influenza pandemic, the combinations of NPIs were classified into five levels: base, any, moderate, high, and extraordinary levels (from mild to severe). The simulated progression of ERID outbreaks in a megacity were compared across different levels of NPI. Results: Our findings indicate that the response strategies should be formulated based on the epidemiological characteristics of ERID. In the low transmission scenarios, the mandatory NPIs were unnecessary to control ERID outbreaks regardless of their pathogenicity. However, even with low pathogenicity, severe NPIs are required to control the spread of ERID and minimize harm to the public in high transmission scenarios. Conclusion: The NPIs for the EIRD outbreak in a city should be tailored to the epidemiological characteristics to control its impact and protect public health. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-4add770d25f6434faa426de54ce19da5 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2405-8440 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-01-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Heliyon |
| spelling | doaj-art-4add770d25f6434faa426de54ce19da52025-01-17T04:51:06ZengElsevierHeliyon2405-84402025-01-01111e41383The strategy to control the outbreak of an emerging respiratory infectious disease in a simulated Chinese megacityZhiqun Lei0Ziwei Shi1Jiao Huang2Xiaolong Yan3Jiayao Luo4Meng Xu5Qiuyue Wang6Rui Wang7Qi Wang8Qu Cheng9Sheng Wei10Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, Hubei, ChinaDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, Hubei, ChinaCenter for Evidence-Based and Translational Medicine, Zhongnan Hospital of Wuhan University, Wuhan, ChinaDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, Hubei, ChinaDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, Hubei, ChinaDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, Hubei, ChinaDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, Hubei, ChinaDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, Hubei, ChinaDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, Hubei, ChinaDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, Hubei, China; Corresponding author.Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, Hubei, China; School of Public Health and Emergency Management, Southern University of Science and Technology, Guangdong, China; Corresponding author. Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, Hubei, China.Abstracts: Objectives: The emergence of respiratory infectious diseases (ERID) poses a significant threat to global public health. However, effectively managing ERID outbreaks in large cities remains a challenge. Methods: An age-structured Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) model was developed to predict the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in controlling ERID outbreaks. Four ERID outbreak scenarios were created based on varying levels of infectivity and pathogenicity. Based on the World Health Organization's (WHO) categorization for responding to the influenza pandemic, the combinations of NPIs were classified into five levels: base, any, moderate, high, and extraordinary levels (from mild to severe). The simulated progression of ERID outbreaks in a megacity were compared across different levels of NPI. Results: Our findings indicate that the response strategies should be formulated based on the epidemiological characteristics of ERID. In the low transmission scenarios, the mandatory NPIs were unnecessary to control ERID outbreaks regardless of their pathogenicity. However, even with low pathogenicity, severe NPIs are required to control the spread of ERID and minimize harm to the public in high transmission scenarios. Conclusion: The NPIs for the EIRD outbreak in a city should be tailored to the epidemiological characteristics to control its impact and protect public health.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405844024174142Non-pharmaceutical interventionsERID pandemicEpidemiology characteristicPublic healthHealthcare system |
| spellingShingle | Zhiqun Lei Ziwei Shi Jiao Huang Xiaolong Yan Jiayao Luo Meng Xu Qiuyue Wang Rui Wang Qi Wang Qu Cheng Sheng Wei The strategy to control the outbreak of an emerging respiratory infectious disease in a simulated Chinese megacity Heliyon Non-pharmaceutical interventions ERID pandemic Epidemiology characteristic Public health Healthcare system |
| title | The strategy to control the outbreak of an emerging respiratory infectious disease in a simulated Chinese megacity |
| title_full | The strategy to control the outbreak of an emerging respiratory infectious disease in a simulated Chinese megacity |
| title_fullStr | The strategy to control the outbreak of an emerging respiratory infectious disease in a simulated Chinese megacity |
| title_full_unstemmed | The strategy to control the outbreak of an emerging respiratory infectious disease in a simulated Chinese megacity |
| title_short | The strategy to control the outbreak of an emerging respiratory infectious disease in a simulated Chinese megacity |
| title_sort | strategy to control the outbreak of an emerging respiratory infectious disease in a simulated chinese megacity |
| topic | Non-pharmaceutical interventions ERID pandemic Epidemiology characteristic Public health Healthcare system |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405844024174142 |
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