Basin-wide and coastal modes of north tropical Atlantic variability have distinct impacts on hurricanes
Abstract Warm sea surface temperature anomalies in the north tropical Atlantic are conducive to increased intensity and frequency of Atlantic hurricanes. The period 2023-2024 saw two consecutive warm events but with distinct anomaly patterns. Here we use observations and model outputs over the past...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2025-07-01
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| Series: | Communications Earth & Environment |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02529-1 |
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| author | Yi Liu Michael J. McPhaden Wenju Cai Yu Zhang Jiuwei Zhao Hyacinth C. Nnamchi Xiaopei Lin Ziguang Li Jun-Chao Yang |
| author_facet | Yi Liu Michael J. McPhaden Wenju Cai Yu Zhang Jiuwei Zhao Hyacinth C. Nnamchi Xiaopei Lin Ziguang Li Jun-Chao Yang |
| author_sort | Yi Liu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Warm sea surface temperature anomalies in the north tropical Atlantic are conducive to increased intensity and frequency of Atlantic hurricanes. The period 2023-2024 saw two consecutive warm events but with distinct anomaly patterns. Here we use observations and model outputs over the past several decades to determine whether there exists inherent diversity in north tropical Atlantic surface temperature spatial structures and impacts. We find two distinctive modes of variability: a basin-wide mode and a coastal mode, underpinned by differing relationships between air-sea heat flux and sea surface temperature anomalies. The basin-wide mode has a stronger influence on Atlantic hurricane activity due to its more westward and persistent anomaly pattern. Since the 1990s, the well-known impact from El Niño-Southern Oscillation on the north tropical Atlantic is felt through its influence on the basin-wide mode. Our results highlight the importance of distinguishing the two distinctive modes in assessing and predicting their impacts. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-4a8c8a2bc69944cf9b43a1b9d5650180 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2662-4435 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2025-07-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Communications Earth & Environment |
| spelling | doaj-art-4a8c8a2bc69944cf9b43a1b9d56501802025-08-20T03:43:34ZengNature PortfolioCommunications Earth & Environment2662-44352025-07-01611910.1038/s43247-025-02529-1Basin-wide and coastal modes of north tropical Atlantic variability have distinct impacts on hurricanesYi Liu0Michael J. McPhaden1Wenju Cai2Yu Zhang3Jiuwei Zhao4Hyacinth C. Nnamchi5Xiaopei Lin6Ziguang Li7Jun-Chao Yang8NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental LaboratoryNOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental LaboratoryState Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography/Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System/Sanya Oceanographic Institution, Ocean University of ChinaState Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography/Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System/Sanya Oceanographic Institution, Ocean University of ChinaCollaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Institute for Climate and Application Research, Nanjing University of Information Science & TechnologyGEOMAR-Helmholtz Centre for Ocean ResearchState Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography/Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System/Sanya Oceanographic Institution, Ocean University of ChinaState Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography/Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System/Sanya Oceanographic Institution, Ocean University of ChinaState Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography/Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System/Sanya Oceanographic Institution, Ocean University of ChinaAbstract Warm sea surface temperature anomalies in the north tropical Atlantic are conducive to increased intensity and frequency of Atlantic hurricanes. The period 2023-2024 saw two consecutive warm events but with distinct anomaly patterns. Here we use observations and model outputs over the past several decades to determine whether there exists inherent diversity in north tropical Atlantic surface temperature spatial structures and impacts. We find two distinctive modes of variability: a basin-wide mode and a coastal mode, underpinned by differing relationships between air-sea heat flux and sea surface temperature anomalies. The basin-wide mode has a stronger influence on Atlantic hurricane activity due to its more westward and persistent anomaly pattern. Since the 1990s, the well-known impact from El Niño-Southern Oscillation on the north tropical Atlantic is felt through its influence on the basin-wide mode. Our results highlight the importance of distinguishing the two distinctive modes in assessing and predicting their impacts.https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02529-1 |
| spellingShingle | Yi Liu Michael J. McPhaden Wenju Cai Yu Zhang Jiuwei Zhao Hyacinth C. Nnamchi Xiaopei Lin Ziguang Li Jun-Chao Yang Basin-wide and coastal modes of north tropical Atlantic variability have distinct impacts on hurricanes Communications Earth & Environment |
| title | Basin-wide and coastal modes of north tropical Atlantic variability have distinct impacts on hurricanes |
| title_full | Basin-wide and coastal modes of north tropical Atlantic variability have distinct impacts on hurricanes |
| title_fullStr | Basin-wide and coastal modes of north tropical Atlantic variability have distinct impacts on hurricanes |
| title_full_unstemmed | Basin-wide and coastal modes of north tropical Atlantic variability have distinct impacts on hurricanes |
| title_short | Basin-wide and coastal modes of north tropical Atlantic variability have distinct impacts on hurricanes |
| title_sort | basin wide and coastal modes of north tropical atlantic variability have distinct impacts on hurricanes |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02529-1 |
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