Estimation of solar radiation and photovoltaic power potential of Türkiye using ANFIS

Abstract In this study, we estimated global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and photovoltaic (PV) power potential in Türkiye using fan Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) with inputs from Meteonorm 8.0. We considered latitude and longitude for GHI estimation and added tilt and azimuth angles f...

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Main Authors: Murat Ispir, Muharrem Hilmi Aksoy, Mete Kalyoncu
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Springer 2025-05-01
Series:Journal of King Saud University: Engineering Sciences
Subjects:
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1007/s44444-025-00002-0
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author Murat Ispir
Muharrem Hilmi Aksoy
Mete Kalyoncu
author_facet Murat Ispir
Muharrem Hilmi Aksoy
Mete Kalyoncu
author_sort Murat Ispir
collection DOAJ
description Abstract In this study, we estimated global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and photovoltaic (PV) power potential in Türkiye using fan Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) with inputs from Meteonorm 8.0. We considered latitude and longitude for GHI estimation and added tilt and azimuth angles for PV power potential. Training and testing data yielded Root Mean Square Errors (RMSE) of 10.429 kWh/m2/year and 35.395 kWh/m2/year for GHI, and 3.984 kWh/kWp/year and 39.624 kWh/kWp/year for PV power potential, respectively. The coefficient of determination ( $${R}^{2}$$ R 2 ) was 0.995 for GHI training data, and $${R}^{2}$$ R 2 = 0.946 for GHI testing data, and $${R}^{2}$$ R 2 = 0.993 for PV power potential training data, and $${R}^{2}$$ R 2 = 0.951 for PV power potential testing data. Results showed that the southeast of Türkiye had the highest GHI, around 1900 kWh/m2/year, while the north had the lowest, around 1400 kWh/m2/year. The highest electricity production occurred in the south, approximately 1900 kWh/kWp/year, while the north yielded the least, about 1450 kWh/kWp/year. Tilt angle increase and azimuth angles of -90° or + 90° led to decreased electricity production. This study provides precise GHI and PV power potential estimates for Türkiye, using ANFIS with diverse meteorological inputs.
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institution Kabale University
issn 1018-3639
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publishDate 2025-05-01
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series Journal of King Saud University: Engineering Sciences
spelling doaj-art-4a3e5cda868f4cfe8cab99f937e72afa2025-08-20T04:03:03ZengSpringerJournal of King Saud University: Engineering Sciences1018-36392213-15582025-05-01371-211210.1007/s44444-025-00002-0Estimation of solar radiation and photovoltaic power potential of Türkiye using ANFISMurat Ispir0Muharrem Hilmi Aksoy1Mete Kalyoncu2Konya Technical University Faculty of Engineering and Natural SciencesKonya Technical University Faculty of Engineering and Natural SciencesKonya Technical University Faculty of Engineering and Natural SciencesAbstract In this study, we estimated global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and photovoltaic (PV) power potential in Türkiye using fan Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) with inputs from Meteonorm 8.0. We considered latitude and longitude for GHI estimation and added tilt and azimuth angles for PV power potential. Training and testing data yielded Root Mean Square Errors (RMSE) of 10.429 kWh/m2/year and 35.395 kWh/m2/year for GHI, and 3.984 kWh/kWp/year and 39.624 kWh/kWp/year for PV power potential, respectively. The coefficient of determination ( $${R}^{2}$$ R 2 ) was 0.995 for GHI training data, and $${R}^{2}$$ R 2 = 0.946 for GHI testing data, and $${R}^{2}$$ R 2 = 0.993 for PV power potential training data, and $${R}^{2}$$ R 2 = 0.951 for PV power potential testing data. Results showed that the southeast of Türkiye had the highest GHI, around 1900 kWh/m2/year, while the north had the lowest, around 1400 kWh/m2/year. The highest electricity production occurred in the south, approximately 1900 kWh/kWp/year, while the north yielded the least, about 1450 kWh/kWp/year. Tilt angle increase and azimuth angles of -90° or + 90° led to decreased electricity production. This study provides precise GHI and PV power potential estimates for Türkiye, using ANFIS with diverse meteorological inputs.https://doi.org/10.1007/s44444-025-00002-0ANFISEstimationGlobal Horizontal IrradiationPhotovoltaicPVsyst
spellingShingle Murat Ispir
Muharrem Hilmi Aksoy
Mete Kalyoncu
Estimation of solar radiation and photovoltaic power potential of Türkiye using ANFIS
Journal of King Saud University: Engineering Sciences
ANFIS
Estimation
Global Horizontal Irradiation
Photovoltaic
PVsyst
title Estimation of solar radiation and photovoltaic power potential of Türkiye using ANFIS
title_full Estimation of solar radiation and photovoltaic power potential of Türkiye using ANFIS
title_fullStr Estimation of solar radiation and photovoltaic power potential of Türkiye using ANFIS
title_full_unstemmed Estimation of solar radiation and photovoltaic power potential of Türkiye using ANFIS
title_short Estimation of solar radiation and photovoltaic power potential of Türkiye using ANFIS
title_sort estimation of solar radiation and photovoltaic power potential of turkiye using anfis
topic ANFIS
Estimation
Global Horizontal Irradiation
Photovoltaic
PVsyst
url https://doi.org/10.1007/s44444-025-00002-0
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AT muharremhilmiaksoy estimationofsolarradiationandphotovoltaicpowerpotentialofturkiyeusinganfis
AT metekalyoncu estimationofsolarradiationandphotovoltaicpowerpotentialofturkiyeusinganfis