Anticorrelation of net uptake of atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> by the world ocean and terrestrial biosphere in current carbon cycle models
<p>The rate at which atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2</sub></span>) would decrease in response to a decrease in anthropogenic emissions or cessation (net zero emissions) is of great scientific and societal interest. Such a decr...
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Copernicus Publications
2024-11-01
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| Series: | Biogeosciences |
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| author | S. E. Schwartz |
| author_facet | S. E. Schwartz |
| author_sort | S. E. Schwartz |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>The rate at which atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2</sub></span>) would decrease in response to a decrease in anthropogenic emissions or cessation (net zero emissions) is of great scientific and societal interest. Such a decrease in atmospheric CO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2</sub></span> on the centennial scale would be due essentially entirely to transfer of carbon into the world ocean (WO) and the terrestrial biosphere (TB), which are sink compartments on this timescale. The rate of decrease in excess atmospheric CO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2</sub></span> and the apportionment of this decrease into the two sink compartments have been examined in two prior model intercomparison studies, subsequent either to a pulse emission of CO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2</sub></span> or to abrupt cessation of anthropogenic CO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2</sub></span> emissions. The present study examines and quantifies inter-model anticorrelation in those studies in the net rate and extent of uptake of CO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2</sub></span> into the two sink compartments. Specifically, in each study the time-dependent coefficients characterizing the net transfer rate into the two sink compartments (evaluated as the net transfer rate normalized to excess atmospheric CO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2</sub></span> above the pre-pulse amount for the pulse experiment or as the net transfer rate divided by excess atmospheric CO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2</sub></span> above the preindustrial amount for the abrupt cessation experiment) were found to exhibit strong anticorrelation across the participating models. That is, models for which the normalized rate of uptake into the WO was high exhibited low uptake rate into the TB and vice versa. This anticorrelation in net transfer rate results in anticorrelation in net uptake extent into the two compartments that is substantially greater than would be expected simply from competition for excess CO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2</sub></span> between the two sink compartments. This anticorrelation, which is manifested in diminished inter-model diversity, can lead to artificially enhanced confidence in current understanding of the consequences of potential future reductions of CO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2</sub></span> emissions and in the global warming potentials of non-CO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2</sub></span> greenhouse gases relative to that of CO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2</sub></span>.</p> |
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| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1726-4170 1726-4189 |
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| publishDate | 2024-11-01 |
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| spelling | doaj-art-494f30e3f1dc4a00b5bf6d762e01ddb62024-11-15T08:20:37ZengCopernicus PublicationsBiogeosciences1726-41701726-41892024-11-01215045505710.5194/bg-21-5045-2024Anticorrelation of net uptake of atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> by the world ocean and terrestrial biosphere in current carbon cycle modelsS. E. Schwartz0School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY 11794, USA<p>The rate at which atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2</sub></span>) would decrease in response to a decrease in anthropogenic emissions or cessation (net zero emissions) is of great scientific and societal interest. Such a decrease in atmospheric CO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2</sub></span> on the centennial scale would be due essentially entirely to transfer of carbon into the world ocean (WO) and the terrestrial biosphere (TB), which are sink compartments on this timescale. The rate of decrease in excess atmospheric CO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2</sub></span> and the apportionment of this decrease into the two sink compartments have been examined in two prior model intercomparison studies, subsequent either to a pulse emission of CO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2</sub></span> or to abrupt cessation of anthropogenic CO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2</sub></span> emissions. The present study examines and quantifies inter-model anticorrelation in those studies in the net rate and extent of uptake of CO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2</sub></span> into the two sink compartments. Specifically, in each study the time-dependent coefficients characterizing the net transfer rate into the two sink compartments (evaluated as the net transfer rate normalized to excess atmospheric CO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2</sub></span> above the pre-pulse amount for the pulse experiment or as the net transfer rate divided by excess atmospheric CO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2</sub></span> above the preindustrial amount for the abrupt cessation experiment) were found to exhibit strong anticorrelation across the participating models. That is, models for which the normalized rate of uptake into the WO was high exhibited low uptake rate into the TB and vice versa. This anticorrelation in net transfer rate results in anticorrelation in net uptake extent into the two compartments that is substantially greater than would be expected simply from competition for excess CO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2</sub></span> between the two sink compartments. This anticorrelation, which is manifested in diminished inter-model diversity, can lead to artificially enhanced confidence in current understanding of the consequences of potential future reductions of CO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2</sub></span> emissions and in the global warming potentials of non-CO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2</sub></span> greenhouse gases relative to that of CO<span class="inline-formula"><sub>2</sub></span>.</p>https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/21/5045/2024/bg-21-5045-2024.pdf |
| spellingShingle | S. E. Schwartz Anticorrelation of net uptake of atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> by the world ocean and terrestrial biosphere in current carbon cycle models Biogeosciences |
| title | Anticorrelation of net uptake of atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> by the world ocean and terrestrial biosphere in current carbon cycle models |
| title_full | Anticorrelation of net uptake of atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> by the world ocean and terrestrial biosphere in current carbon cycle models |
| title_fullStr | Anticorrelation of net uptake of atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> by the world ocean and terrestrial biosphere in current carbon cycle models |
| title_full_unstemmed | Anticorrelation of net uptake of atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> by the world ocean and terrestrial biosphere in current carbon cycle models |
| title_short | Anticorrelation of net uptake of atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> by the world ocean and terrestrial biosphere in current carbon cycle models |
| title_sort | anticorrelation of net uptake of atmospheric co sub 2 sub by the world ocean and terrestrial biosphere in current carbon cycle models |
| url | https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/21/5045/2024/bg-21-5045-2024.pdf |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT seschwartz anticorrelationofnetuptakeofatmosphericcosub2subbytheworldoceanandterrestrialbiosphereincurrentcarboncyclemodels |