Examining the Economic Costs of the 2003 Halloween Storm Effects on the North Hemisphere Aviation Using Flight Data in 2019
Abstract Space weather can impede normal aviation operations through communication blackouts, GNSS‐based navigation and surveillance failures, and elevated cosmic radiation, consequently resulting in necessary flight plan adjustments and considerable economic costs. Although space weather effects ha...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Wiley
2023-03-01
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| Series: | Space Weather |
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| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1029/2022SW003381 |
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| _version_ | 1841536478537056256 |
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| author | Dabin Xue Jian Yang Zhizhao Liu Shiwei Yu |
| author_facet | Dabin Xue Jian Yang Zhizhao Liu Shiwei Yu |
| author_sort | Dabin Xue |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Space weather can impede normal aviation operations through communication blackouts, GNSS‐based navigation and surveillance failures, and elevated cosmic radiation, consequently resulting in necessary flight plan adjustments and considerable economic costs. Although space weather effects have been heavily emphasized, the literature on the economic effects on aviation is limited. In this study, we estimate the economic impacts from the perspective of air traffic management, assuming an extremely strong space weather event like the 2003 Halloween solar storm would occur in 2019 with a booming air transport industry in recent years. We find that (a) as the high‐frequency communication blackouts may lead to polar flight rerouting and cancellations, possible daily economic costs could range from €0.21 million to €2.20 million per day; (b) during the satellite navigation failure period in the continental United States, as aircraft utilizes ground navigation aids as a backup, the increased flying time and disrupted descent approach operations may lead to additional cost of €2.43 million; (c) a surveillance failure can reduce airspace capacity and increase the workload of air traffic controllers, resulting in fatigue and perhaps risking flight safety; (d) to prevent massive cosmic radiation exposure, the economic costs of flight cancellations can be from €2.77 million to €48.97 million, depending on the cosmic radiation dose limits for a given plan. Our study indicates that severe space weather events may briefly disrupt normal aviation operations and cause substantial economic losses if future aviation equipment and technology are fragile to its effects. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-46dacf4bdc994a8d9f651079be615836 |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 1542-7390 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2023-03-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Space Weather |
| spelling | doaj-art-46dacf4bdc994a8d9f651079be6158362025-01-14T16:27:17ZengWileySpace Weather1542-73902023-03-01213n/an/a10.1029/2022SW003381Examining the Economic Costs of the 2003 Halloween Storm Effects on the North Hemisphere Aviation Using Flight Data in 2019Dabin Xue0Jian Yang1Zhizhao Liu2Shiwei Yu3Department of Land Surveying and Geo‐Informatics The Hong Kong Polytechnic University Hong Kong ChinaDepartment of Earth and Space Sciences Southern University of Science and Technology Shenzhen ChinaDepartment of Land Surveying and Geo‐Informatics The Hong Kong Polytechnic University Hong Kong ChinaDepartment of Land Surveying and Geo‐Informatics The Hong Kong Polytechnic University Hong Kong ChinaAbstract Space weather can impede normal aviation operations through communication blackouts, GNSS‐based navigation and surveillance failures, and elevated cosmic radiation, consequently resulting in necessary flight plan adjustments and considerable economic costs. Although space weather effects have been heavily emphasized, the literature on the economic effects on aviation is limited. In this study, we estimate the economic impacts from the perspective of air traffic management, assuming an extremely strong space weather event like the 2003 Halloween solar storm would occur in 2019 with a booming air transport industry in recent years. We find that (a) as the high‐frequency communication blackouts may lead to polar flight rerouting and cancellations, possible daily economic costs could range from €0.21 million to €2.20 million per day; (b) during the satellite navigation failure period in the continental United States, as aircraft utilizes ground navigation aids as a backup, the increased flying time and disrupted descent approach operations may lead to additional cost of €2.43 million; (c) a surveillance failure can reduce airspace capacity and increase the workload of air traffic controllers, resulting in fatigue and perhaps risking flight safety; (d) to prevent massive cosmic radiation exposure, the economic costs of flight cancellations can be from €2.77 million to €48.97 million, depending on the cosmic radiation dose limits for a given plan. Our study indicates that severe space weather events may briefly disrupt normal aviation operations and cause substantial economic losses if future aviation equipment and technology are fragile to its effects.https://doi.org/10.1029/2022SW003381space weathereconomic costscommunication blackoutsatellite‐based navigation failuresurveillance failurecosmic radiation |
| spellingShingle | Dabin Xue Jian Yang Zhizhao Liu Shiwei Yu Examining the Economic Costs of the 2003 Halloween Storm Effects on the North Hemisphere Aviation Using Flight Data in 2019 Space Weather space weather economic costs communication blackout satellite‐based navigation failure surveillance failure cosmic radiation |
| title | Examining the Economic Costs of the 2003 Halloween Storm Effects on the North Hemisphere Aviation Using Flight Data in 2019 |
| title_full | Examining the Economic Costs of the 2003 Halloween Storm Effects on the North Hemisphere Aviation Using Flight Data in 2019 |
| title_fullStr | Examining the Economic Costs of the 2003 Halloween Storm Effects on the North Hemisphere Aviation Using Flight Data in 2019 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Examining the Economic Costs of the 2003 Halloween Storm Effects on the North Hemisphere Aviation Using Flight Data in 2019 |
| title_short | Examining the Economic Costs of the 2003 Halloween Storm Effects on the North Hemisphere Aviation Using Flight Data in 2019 |
| title_sort | examining the economic costs of the 2003 halloween storm effects on the north hemisphere aviation using flight data in 2019 |
| topic | space weather economic costs communication blackout satellite‐based navigation failure surveillance failure cosmic radiation |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1029/2022SW003381 |
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