Average Based-FTS Markov Chain Based on a Modified Frequency Density Partitioning to Predict COVID-19 in Central Java
COVID-19 is still a pandemic in Indonesia, and Central Java is no exception. New positive cases of COVID-19 in Central Java are being discovered every day. Therefore, researchers try to predict new positive cases in Central Java. Many forecasting methods are currently developing, one of which is fuz...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Mathematics Department UIN Maulana Malik Ibrahim Malang
2022-03-01
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| Series: | Cauchy: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi |
| Online Access: | https://ejournal.uin-malang.ac.id/index.php/Math/article/view/13371 |
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| author | Susilo Hariyanto Zaenurrohman Zaenurrohman Titi Udjiani SRRM |
| author_facet | Susilo Hariyanto Zaenurrohman Zaenurrohman Titi Udjiani SRRM |
| author_sort | Susilo Hariyanto |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | COVID-19 is still a pandemic in Indonesia, and Central Java is no exception. New positive cases of COVID-19 in Central Java are being discovered every day. Therefore, researchers try to predict new positive cases in Central Java. Many forecasting methods are currently developing, one of which is fuzzy time series (FTS). FTS has been also developed until now, one of which is a development of the FTS by combining the Markov chain as a defuzzification process. In FTS there is no definite formula to determine the length of the interval, so the researcher uses an average based to determine the length of the interval in the FTS Markov chain. Next, the researcher repartitioned based on the modified frequency density. The results of this study are that forecasting new positive cases of COVID-19 in Central Java using the average based-FTS Markov chain based on a modified frequency density partitioning method has a good level of accuracy, this can be seen from the MAPE value of the method. |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj-art-446a69e4f69a44d4bb37a84f93b17b1f |
| institution | Kabale University |
| issn | 2086-0382 2477-3344 |
| language | English |
| publishDate | 2022-03-01 |
| publisher | Mathematics Department UIN Maulana Malik Ibrahim Malang |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Cauchy: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi |
| spelling | doaj-art-446a69e4f69a44d4bb37a84f93b17b1f2025-08-20T03:48:30ZengMathematics Department UIN Maulana Malik Ibrahim MalangCauchy: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi2086-03822477-33442022-03-017223123910.18860/ca.v7i2.133716158Average Based-FTS Markov Chain Based on a Modified Frequency Density Partitioning to Predict COVID-19 in Central JavaSusilo Hariyanto0Zaenurrohman Zaenurrohman1Titi Udjiani SRRM2Department of Mathematic, Faculty Science and Mathematics, Diponegoro UniversityMagister Program of Mathematics, Department of Mathematic, Faculty Science and Mathematics, Diponegoro UniversityDepartment of Mathematic, Faculty Science and Mathematics, Diponegoro UniversityCOVID-19 is still a pandemic in Indonesia, and Central Java is no exception. New positive cases of COVID-19 in Central Java are being discovered every day. Therefore, researchers try to predict new positive cases in Central Java. Many forecasting methods are currently developing, one of which is fuzzy time series (FTS). FTS has been also developed until now, one of which is a development of the FTS by combining the Markov chain as a defuzzification process. In FTS there is no definite formula to determine the length of the interval, so the researcher uses an average based to determine the length of the interval in the FTS Markov chain. Next, the researcher repartitioned based on the modified frequency density. The results of this study are that forecasting new positive cases of COVID-19 in Central Java using the average based-FTS Markov chain based on a modified frequency density partitioning method has a good level of accuracy, this can be seen from the MAPE value of the method.https://ejournal.uin-malang.ac.id/index.php/Math/article/view/13371 |
| spellingShingle | Susilo Hariyanto Zaenurrohman Zaenurrohman Titi Udjiani SRRM Average Based-FTS Markov Chain Based on a Modified Frequency Density Partitioning to Predict COVID-19 in Central Java Cauchy: Jurnal Matematika Murni dan Aplikasi |
| title | Average Based-FTS Markov Chain Based on a Modified Frequency Density Partitioning to Predict COVID-19 in Central Java |
| title_full | Average Based-FTS Markov Chain Based on a Modified Frequency Density Partitioning to Predict COVID-19 in Central Java |
| title_fullStr | Average Based-FTS Markov Chain Based on a Modified Frequency Density Partitioning to Predict COVID-19 in Central Java |
| title_full_unstemmed | Average Based-FTS Markov Chain Based on a Modified Frequency Density Partitioning to Predict COVID-19 in Central Java |
| title_short | Average Based-FTS Markov Chain Based on a Modified Frequency Density Partitioning to Predict COVID-19 in Central Java |
| title_sort | average based fts markov chain based on a modified frequency density partitioning to predict covid 19 in central java |
| url | https://ejournal.uin-malang.ac.id/index.php/Math/article/view/13371 |
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